2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Math23x7 wrote:Here is hr 240 of the 12Z EURO with the 988 mb low just inside the 40-70 BM we use during the snow season.  Speaking of the snow season, look at northern Maine with the 0C 850 mb temperatures.  The season is right around the corner!

I like where your head is at Mikey!!

100mph wind gusts just off shore jersy TS force everywhere else to low level hurricane. i was expecting it to peeter out by time got thus far north. This has to be watched by a lot of people, could potentially (if euro is right, which it sure was with sandy) be devastating on different levels from FL to Gulf coast to NE, that would be epic.

okay last image I promise lol, just got my wxbell back and having some fun. Thats Alot of rain, and the last frame its not even done yet.

If this played out even close to a senario like the the majority of the eastern part of the US would have disaster areas all over either due to wind/flooding/etc. Wow what a run just crazy. I find it hard to believe the GFS is right being the Euro is now on run # 3 or 4 of showing quite a storm. This being the worst run IMO yet. Going to change in a 5-10 day period but to what degree we will see, and if the GFS is right I call upgrades needed for Euro.

Okay Katina track? 1947 Hcane track peeps, if so Euro is King and is the best tropical cy clone model out there due to its physics.
Cat 4 as itslams into the Gulf New Orleans and LA wil be bldemolished by this beast if they get hit.
Then it climbs inland to come back out off the VA coast and boom it feathers over the bathtub waters by us and becomes a trop storm again. Thus would be unbelievable if it were to occur imo.
Jesus this is a scary track for the gulf states.

Jman may let off the gas slightly but if it does as forecasted this is a monster strom.

amugs wrote:Jman may let off the gas slightly but if it does as forecasted this is a monster strom.

yeah it could be less intense but it was amazing to see a run that goes overland so long to still give us quite a storm. Not like the gulf but still.

I belong to a chat that's in Florida and so many.people confused as to what to believe. No development and hh found a mess and euro showing hurricane in 4 to 5 days. That's just not the usual. We had 8 days to prepare for sandy with decent expectations. I don't ever recall one this perplexing.

Wow just saw the 12z euro. If that were to happen it would impact millions and millions of people from Florida to the Gulf Coast right up the East Coast. With sea surface temperatures near record levels in the gulf and off the east coast this is definitely a concern

Apparently but haven't looked yet 38 or more of euro ensembles are on board. 25 around fl at hr 144.

For the sake and livelihood of the people of Louisiana lets hope the EURO is incorrect in its depiction of 99L. A major hurricane affecting that region - after gettings is worst flooding since Katrina - would mean complete devastation.

I am considering writing a blog but thinking about waiting 1 more day given the major differences in the models. The environment 99L has to work with is not very favorable. First, there is an area of dry air ahead of 99L it has to get through. The wave will survive and likely track north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas/Florida region. Since it will remain a weak wave until then, it's likely to get stuck under an upper level ridge that looks to station itself over the east coast this weekend (image 1). Southeast of this ridge is an upper level trough that will send wind shear (image 2) and dry air into the Florida/Bahamas region.

As with any tropical system this is very time sensitive. Perhaps it survives the second round of dry air and stalls under the ridge. That could give it time to rapidly intensify into a potent cyclone and track west into the Gulf. Maybe it gets stuck near one of the islands and avoids the wind shear. There are many avenues for 99L to take. We're still 3 days away until we truly know what will happen.


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jmanley32 wrote:Apparently but haven't looked yet 38 or more of euro ensembles are on board. 25 around fl at hr 144.

Just for you JMAN

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Apparently but haven't looked yet 38 or more of euro ensembles are on board. 25 around fl at hr 144.

Just for you JMAN

That's the 0Z 8/23 EURO ENS. Did you intend on posting the 12Z 8/23 EURO ENS?

Frank_Wx wrote:For the sake and livelihood of the people of Louisiana lets hope the EURO is incorrect in its depiction of 99L. A major hurricane affecting that region - after gettings is worst flooding since Katrina - would mean complete devastation.

I am considering writing a blog but thinking about waiting 1 more day given the major differences in the models. The environment 99L has to work with is not very favorable. First, there is an area of dry air ahead of 99L it has to get through. The wave will survive and likely track north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas/Florida region. Since it will remain a weak wave until then, it's likely to get stuck under an upper level ridge that looks to station itself over the east coast this weekend (image 1). Southeast of this ridge is an upper level trough that will send wind shear (image 2) and dry air into the Florida/Bahamas region.

As with any tropical system this is very time sensitive. Perhaps it survives the second round of dry air and stalls under the ridge. That could give it time to rapidly intensify into a potent cyclone and track west into the Gulf. Maybe it gets stuck near one of the islands and avoids the wind shear. There are many avenues for 99L to take. We're still 3 days away until we truly know what will happen.


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There are stark differences in how far S and W that upper level trough actually digs, how much shear and how much dry air are involved from Euro to GFS.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:For the sake and livelihood of the people of Louisiana lets hope the EURO is incorrect in its depiction of 99L. A major hurricane affecting that region - after gettings is worst flooding since Katrina - would mean complete devastation.

I am considering writing a blog but thinking about waiting 1 more day given the major differences in the models. The environment 99L has to work with is not very favorable. First, there is an area of dry air ahead of 99L it has to get through. The wave will survive and likely track north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas/Florida region. Since it will remain a weak wave until then, it's likely to get stuck under an upper level ridge that looks to station itself over the east coast this weekend (image 1). Southeast of this ridge is an upper level trough that will send wind shear (image 2) and dry air into the Florida/Bahamas region.

As with any tropical system this is very time sensitive. Perhaps it survives the second round of dry air and stalls under the ridge. That could give it time to rapidly intensify into a potent cyclone and track west into the Gulf. Maybe it gets stuck near one of the islands and avoids the wind shear. There are many avenues for 99L to take. We're still 3 days away until we truly know what will happen.


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There are stark differences in how far S and W that upper level trough actually digs, how much shear and how much dry air are involved from Euro to GFS.  

I'm sure. I'm tempted to buy WxBell again so I can see for myself haha.

Well one thing is for certain, the water temperatures in 99Ls path are very warm, the fuel source is there. I checked the Buoys around PR and they are in the mid-uppers 80°s off the Florida coast its in the high 80°s. Going to be interesting to see how it tracks.

Levi Cowin IMHO offers some of the best tropical analysis around.  Check it out. He really lays it out clear and concise and covers everything we've discussed today.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Bernie had a good video as well:

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/experts/video/2430839568001/depression-or-storm-likely-to-form-in-next-24-hours?autoStart=true

Yep love levi been follow him longer than been on njstrong. If he says it's a bit more likely you know it has to be watched as he usually errs on the cautious side never hyping anything. Chances up to hight 70% by nhc.

As of right now, this doesnt look to have a big impact on the east coast

sroc4 wrote:Levi Cowin IMHO offers some of the best tropical analysis around.  Check it out. He really lays it out clear and concise and covers everything we've discussed today.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Fantastic presentation. Levi is the best tropical expert I've seen.

The differences between the EURO and GFS in the short term are staggering. I must say, even looking at IR imagery now, I think EURO is closer to its current form. The wind shear Levi spoke about from the mid-level trough I think could dissipate thanks to Fiona. She's generally moving west toward the coast right as that trough from the mid Atlantic tries to come south. She's kinda in the way then a ridge ends up taking hold over the east.

I can definitely see why the EURO is correct. Oh boy...

Snow88 wrote:As of right now, this doesnt look to have a big impact on the east coast

This was never an east coast threat. We're going to end up with temps in the 90s this weekend thanks to that ridge. That said, if invest 99 does become a hurricane and tracks into the Gulf, we can't rule out a recurve of its remnants heading this way

Frank_Wx wrote:

Snow88 wrote:As of right now, this doesnt look to have a big impact on the east coast

This was never an east coast threat. We're going to end up with temps in the 90s this weekend thanks to that ridge. That said, if invest 99 does become a hurricane and tracks into the Gulf, we can't rule out a recurve of its remnants heading this way

Like the Euro

6+ inches of rain for the area

00z NAM at 84 hours. Also, H5 vort max intensity resembles Euro more than GFS

Nam looks more north than the other models IMO