Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[algae888]

para gfs...

[algae888]

if this verifies we can say goodbye to the warmth for second half of march...

[algae888]

hello polar vortex...


why could you visit us in winter?

[sroc4]

scott euro looks interesting palm sunday snow?...

Hosanna! hosanna!  Of course still low probabilities, but I still like the time frame of 20th-25th if anything is to happen

[Snow88]

[sroc4]

Anthony there is no denying the possibility of one last stand between the 20th-25th from old man winter regardless of what the warm weenies want to say. GEFs. and EPS show the possibility with a mean trough approaching the east with a -EPO and a transitioning -NAO. "Weather" its simply a transient cold shot( or cool shot) or if the ingredients are there for a system to come together at the right time to produce winter precip is yet to be determined. Probabilities are low for snow, but they are not zero even at the coast. The dawn of the warm weenie is upon us, but nothing would please me more than to see all the warm weenies bitch and moan if it were to come to fruition one last time. We track.

[Frank_Wx]

Hey everyone. I'm currently in the airport waiting for my flight back to Jersey. I struck out big time with the weather. 40s and 50s all week but with the overcast and rain it felt colder. Horrible weather for me, but there was lots to do down there. My friends joked the mild southern air got on a plane to the northeast and the cold air went with me to the south. I wasn't amused. 

Anyway, now that I'll be back it looks like I'm bringing the cooler weather back with me. I must be a magnet for the cold or something. Temps this weekend and early next week will still be fairly mild for March - upper 50s to 60s - but once we get to the end of next week we're looking at below normal temps.

The NAO is poised to go negative and the PNA is inclined to go positive between the 19th-25th. This should lead to below normal weather. I'm not ruling out a winter storm either. Still too far out to know for sure. 








The GEFS show a potent trough over the east. You can see some mornings temps are only in the 20s. Enjoy the mild stretch while it lasts.

[billg315]

This doesn't surprise me. The warmth this week has been extremely abnormal, but it is also very early so plenty of time for another outbreak of below normal temperatures before spring weather fully sets in. It would actually be funny if we did get another snowstorm -- or snow event at least -- in late March after everyone thought we had skipped Spring and went straight to summer this week.

[Math23x7]

This doesn't surprise me. The warmth this week has been extremely abnormal, but it is also very early so plenty of time for another outbreak of below normal temperatures before spring weather fully sets in. It would actually be funny if we did get another snowstorm -- or snow event at least -- in late March after everyone thought we had skipped Spring and went straight to summer this week.

Bill, there is precedence for that.  

The winter of 1991-92 was an El Nino winter (albeit a weaker one than the one we have now).  December throughFebruary was mild and only 3.2" fell prior to March.  There was then a stretch of very mild weather (abeit not as warm as now; temperatures were in the 60s) March 9 and 10th and it was generally mild in March through the 12th.  Then it turned colder and two snowstorms occurred within a few days.  6.2" of snow fell on March 19th and 3.2" fell on March 22nd, which sums up to 9.4" after the mild stretch.  Since I was only 20 months old, I would not remember it

Also, the second half of March 2003 was very mild with temperatures frequently getting up into the mid to upper 60s.  Then on April 7th, 4" of snow fell in NYC and more than that fell in surrounding areas.  

There's another one I know of (granted it was a La Nina winter).  March 2000 was the 8th warmest March on record.  Then on April 9th, we got 1-3" of snow here.  I remember that it seemed incomprehensible to me that it could snow and stick that late in the season (I was nine years old).  Since I did not get to play in the snow January 25th, 2000 due to being sick, I took full advantage and played in the snow then even if it was just a little.  Of course, by the next day, the snow was all gone.

I just hope that Easter weekend (26th-27th) turns out nice.  Of course, now that I mention it, it probably wont be...

[Frank_Wx]

Between the 20th and 25th there may be a winter storm threat. We'll check back on this next week. I'll include it in the next Mo Mo.

[sroc4]

What happened to Tom's (Isotherm's) post???

[Bkdude]

What happened to Tom's (Isotherm's) post???

It was taken down for being too negative. He said its not going to snow in july this year..

Just kidding

[Snow88]

[frank 638]

i hope so i just want one more snow event i rember back in the 90s we would get snow in march

[rb924119]

GFS going slightly STOOPID for this (possible) event:

today's 12z OP:

[algae888]

GFS going slightly STOOPID for this (possible) event:

today's 12z OP:

add the cmc to the mix...

[Bkdude]

i hope so i just want one more snow event i rember back in the 90s we would get snow in march

Don't have to go back that far

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

i hope so i just want one more snow event i rember back in the 90s we would get snow in march

I'm not sure why you reference the 1990's for March snow, last year NYC had over 18 inches of snow in March on several different days.

March isn't suppose to be like this March has been, this is very abnormal.

[frank 638]

I know over the years we had good snow storms in March  it just feels like back in the 90s when I was growing up it was mor colder with more snow events just like last march it was cold and snowy I just wish this march we would have more snow storms thanks to el nino

[algae888]

euro...

[algae888]

very close gfs and cmc..


models are honing in on a track just inland to just off the coast. we need a track a little further east and lp bombing out at right time. cold enough air just to our north. this threat looks better for inland areas atm. it's not unprecedented to get a big snowstorm late in the season during weakening el-nino winters. would be great to get one more acc. snowfall.

[algae888]

ukie looks furthest east. only goes out to 144hrs. looks like this would ride right up the coast...

[algae888]

all the models have a nice 50/50 lp however hp looks to be sliding to far east. euro has best hp placement so far.

[algae888]

big spread on gefs...

[algae888]

cmc ens...

[algae888]

if track is right temps will be cold enough for snow even down to coast...

[algae888]

nice ridge axis in west and trough in east.

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