Official Long Range Thread 4.0
+29
Snow88
carvin1079
Artechmetals
Vinnydula
Isotherm
Radz
Quietace
CPcantmeasuresnow
1190ftalt
HectorO
devsman
aiannone
NjWeatherGuy
Analog96
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
dsix85
Sunflowers138
skinsfan1177
amugs
mako460
rb924119
SoulSingMG
Dunnzoo
sroc4
algae888
jmanley32
docstox12
Frank_Wx
33 posters
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Did someone say beer?
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
gfs and its ensembles take dec 21st low to lakes and redevelops off li. euro and cmc are colder. have low brush us passing just south and east. gfs is alone again.
gfs hr 192
euro hr 192
cmc hr 192.
gfs hr 192
euro hr 192
cmc hr 192.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
I just took a look at the 6z GFS run myself. It showed 3 potential coastals, including a doozy on xmas eve. Track and precip type not important right now… very stormy run indeed. Probably a precursor of the impending pattern change. Catch up on your sleep now everyone, good times ahead!algae888 wrote:6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
algae888 wrote:6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...
Nice look here and lots of time to get even better, or not at all. This active pattern is great it seems like every 7-10 days there's something decent to track.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Watched my man Lee last night on late night news and he said" the pattern looks to be changing by late week and we could have our next significant storm next weekend!! I have been watching him since he has been in my along with Bill and I have only heard either one say this A handful of times Blizzard of 96, 2003, 09-10 storms 2013 Nemo. Hey let's not worry about how much but that as Nutley and Al have pointed out we have storms to track and climo is starting to work with us not against us unlike Nov.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Its all great news to hear the pattern looks to be changing next week also looks like all signals to be where we want and also maybe a -nao into january
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Blog tomorrow
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Euro is coming in about as money as ALL of us could hope for. Im only out to hr 192 but I am drooling. Long way to go but humina humina humina
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Out to 204 Scott and holy fn sht it is a MECS!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
at work so cant elaborate. sorry
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Looking at from 186 to 216 snow approx
Miller a baby!
Takes the exact same track inside the bm but a good 50/50 low to help lock in some cold air and slow it up just enough!!
Miller a baby!
Takes the exact same track inside the bm but a good 50/50 low to help lock in some cold air and slow it up just enough!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
_________________
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
I hate this fn iPad can't do maps apple sucks!!
The storm the pulls up towards Nokia scotia and pulls down some cold air the 32* line is all the Amy's to the coast of sc and into middle la
Talk about a change.
Auto spell check bite me!!
Snow from 190 to 212estimation
The storm the pulls up towards Nokia scotia and pulls down some cold air the 32* line is all the Amy's to the coast of sc and into middle la
Talk about a change.
Auto spell check bite me!!
Snow from 190 to 212estimation
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Thanks paisan!! For posting looks good!
Dec 17 storm sets us up as it looks to become the 50/50 low right? Or am I reading it wrong?
Dec 17 storm sets us up as it looks to become the 50/50 low right? Or am I reading it wrong?
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
amugs wrote:I hate this fn iPad can't do maps apple sucks!!
The storm the pulls up towards Nokia scotia and pulls down some cold air the 32* line is all the Amy's to the coast of sc and into middle la
Talk about a change.
Auto spell check bite me!!
Snow from 190 to 212estimation
Just bought a Surface 2...so maybe finally I'll be able to post some images too! Just get me the cold air and the rest will get here. We have been in such a wet pattern, bound to be white soon!
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
amugs wrote:Out to 204 Scott and holy fn sht it is a MECS!!
I wish it wasnt 8 days away. I want to freeze this run and re run it again at 00z on the 20th
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Been working hard on my finals and just had a nice break and saw the euro for 8/9 day : ) The snow map is purty (hoping the heaviest shifts more into my area though (tons of time for changes), but won't bother in posting it unless someone really cares to see a snow map that is 8+ days away. And mugs what the heck are u typing lol, better try turn that auto correct off, pasians, amy lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
DT said in a video today that the position of the 12/17 low eastern New England will determine whether or not we have a 50/50 low for the 12/21 event.
Also, I notice that this thread has over 1000 posts. Time for a 5.0 Long Range Thread?
Also, I notice that this thread has over 1000 posts. Time for a 5.0 Long Range Thread?
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Dang 1000 posts and its not even halfway through Dec lol. And to think the 21st even is really only 10-15 Euro (start the count down, its fairly consistent), runs away from a time frame where we will know a lot more. Nor is it even possibly our biggest storm with two more on its heels possibly giggity! Screw the models not showing squat, all hail Euro : ) Sroc, humina lol, sounds like ur talking about a hot babe
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Back on my laptop - and I hear you and Mike on the 50/50 low - Scott wish it was 00Z runs and snowstorm tomorrow - the next few days if this has the same solution will be interesting but it is in LR land so we patiently await.
Zoo so true the power keg is ready top be tapped IMO and I am sitting here drinking my homemade baileys and eating home made canolli filing (secret ingredient - amaretto yeah baby!!) by the chip full.
Zoo so true the power keg is ready top be tapped IMO and I am sitting here drinking my homemade baileys and eating home made canolli filing (secret ingredient - amaretto yeah baby!!) by the chip full.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
What is it with accuwx long range and ice storms, do they just like to try and freak people out showing multiple days over their crazy 45 day forecast with 0.25+ ice threats with 40-50mph winds? As I recall when I really started watching winter more last year none of those ever verified even inland, maybe one but not major.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
This maybe just enough for us and teh 505/50 low set up will helkp bring or is a step to the - NAO.
Christmas - oh bring it
Christmas - oh bring it
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
mugs I expect some homemade canolis at the get together, my all time fav italian dessert! Some are really badly done but I am sure yours are great, I don;t need the alcohol though lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Math23x7 wrote:DT said in a video today that the position of the 12/17 low eastern New England will determine whether or not we have a 50/50 low for the 12/21 event.
Also, I notice that this thread has over 1000 posts. Time for a 5.0 Long Range Thread?
I'll start it tomorrow with my blog
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
CONUS goes into the ice box right after xmas on global models - cmc, gfs and euro!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
mugs still think the 21/22nd a good shot at snow and the xmas, or are u now thinking more after like u just stated. Or are you just saying thats when prolonged cold will kick in? GFS has both storms warm (but its your evil 18z lol)
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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