2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Ehh lots of ensembles still have it going into the Gulf. Not sold on any solution yer

Frank_Wx wrote:Ehh lots of ensembles still have it going into the Gulf. Not sold on any solution yer

With the potential you just cant let the guard down yet. The OHC of the SE coast and GOM is simply too high. This could still go zero to sixty pretty quickly.

Frank_Wx wrote:It's over.

Wait.............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It's over.

Wait.............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M

LOL Joe

lmao good one joe

Well frank you said it's over. I trust your insight a lot.

Still euro came in much weaker in short term but true sroc it could change once in Gulf if it makes it that way. Tropics are rather unpredictabe so I guess u can't get too pissed at the models.

When the system gets into the gulf is what's scary. Anything can happen we know that from history now

Frank_Wx wrote:Ehh lots of ensembles still have it going into the Gulf. Not sold on any solution yer

jmanley32 wrote:Well frank you said it's over. I trust your insight a lot.

I was being sarcastic. See my comment above

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It's over.

Wait.............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M

Haha, nice.

Seriously though, this may be a sheared out mess but if the wave stays intact enough and takes a track into the Gulf we'll have to watch out for rapid intensification. Ensembles are everywhere

This is one tough wave.............

Model anyone?

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

Nam has nothing

FWIW, the 0Z RGEM has a 999 mb low in the Bahamas on Saturday evening.

Frank_Wx wrote:It's over.

If 99L does become a destructive hurricane, I will save this on the list of most infamous posts on this forum.

Well frank your sarcasm was mistaken cuz honestly I could see how this is done. But we will see. Note nhc marked a new area in the gulf but almost no chance. I don't get why they mark areas that they expect not to develop.

Math23x7 wrote:FWIW, the 0Z RGEM has a 999 mb low in the Bahamas on Saturday evening.

Frank_Wx wrote:It's over.

If 99L does become a destructive hurricane, I will save this on the list of most infamous posts on this forum.

well that will have to ramp up darn quick to verify lol

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account
‏@NHC_Atlantic
USAF mission into 99L this morning canceled. System has low chance of tropical cyclone formation next 48 hours. #99L

Looks to remain active though moving forward

Just remember less than 24hrs ago it was a 60% chance.  Like snow said above its still active(although I think he is reffering to the trop season as a whole; not 99L ), and with shear dropping off significantly, dry air becoming less of a concern, extremely warm waters off the SE coast and GOM, and old stalled frontal boundary draped across eastern Tx extending through the GOM and across the southern half of Fla residents in that area cannot let their guard down just yet.

There are still a modest handfull of intensity models still brining it to at least Trop storm or weak Cat 1 status:

00z:



6z

99L is actuaslly 60% in the 5 day, only 20% in the 2 day, it never got above 50% in the 2 day I believe. I agree in the next few weeks I am sure if we aren't still tracking this thing we will be tracking others, possibly many.

LR likes to give us a spook (just for entertainment, since as we have seen models have been less than accurate even within the 5 day), well if GFS is right about 99L, will have to wonder about this one as it has been on and off with the models past few days as a large hurricane north of islands and heading north, no quick recurve. This looks like if its going to get marked by the NHC it would be around Tuesday as when it is showing on GFS to come off Africa. Has a decent chance IMO if it comes to fruition, rather than the past few storms.

sroc4 wrote:There are still a modest handfull of intensity models still brining it to at least Trop storm or weak Cat 1 status:

00z:



6z

Meh, I know people in FL, if it isn't a cat 2+ or higher they don't sweat it.

Joesnow, I seen your on storm2k, how is it over there, seems like they can get a bit nasty but I like their insight for the tropics. A lot of crazy rules. 160 pages though on 99L models wow.

FWIW, HWRF certainly wants to explode 99L sheesh

Ukie and CMC is back with a strengthening storm in the gulf

jmanley32 wrote:LR likes to give us a spook (just for entertainment, since as we have seen models have been less than accurate even within the 5 day), well if GFS is right about 99L, will have to wonder about this one as it has been on and off with the models past few days as a large hurricane north of islands and heading north, no quick recurve.  This looks like if its going to get marked by the NHC it would be around Tuesday as when it is showing on GFS to come off Africa.  Has a decent chance IMO if it comes to fruition, rather than the past few storms.

12z still has it