2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

There is a ship transmitting data jut ahead of the storm:

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=H3VR

Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 Foot waves every 2 seconds, I am feeling sea sick

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=3FPS9

Echo Tops radar lots of covection

It was 11 years ago today (Wednesday, August 24th, 2005) that Katrina got its name as it became a tropical storm and approached South Florida.  The day before it was Tropical Depression 12 in the Caribbean and was disorganized.  

Here are two YouTube videos I came across years ago with footage from the Weather Channel.

The first one is of TD 12 and Dr. Steve Lyons explaining how it was a small system and that the region they were concerned most with was South Florida (ironic in hindsight as it turned out to NOT be the hardest hit region)



The second one is of Tropical Storm as it was approaching South Florida.  From 0:00 to 2:27, Kristina Abernathy analyzes Katrina as it strengthened to having 45 mph maximum sustained winds.  From 2:28 to 4:48, Dr. Steve Lyons states that while Katrina was at 50 mph, he thought it looked a lot stronger and that the next update from the NHC would have it much stronger.  But notice the projected path had it hitting the Florida panhandle once it reached the Gulf of Mexico when it fact, it ended up devastating the greater New Orleans area:



As Levi Cowan pointed out in the tropical tidbits video, there are obstacles in the development of 99L at the moment.  But the EURO, given that it does in fact become named storm in the gulf, has the landfall spread all through it from Texas to the Florida panhandle.

It will be interesting as to how the next EURO run handles the updated convection signals.

0z GGEM shifted east. East coast of Florida landfall.

0z Ukie has the low going across Florida and then hitting the gulf coast.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

Would say Florida is in the danger zone for this one right now, lots of variables, gulf coast is at risk too but not sure if itll go that far west. Im seeing an inland recurve as most likely now, possibly gaining stregnth as it re-enters the Atlantic and goes OTS. If it goes further west we could have a period of tropical moisture. Models popping up lots of waves in the Atl and things look to be heating up even if this peters out or somehow misses any US landmass.

The EURO still shows a category 1 hurricane hitting the Florida panhandle. It's the only model right now that shows a strong enough ridge over the east coast which allows 99L to track west into the Gulf. Fortunately for Louisana, it looks like it will re-curve back into Florida and toward the Carolinas. Not set in stone though.

So 99l's overall track over the last 24-48hrs combined with stronger and slight more persistent wind shear on the north side is responsible for the weaker trend IMHO.  


The track of the main surface wave has been to bring the main wave axis/low level center over the northern fringes of first PR and now Hispaniola which has been in large part responsible for preventing it, the LLC, from closing off.  We still do not have a defined LLC and the convection is still not over top of where the main wave axis of surface LP is, although this morning it looks like we have some convection firing near this main axis, (Just north of eastern Hispaniola).  There also appears to have a secondary surface center located SW of Hispaniola which when looking at the latest Sat loops this am looks to be stealing convection form the main wave axis.  






Because of this fact (no defined LLC) models may cont to struggle with exact track and intensity and the "windshield wiper" affect on the models may cont to persist over the next 24-36hrs.  There does also appear that there is still dry air and subsidence in front of the system and it may be ingesting some of this dry air.  

The latest vorticity maps show that the 850mb and 700mb are actually getting close to stacking up to where the main LLC wave axis is; however, 500mb vorticity still seems to be centered much further east over PR.    

850mb:



700mb:



500mb:



As the system conts to slowly move N and west it looks like both the GFS and Euro agree that 99l still has dry air issues to contend with as seen by the RH maps.  This has been discussed prev on here and doesn't come as a big shock. Hr 36 first




By Hr 84 both GFS and Euro no longer seem to have dry air issues.  




It seems on both the GFS and Euro forecast the system will cont to experience at least moderate shear for the next 24hrs.  However after that both forecasts show the shear dropping off significantly.  Its at this time that the wave is entering the Bahamas.  I still do not trust the GFS soln of an open wave in the Bahamas and no real development.  I have to believe based in the idea that the shear environment will improve and SST in this areas are extremely high that as long as there is not too much dry air entrained in the system that it will in fact develop into a trop storm and/or hurricane right before making landfall somewhere on the EC of Fla.  I will hold off on trying to figure out the track after it crosses into Fla for now because there are still way to many uncertainties for the next 1-3days regarding development, or lack thereof.  I certainly would not sleep on this system regardless of what the models say because if the conditions become just right, which is def possible, this system can develop fast and furious.  

We track!

I know its the NAM, but damn...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_6z/wrfloop.html#picture

Last run of the CMC suggested issues between the model picking up on the energy from Gaston and 99L

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=084&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

NHC giving it 80% chance of development within 5 days as of 8am update. Not buying the GFS solution it seems.

6z DGEX

Landfall on the east coast lol

SROC - awesome write ups that last couple of days and welcome back!!

How about this for eye candy peeps - HWRF - terrible model - suppose to be our (American) Hurricane Model

amugs wrote:SROC - awesome write ups that last couple of days and welcome back!!

How about this for eye candy peeps - HWRF - terrible model - suppose to be our (American) Hurricane Model

THanks Mugs. Great to be back. Nice to have something to track. I wouldnt discount this soln yet. If it makes it into the Gulf it will likely undergo rapid intensification.

Nam hits the east coast of Florida and stays there

Seems as though we should be safe from any impacts, as shown from ensembles, but will have to monitor for any changes on ridging/timing that could affect downstream path.

www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Invest-99L?map=ensmodel

We currently have an absolutely naked wave...we need to get some convection fired up over the center of the primary surface wave soon.

Yeah, it isn't looking too good, Sroc lmao Could the GFS actually do something right for once??????

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, it isn't looking too good, Sroc lmao Could the GFS actually do something right for once??????

Nah..the way I see it is even a blind squirrel finds a nut...even a broken clock is right twice a day...the sun occasionally shines on a dogs ars. I could keep going.
We will see what happens after its out of the high shear its been experiencing. The more I look the more un stacked the mid level virticity actually is from the surface spin. I still would not sleep on the system however, esp if it makes it into the gulf.

The euro is in.....and a hush filled the crowd

Circles S Fla coast as a 1000 mb LP then exits off the N Fla coast -

It's over.

I can't believe the gfs won the euro is caving to gfs. Just omg. Wow now what can we trust for tropics who knows.

Ehh lots of ensembles still have it going into the Gulf. Not sold on any solution yer

Frank_Wx wrote:Ehh lots of ensembles still have it going into the Gulf. Not sold on any solution yer

With the potential you just cant let the guard down yet. The OHC of the SE coast and GOM is simply too high. This could still go zero to sixty pretty quickly.