HomeLong Range Thread 11.0
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:25 pm
hearing euro is a foot of snow for nyc
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:25 pm
CT and MA get absolutely creamed, but we get hammered pretty good too, may be some precip issues with it that close on cape etc.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:27 pm
algae888 wrote:hearing euro is a foot of snow for nyc
ye are correct wow what a change.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by sroc4 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:28 pm
jmanley32 wrote:holy s***!! giggity
Just like the Jan23rd storm the euro is trying to pop two low centers here. One with the convection off shore, and one with the main area of convewction. Give me one more set of runs like this and Im all in.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:30 pm
Wow look at how many are effected, NESIS storm level? I wonder if this has potential to b even stronger being the euro sometimes underplays intensity, but hey damn for march this would be crazy.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:31 pm
scott yes gfs is doing same thing. it like first area of lp goes east and as piece of pv drops in it develops another low
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:31 pm
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:holy s***!! giggity
Just like the Jan23rd storm the euro is trying to pop two low centers here. One with the convection off shore, and one with the main area of convewction. Give me one more set of runs like this and Im all in.
LOL, really u will be sold 3-4 days out? That means something big to me.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:37 pm
I also noted the time, its a very short duration on euro, like 12 hrs or so so that's some damn heavy snow, mon morning commute b real ugly.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by sroc4 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:40 pm
algae888 wrote:scott yes gfs is doing same thing. it like first area of lp goes east and as piece of pv drops in it develops another low
At 500mb you can see there is one piece of energy that will escape OTS. On the surface there is a LP that is trying to form associated with the convection associated with tha vort. But you can see the main energy associated with the trough should cause the real center of LP to form much closer to the coast. Yes Jman with the type of consistency and changes I saw today within EVERY single model, I am 00z set of runs from getting real excited. I have been burned before, and one set of runs does not lock me in, but...
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:48 pm
wow what a euro run - holy crap went back to teh idea it showed over the weekend.
Last edited by amugs on Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:39 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:53 pm
also if time frame is right on euro most of precip falls between 4pm and 4am so we do not have to worry about sun angle
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by sroc4 Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:59 pm
algae888 wrote:also if time frame is right on euro most of precip falls between 4pm and 4am so we do not have to worry about sun angle
If the precip rates are high enough sun angle wont matter anyway. Last March as an example
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:00 pm
cmc ind esm..a lot of coastal huggers
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by algae888 Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:03 pm
agree but with such mild days before ground will be warm a we will lose some acc to melting during peak daylight. most models have late afternoon thru nighttime hours atm. I prefer night snow to day time at this time of year esp. without any recent cold snaps.sroc4 wrote:algae888 wrote:also if time frame is right on euro most of precip falls between 4pm and 4am so we do not have to worry about sun angle
If the precip rates are high enough sun angle wont matter anyway. Last March as an example
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by sroc4 Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:17 pm
Frontal boundary passes on Friday it shoould get cold sat night into Sunday.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:36 pm
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE FOR SURE - SNOW RATIOS WILL BE 10-1 AND SOME MAY EVEN BE 12-1 BUT LETS NOT GO THERE YET.
JB: euro still not far enough west-best snow from crest of Appalachians to I-95 - THINKS THE PHASE IS STRONGER AND IT GETS/CORRECTED FURTHER WEST - NOT CUTTER BUT MORE INSIDE THE BM
850'S CHECK CHECK AND CHECCKKKKKK
BL IS FINE AS SCOTT POSTED
JB: euro still not far enough west-best snow from crest of Appalachians to I-95 - THINKS THE PHASE IS STRONGER AND IT GETS/CORRECTED FURTHER WEST - NOT CUTTER BUT MORE INSIDE THE BM
850'S CHECK CHECK AND CHECCKKKKKK
BL IS FINE AS SCOTT POSTED
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:40 pm
RAYNO : FULL STEAM AHEAD MR SQUIDWARD
WOOT WOOOT
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/last-gasp-of-winter-storm-to-t
WOOT WOOOT
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/last-gasp-of-winter-storm-to-t
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:52 pm
Do we want it further west? Will that bring precip issues to the coast? Or will it just push that 12-18 area on Euro more into the area?
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:09 pm
EPS!!!!!!!!!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by amugs Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:10 pm
.75" into NYC!!!
Tucked LP inside benchmark !!
Tucked LP inside benchmark !!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:11 pm
delete
Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:14 pm
well not really, but a good cluster, and some of the individual runs put NYC with 12+! And after seeing Bernies video I see we will have no issues with tempos as the cold is down into DC area wow.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0
by jmanley32 Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:18 pm
ready for control, been 3 straight runs now that shown at least 6+.
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