2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

sroc4 wrote:It may look like nothing is imminent but I would not look at surface maps on LR projections to see if the tropics are active.  I hope we have learned by what has happened over the past two weeks tracking 99l/TD9/Hermine that anything beyond a few days can be extremely unpredictable regarding tropical cyclone formation and/or predictions.  That said here is an image taken from Larry Cosgrove noting the next 7 Tropical waves that need to me monitored over time.  Just because the current modeling doesnt have anything specific developing now doesn't mean that it isnt going to be active.  Id be willing to be that out of the blue we will see development.  IMO more than likely it will be as one of these waves gets beyond 60W that the modeling catches on.  




Here too is LC write up on the upcoming tropics. This was written on Sept 5th BTW:

Just a quick note/reminder that we are not done with the 2016 hurricane season. With the Hermine travesty starting to fade off the coast of the Northeast, attentions now turn to other threats for tropical cyclone development.
The first place to check is the African ITCZ. We should be able to squeeze out four or five more weeks of "Cape Verde" disturbances before the season does its "end zone" dances in the western Atlantic Basin. Note that there are seven well-defined impulses in a band from well south and west of the Cape Verde Islands all the way to Djibouti. It normally takes five stronger waves to guarantee a depression or named storm that reaches the major islands and/or U.S., so at least one important system should arise from this series.
There is also the matter of the already impressive Invest 92L, now zeroing in on Puerto Rico. This disturbance is unlikely to develop until it gets past Hispaniola and Cuba, in about three days. Entering the open Gulf of Mexico in late week, I foresee the system acquiring a closed circulation and strengthening trend as it moves into a trans-ridge weakness well south of Louisiana and Texas. I am following a blend of the ECMWF and GGEM schemes in moving a more-developed depression or tropical storm into the western Gulf Coast at some point in about 8 or 9 days from now.
And there will be more chances. Much of the western Atlantic Basin is still quite warm, and the upper atmospheric and temperature alignment that would support a storm strike in the eastern third of the U.S. looks to remain in place through the first half of October. With this being a weak La Nina set-up, the analogs of 1954 and 1995warn us of possible storm risks to Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. My suspicion is that repeated cycle of hot and humid periods will end in the eastern half of the country only after such a storm, in concert with a trough and cold front, exist the scene.
Bottom line "it ain't over 'til it's over", my friends....

jmanley32 wrote:Well models are not impressed with tropics through the end of the month, I know sometimes things pop up but I do not even see the slightest signs of LP other than one or two fish storms, mugs I think unless october is overactive your report from that other met may be incorrect.  If we go quietly out with hurricane season we better see some good noreasters and snow storms.

Frank_Wx wrote:Omg

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/775811736746287104

sroc4 wrote:One thing I should say about the CMC though Jman is sometimes its onto the right idea about track even if intensity of far fetched.  I def think its something to monitor as that wave gets past Hispaniola.  Its getting alot of dry air  at the moment.  

Joe Snow wrote:Oh Invest 93L what are you doing?

70% chance looks like, using my RADAR software, that its going to be named soon, Sustained winds 40+ KNTS.

St. Augustine is getting flooded.........

Hope it stays down there  

Snow88 wrote:GGEM had this one forming over land lol

sroc4 wrote:Jman 12L is likely the one that I was hinting at in my above post for the 20th-25th.  We shall see how it all shakes out over the next 7-14Days.  12L is just off the screen over the Cape Verde Islands on the Sat loop.  

jmanley32 wrote:Any chance Julia poses a threat to area if she stays as slow as she is and misses front? Hermine wasn't supposed to be a threat to the area and decided to be after crossing FL (well on her lead up to FL).  sroc from the Euro image I posted above looks like if that went out further in time there is a escape route to N and then NE, or would it stay under the HP as modeled in that run?  If we going to see any more threats its probably going to be very end of September through October, IMO.  Been a active season but nothing really monstrous, we still are supposed to see a few more majors but unless conditions improve I do not know if I see that happening.