Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[SoulSingMG]

Yup. Another interesting week of model hunting. The buzz has already started on social media about 'GFS showing strong coastal low over NYC that if track deviated east, would be epic.'

[rb924119]

Frank, I've been watching the Canadian snow cover as well. I'd like to see a little less in Alaska/western Canada to help really start building the positive temperature anomalies there forcing early-season ridging. I'm waiting for the Rutgers Snow Lab to finish processing the monthly data for October for comparison of this year to last. If it matches up fairly well, I think we'd better watch out. Certainly seems like the global models are beginning to pick up on the eastern Canadian snow cover with what looks like persistent troughing over the area setting up for next week. Wanna be sure of the snow anomalies first before getting excited for the rest of the season though lmao

[sroc4]

A mecs snowstorm or mecs unsure of precip type? So when around 15 to 20th timeframe? I know it's just signals but wanted to know what timeframe ur seeing these signals. U go for the god scott!

Have no idea of Precip types or if a MECS even develops. But the signal for one is percolating. I like that word

[mako460]

PERCOLATING, i like it!

[rb924119]

I've been looking a little deeper at the progged pattern for next week and beyond, and we are going to be able to thank the typhoon currently off the coast of Japan. It's actually going to pump the central Pacific ridge up so much that the pattern over the Pacific wavebreaks and cuts that ridge off above Alaska. It eventually meanders over the North Pole and helps to reverse the height gradient (-AO). It also helps to create a stationary Gulf of Alaska trough which then induces a ridge over western North America (+PNA). The combination allows negative 500 hPa anomalies to flood the eastern half of the U.S. It is unclear at this time whether or not the expected Phase 1 MJO will help or hurt this pattern at this time, seeing as though tropical cyclone development could drastically alter our sensible weather. Just my two cents....

[jmanley32]

Interesting on all the worldly effects that cause our weather. I will def be watching around the 10th, I just hope the 8th is clear, it is my daughters Jewish naming ceremony and people are coming in from Boston etc.

[Frank_Wx]

I've been looking a little deeper at the progged pattern for next week and beyond, and we are going to be able to thank the typhoon currently off the coast of Japan. It's actually going to pump the central Pacific ridge up so much that the pattern over the Pacific wavebreaks and cuts that ridge off above Alaska. It eventually meanders over the North Pole and helps to reverse the height gradient (-AO). It also helps to create a stationary Gulf of Alaska trough which then induces a ridge over western North America (+PNA). The combination allows negative 500 hPa anomalies to flood the eastern half of the U.S. It is unclear at this time whether or not the expected Phase 1 MJO will help or hurt this pattern at this time, seeing as though tropical cyclone development could drastically alter our sensible weather. Just my two cents....

Awesome analysis and I agree. One thing I would like to see happening this season is some high latitude blocking at the NAO region. That would really help jump start the winter season.

[jmanley32]

soulsing where have you seen this social media talk? Man 192hrs plus out, and media already, some on! Lets not be getting these KOD this year.

[rb924119]

Frank if we get that that would be an awesome setup.....time will tell whether or not that sets up though. Patience is a virtue lmao

[jmanley32]

Euro certain likes idea of two big storms in the 10 day, def going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds. Euro more amped than GFS which def says something.

[sroc4]

I would just like to point out the SST in the pacific.  The warm pool is getting warmer again in the GOA area.  GREAT news for our -EPO +PNA signals for winter.  First image is the actual SST temp anomalies.  The second image is the last 7day change.  Clearly a warming trend is occurring again.  If you remember the first half of Oct we actually were having cooling occurring in the NE Pac and the warm pool in the GOA was shrinking.  If you recall we had super typhoon after super typhoon re-curve from late summer into early Oct. and enhance a trough into the GOA which caused upwelling of the cooler deeper water.  Frank pointed out we needed to see what happens up there once the typhoon season subsided.  Well guess what? No more typhoons and the warming trend is back, at least for the past 7 days) to enhance our Pac teleconnections.  

[img][/img]

[amugs]

It's coming folks and the mode ls are going t brought the transfer of the change. Cmc also shows a storm in the 7-8 day time fame and h5 maps.

We will be doing A LOT of tracking these next few months IMHO.

Balls to the wall!

[Frank_Wx]

May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

[amugs]

May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

The times are a changing in more ways than one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As I said in the other thread and posts - I like the long range and IT"S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[sroc4]

May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

Looking more like an all out orgy..lol

[jmanley32]

So guys what does this mean for us lots of storms and snow?

[sroc4]

Lots of storm potential Jman. The deeper into the season we get the higher the snow chances will get. Its all potential my man.

[skinsfan1177]

Just goes to show how fast the weather can change.

[jmanley32]

Sure does, ok NEXT whats next on the out look? LOL, looks like a lot of rain for Thursday.

[jmanley32]

18z GFS has another very windy day next Sat and rain w/ strong winds on Thursday, looking at winds possibly stronger than todays and Ryan Maue made mention of it today on twitter. Going to be a wild next 4 month IMO.

[jmanley32]

Holy crap! Amnd this is the Euro 8 days out, not a good thing since Euro can often underestimate storms (well maybe not so this year but this is a scary looking storm, wids would be much higher than today and lots precip.

[jmanley32]

Jeeze, hurricane force over LI CT and MA, gives us 50-60mph gusts (well some of you live closer to that eastenr part of LI). Long ways off but this comes west yikes on the wind, drops 3-4 inches or rain too. Will def have to watch this one, interesting it seems to come from down around FL.

[Sunflowers138]

That EURI map you posted is for next weekend? Or Thursday?

[jmanley32]

That is around the 10th or 11th, should not be taken to seriously yet however sroc did elude to a big storm around the middle of the month.  We will see where models trend through this week.

[Sunflowers138]

I'll be following along!

Thanks for the reply!

[amugs]

Here is my take on the new but most exciting pattern change. It is becoming pretty obvious that initial warm forecasts made for November are definitely going to be wrong. Yes, the month will start out about to slightly above average, but the Aleutian Low is going to retrograde to the west quicker than initially thought. This as well as other factors may try to lead to some high-latitude blocking as well. Euo showing low swinging off the ne coast and then stalling over Greenland giving us a block.

Instead of a warm November 1-15 and average to maybe slightly below November 16-30 like originally thought, it may be something like a slightly above to  average November 1-7, but pretty cold for much of the month after that. 



I think we see our fair share of coastal s and a good shot at snow in this pattern from mid month to the end accumulating maybe but a bk end squall is more likely - I think we start to see the stj come into play as well. Just one man's thoughts on this exciting pattern change.
  

I the using his iPad auto or react posting maps etc do not like it. Beggars can't be choosers right?

[jmanley32]

mugs that sub 980 LP on Euro is no joke, if that were to happen that would def me a MECS if not more. Interested to see if its continued on future models or if its that pattern change thats making models have a hard time.

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