Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map

I hope everyone is having an enjoyable weekend so far. The storm threat Sunday night into Monday is looking colder and colder by each passing model run. 925mb temps are not getting nearly as warm as models were showing yesterday. With a secondary low pressure system looking eager to take shape off our coast, this will help pull in some cold air and prevent mid-level warming. Due to this trend, I have decided to bring the heaviest axis of snow further south and put NYC and north shore of LI in the 3-6" zone. There still exists the possibility of an even further south trend which would extend the red zone into NYC Metro as well. We'll see if this happens.

**CHAT TOMORROW MORNING FROM 10am-12pm, DON'T FORGET!!**

Frank_Wx wrote:I hope everyone is having an enjoyable weekend so far. The storm threat Sunday night into Monday is looking colder and colder by each passing model run. 925mb temps are not getting nearly as warm as models were showing yesterday. With a secondary low pressure system looking eager to take shape off our coast, this will help pull in some cold air and prevent mid-level warming. Due to this trend, I have decided to bring the heaviest axis of snow further south and put NYC and north shore of LI in the 3-6" zone. There still exists the possibility of an even further south trend which would extend the red zone into NYC Metro as well. We'll see if this happens.

**CHAT TOMORROW MORNING FROM 11am-12pm, DON'T FORGET!!**

Great Map Frank! Expect advisories and warnings to be issued with the aftn update

NICE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SREFS are no won board with RGEM, CMC, EURO and GFS - oh did I miss teh NOGAPS, CRAS and DGEX???

I'm still c-2 inches but maybe if trends continue I get closer to the 2-4.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm still c-2 inches but maybe if trends continue I get closer to the 2-4.

Yes, your area is a little tricky right now. The trend is in your favor right now, so stay tuned.

See IMO, i'm not worried about the SFC. we have a good snowpack, water is freezing cold and frozen along the shore, it's the mid levels. If they stay cold, then we are all good. Last storm we changed over to ZR because of mid level warming but but sfc never got above 32*. I think the mid levels should stay colder with this storm due to a weaker primary and a secondary developing off shore and if sfc temps behave the same as last storm, then i see no reason not be be all snow.

The game changer for this storm has been the secondary low pressure system off our coast. Although it's weak, it takes away energy from the primary low to our north and mid/lower levels are having a hard time warming up.

frank great analysis and map as usual. the only thing I disagree with is that I would cut the red area at around the Rockland County border I think areas west of there are only going to see 3 to 6 inches

So the timing is later than I thought. I thought it was coming in EARLY afternoon

Nice map, Frank.

And we're up

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NEW YORK
CITY...LONG ISLAND...MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH
UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...1/4 TO 1/2 MILES AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...LONG
ISLAND...MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED SURFACES...COATED WITH ICE IN
AREAS...WILL MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

Love the map.  Hope i no changes (except for more snow for all of us).

I don't see where the NWS is getting there info from. All the models have been trending colder, yet they are expecting a changeover during the event. I just don't get it.

NAM has 850s and SFC temps below freezing pretty much from Middlesex/Mercer on north, never budges, trends look good, good amount of qpf.

A wwa? 2 to 6 inches that's quite a spread I think this will b a wsw areason east of ny have wsw. Do u guys think it will be upgraded?

HOLY 18z NAM!!!

Total liquid precipitation:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif

jmanley32 wrote:A wwa? 2 to 6 inches that's quite a spread I think this will b a wsw areason east of ny have wsw. Do u guys think it will be upgraded?

My only guess is maybe they want to see the 00z suite tonight before pulling the trigger. If the models hold serve or trend even colder, I believe they will upgrade to warnings by morning.

Nice solid 5 to 8! Def go see this become wsw I dunno where nws getting their info lol

Nice map Frank. I see a solid 4 to 8" for most forum members if these trends hold till late tonight. Jman I used to be like you and wonder/get upset at NWS asvisories. They're just words. It means nothing. Just be happy with Frank's forecasts and the trends going in our way right now.

By the way Frank I heard they're expecting wind gusts of 55+ for areas just NW of NYC (Jman's neighborhood)

New Upton Map

they made some map changes finally

jmanley32 wrote:Nice solid 5 to 8! Def go see this become wsw I dunno where nws getting their info lol

I think they keep NYC in a advisory

I so want my snowpack to be reinforced with nice 4-5" of clean white gold even though I know its March

if I max out at 8 that's my biggest of the year. I would take that in a second!!!

If I got 8" from this it would almost be tied with my biggest storm of the winter where I got 8.5".