Re: July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

[amugs]

68* here tonight - gorgeous weather -WOW is all I can say - it feels like late August no more like September - i do not want it to be September for I would have to go to school - boo hoo!!

[algae888]

mugs after such an extreme winter what a tranquil summer. I love it! it s so calm that the people who like summer weather (ie: t/storms and hurricanes) are hyping every drop of rain and gust of wind. long range looks even calmer. if this keeps up it may be one of the quietest summers in terms of severe weather that we have ever experienced

[jmanley32]

Algae, first I wanted to comment on the yankees game, of course it was called because of all the cloud to ground lightning. They cannot take that risk, If you did not see the lightning I am not sure how you missed it it was quite a show. remember not all people have been lucky with a quiet severe weather summer. We had damage here from some storms and major flooding from the last storms last week. Some people I know lost their homes in upstate NY (and a little girl and mother lost their lives) and my friend in PA lost power and a bunch of trees. So not EVERYONE, has had a quiet severe storm summer. So maybe in YOUR backyard its been quiet but remember to consider that these storms are very local and as you said a while back so close yet so far. The summer is coming into the time that usually the worst of severe weather can happen so I wouldn't say its necessarily going to be quiet. SPC already has another bout not far from the area for day 3 and 4, looks like a fairly potent storm system coming in 999 mb low on a front looks like. Frank do you think this will affect the area at all?

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like some rain showers Sunday into Monday. Nothing severe. Then the cool down begins on Tuesday, with low humidity and temps. in the 70's

[jmanley32]

Sounds nice, if it ain't going to be anything exciting I will take dry and cool weather over boring drizzle or showers.

[algae888]

Ill say it .again hyping up and non event for this weekend into early next week. you know weather is always happening and someone is always going to be affected by it. thunderstorms can pop up anytime can cause damage to a few homes and a few people. I'm talking about a major tornado outbreak or a land falling hurricane with thousands of people and hundreds of homes are Affected. that has not happened this year and doesn't look like that's going to happen anytime in the near future but after reading some of the posts on here you would think that was the case. all I'm saying is that we can discuss the weather in a rational and sensible way without hyping it up.  1 to 3 inch snow is much different then  1 to 2 feet.

[algae888]

Btw when they called the Yankee game the lightning had ended they called it because of the rain which when I was driving by it wasnt raining all that hard.

[jmanley32]

Oh didn't know that, then thats kinda silly.

[amugs]

NAM for Sunday Night into Mon - it's the NAM I now but interesting.



Upton calling for a tornado outbreak??

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD/POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A
CONCURRENT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INTO THE REGION...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK INVERSION WILL
EXIST AROUND 850 HPA...A BRIEFLY ROTATING STORM AND/OR WEAK
TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE NYC BOROUGHS AND LONG ISLAND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY...PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.85 INCH INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

[jmanley32]

Is that sarcasm mugs or are you serious? It mentions the possibility of a possible rotation storm, not a outbreak so unless you tell me otherwise I am assuming you are joking because of the hyping we (or I) should not be doing. And I don't feel I am hyping anything, All i mentioned was that spc had areas highlighted near the area. I do not see how that is hyping. I never said OMG we are going to have tornados get down lol

[Quietace]

Is that sarcasm mugs or are you serious?  It mentions the possibility of a possible rotation storm, not a outbreak so unless you tell me otherwise I am assuming you are joking because of the hyping we (or I) should not be doing.  And I don't feel I am hyping anything, All i mentioned was that spc had areas highlighted near the area.  I do not see how that is hyping.  I never said OMG we are going to have tornados get down lol

No, serious. Have a strong vort pushing down from Canada across the GL with a trough. Indices look favorable for strong storms. The GFS, Euro, NAM, and RGEM, have a MCS forming somewhere in the Northeast, but in different areas. The Euro Farthest North, the RGEM has many of storms south of the area until hr 48. Yet, if we don't get hit by the complex, we will still have the potential for plenty of storms to fire from day time heating and the still strong indices. Interested to see the 12z models and how they handle the system and where they trend the parameters.

[jmanley32]

Yeah Ace I investigated after posting that wow. Imagine a tornado outbreak in NYC area (what constitutes a outbreak?) The SPC maps changed today to include all of the northeast in 15% and 30% close to the area (and 45% to the far south west wow). I guess it will all depend on the MCS and where it goes like you said. Isn't a MCS basically a Derecho since it may travel very far from what I have read? CAPE values are crazy high for next 24-36 hrs pushing 3000-4000 in some areas at the time frame of the storms, just learning now about the other factors such as shear which I read is supposed to be high along with other factors I have yet to fully understand. Not hyping it but this def looks like it could be quite a event for at least some folks tomorrow. I remember a similar situation in 2012 summer in June the MCS that did so much damage in DC etc. Southern Jersey too I think.

[jmanley32]

NWS is now saying they may have to use PDS wording if things pan out. Thats bad. It certainly seems this is like 100% prime atmospheric conditions for some really bad storms, however yes it is the NAM but havent we said in the winter that it gets fairly good in the one to two day frame? I assume mugs thats why you said 12z will be interesting.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE
PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE
FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES
NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF
AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTEN

[amugs]

Jman - no sarcasm and no hyping just going by the information put out by teh experts - now we will see what is what in teh next 24 hours if conditions are ripe for rotation - this would be nuts - and algae you gave us the K.O.D. if this happens - hahaha!

[algae888]

mugs maybe I am the K.O.D.lol I think we will have some normal strong t/storms like we do every summer but tornadoes? I don't think so. I lived in nyc my whole life 52+ years and can count the tornadoes we have had in nyc n/e nj and li on one hand. even the ones we have had last like 30 seconds. plus even when conditions are perfect they just do not happen here. would be very surprised in one formed in the areas I mentioned. have a better chance of hitting the lottery!lol
there! now lets see if im really the KOD.lololol btw im playing the lottery today!!  

[amugs]

Algae,

I hear you brother - the best chance of tormatic activity is going to be Md and SE PA for our area if you will - W Va is way off the charts from here. We rarely see these bad boys and the severe storms are more the norm for us - not hyping anything but just putting down the info the experts are reporting - keep an eye out the next 24-36 hours to see.

Mugs

[jmanley32]

Hey mugs and algae, I can recall two tornadoes in the area in the past 8 year I have lived in westchester.  The one in Brooklyn and the one in Riverdale, Bronx.  I have pics from that one and although not devastating did some serious damage.  mugs, yeah this could be nuts and as NWS said enhanced wording ie. PDS, and algae certainly did blow the horn on a quiet summer lol BUT I am not super superstitious so algae wont hold ya responsible whatever happens, its up to mother nature IMO.  Except I am assuming the KOD for this is the opposite of winter in being that the KOD means we will get hit when we don't want to versus snow we want to happen and the KOD is hyping.  Funny how that works.  Will be keeping watch and even so algae keep a eye to the sky and SPC because of the potential we want to be prepared.

I'd like to hear from Frank on this he last said some showers and nothing severe. I assume that may have changed, where are ya Frank!? : )

[Quietace]

mugs maybe I am the K.O.D.lol I think we will have some normal strong t/storms like we do every summer but tornadoes? I don't think so. I lived in nyc my whole life 52+ years and can count the tornadoes we have had in nyc n/e nj and li on one hand. even the ones we have had last like 30 seconds. plus even when conditions are perfect they just do not happen here. would be very surprised in one formed in the areas I mentioned. have a better chance of hitting the lottery!lol
there! now lets see if im really the KOD.lololol btw im playing the lottery today!!  

Agree with you about the tornados. But I think the severe weather threat is real. Hail, wind, etc.

[Dunnzoo]

Well, I will be on the front lines Sunday...heading to the NWS Open House in Upton/Brookhaven....should be hopping if they are watching severe potential! Anyone else going? Alex ( Mets) is going too....

[Quietace]

NAM has 2 events tomorrow. Sunday Morning and Sunday evening. Helicity and PW is higher in the morning event.

[algae888]

well it looks like the 12 Z gfs and Nam have backed off of the heavy rain and looks to be forming the low north and west of us instead of over Central New Jersey As the nam was showing last night. as a result the severe threat looks less likely also. we shall see

[jmanley32]

Sheesh ya and cape is higher too, 2000-3000 j/kg seems to have been consistent on that. But yeah the models showing the low to our north but GEM takes it right over the area, so still discrepancy which the NWS notates. Ace what is helicity, so are you saying we make wake to more severe weather tomorrow than go to bed with possibly? Thats unusual. The cape on this map is very unstable at that time frame in the AM.

[Quietace]

Sheesh ya and cape is higher too, 2000-3000 j/kg seems to have been consistent on that.  But yeah the models showing the low to our north but GEM takes it right over the area, so still discrepancy which the NWS notates. Ace what is helicity, so are you saying we make wake to more severe weather tomorrow than go to bed with possibly?  Thats unusual.  The cape on this map is very unstable at that time frame in the AM.

Description of helicity
http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/69
But yes, if we get AM storms it could stabilize the atmosphere enough the Pm storms would be weak.

[Frank_Wx]

I don't know, I'm really not impressed for severe weather in our area. Thunderstorms, yes, but severe weather probably no or very isolated. The main vort, or area of low pressure, is passing to our northwest late Sunday night or early Monday morning. I think tomorrow afternoon into the night is when we could see some decent storms. Greatest concern for severe weather is around the Ohio Valley

[jmanley32]

Latest from SPC discussion:

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FOR WASHINGTON DC AND NEW
YORK CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONGER MULTICELLS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELL THAT
CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

[algae888]

From upton for sunday afternoon. THE REGION COULD END UP BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORABLE REGIONS. meaning more favorable conditions will be to Our North and to our south. There's still a lot of uncertainty but there probably be a few strong to severe storms but nothing widespread. tornadoes seem very unlikely don't hold your breath for that. I guess it'll come down to being in the wrong place at the wrong time or for you J man being in the right place at the right time.lol

[amugs]

HRRR says a good line of storms for tomorrow evening - if we get storms in the morning than the atmosphere will most likely not produce these and destabilize the severe threat like our boy wonder Ace and illustrious leader Frank have pointed out.

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