Official Long Range Thread 4.0
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Snow88
carvin1079
Artechmetals
Vinnydula
Isotherm
Radz
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CPcantmeasuresnow
1190ftalt
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amugs
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33 posters
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP
Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus
LOL...I thought the same thing. I am in between appts and I just made my employees look at it. They rolled their eyes at me.
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
DT is really confident on a pattern change just right near Christmas. He said the trend is his friend. He is calling for a -NAO in January.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP
Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus
LOL...I thought the same thing. I am in between appts and I just made my employees look at it. They rolled their eyes at me.
Hahaha
Snow88 wrote:DT is really confident on a pattern change just right near Christmas. He said the trend is his friend. He is calling for a -NAO in January.
Tony, my man, I've been saying this since Thanksgiving. It's also in my winter outlook. Hence, while everyone (not really this forum) was freaking out about the long range for the 1st half of December, I was just sitting back and enjoying the entertainment
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
…That's the reason why I was so aggressive in my snowfall prediction this upcoming season. I feel once the tellies line up, the pattern will be a virtual powder keg of potential.Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP
Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Nutley me too, I put mine higher than my total last year but maybe at this point not high enough, we shall see. It may be one snowstorm after another come Christmas week though march : ) We can hope anyways, break my back shoveling yeah but its so fun to watch and track. Bring it all in January lol, school starts up again February lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Pattern change, does not necessarily mean snowstorm though right> Accuwx (inaccuwx, lol) has showers on x-mas for my area and pretty warm temps, of course their 5 day changes 20x a day.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
I am trying to fully understand this map, if anyone can take the time to draw on it what the -ao area is, the -nao area is and the -epo area is it would be greatly appreciated, I have the map printed to I can keep it because I really want to understand this stuff so I know what the heck u all are talking about. All I know is what they stand for and did some research but I still do not fully grasp it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
jmanley32 wrote:I am trying to fully understand this map, if anyone can take the time to draw on it what the -ao area is, the -nao area is and the -epo area is it would be greatly appreciated, I have the map printed to I can keep it because I really want to understand this stuff so I know what the heck u all are talking about. All I know is what they stand for and did some research but I still do not fully grasp it.
Sorry Jman I dont have time to write on the image but here is a great website
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Also this
http://northernhemisphere-teleconnections.blogspot.com/2011/04/importance-of-epo-wpo-pna-signals-in.html
http://northernhemisphere-teleconnections.blogspot.com/2011/04/importance-of-epo-wpo-pna-signals-in.html
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Ok sroc this works, great site.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Dunnzoo wrote:amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....
Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
12z Euro Ensemble mean for the 20-21 storm
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Marginal at best, looks accordin to models that its too warm for snow even inland. Of course temps change quickly and its way to early to make a call on that, that map looks okay possibly.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Jman I really hope the one around Christmas comes through that sounds to be the time of the pattern changejmanley32 wrote:Marginal at best, looks accordin to models that its too warm for snow even inland. Of course temps change quickly and its way to early to make a call on that, that map looks okay possibly.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
amugs wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....
Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land!
Mugs, I mean your highness. This is why even though I often joke of your overthrow I'll always have your back.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Holy 18z gfs! yes I know 360 but daum. Not trusting anything that far out but still that would be a mecs if not a hecs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
CP - thanks my man - I know I can trust you - hope you do not put anything in my back as I am turned though?!
JMAN - that is a beast if it were to happen and the delay of a day or two will allow the -nao to get more time to build and the 50/50 low to help as well.
A lot of storms coming up and the transition is about to happen sooner than we think.
JMAN - that is a beast if it were to happen and the delay of a day or two will allow the -nao to get more time to build and the 50/50 low to help as well.
A lot of storms coming up and the transition is about to happen sooner than we think.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Dunnzoo wrote:amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....
I am so ready for dat!!!!!!!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:amugs wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................
Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla
That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.
Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!
Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....
Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land!
Mugs, I mean your highness. This is why even though I often joke of your overthrow I'll always have your back.
Until the King busts out on snow production.Then it's exile to Sector 11 with the Zookeeper!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
mugs I checked the only place I know that shows snow totals for the 384 hr run and that storm must be really fast because it only drops 4-10 inches, are we going to be lacking a block still? I know its way off but I am wondering because it showed all snow and it accumulated so little (the site is instantweathermaps.com, I know its not all that accurate but with that run I was expecting some nuts total). But focusing on things we can at this time like the pattern if that map holds that was posted earlier we are really good, one question, like i stated above does it also have blocking, or will things still be really progressive?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
I have a question are we going to get a west based nao?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Monster storm keeps on showing up near the 26-27
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
jmanley32 wrote:mugs I checked the only place I know that shows snow totals for the 384 hr run and that storm must be really fast because it only drops 4-10 inches, are we going to be lacking a block still? I know its way off but I am wondering because it showed all snow and it accumulated so little (the site is instantweathermaps.com, I know its not all that accurate but with that run I was expecting some nuts total). But focusing on things we can at this time like the pattern if that map holds that was posted earlier we are really good, one question, like i stated above does it also have blocking, or will things still be really progressive?
Jman all you need to know is a couple of those instant snow maps showed anywhere from 12-20 inches in Orange County 2-3 days before the last storm. I ended up with freezing rain then rain then an inch of snow. It's all for fun my man those snow maps are practically meaningless but still fun to look at as long as you don't take them serious.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
Did someone say beer?
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0
gfs and its ensembles take dec 21st low to lakes and redevelops off li. euro and cmc are colder. have low brush us passing just south and east. gfs is alone again.
gfs hr 192
euro hr 192
cmc hr 192.
gfs hr 192
euro hr 192
cmc hr 192.
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