2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Any chance Julia poses a threat to area if she stays as slow as she is and misses front? Hermine wasn't supposed to be a threat to the area and decided to be after crossing FL (well on her lead up to FL). sroc from the Euro image I posted above looks like if that went out further in time there is a escape route to N and then NE, or would it stay under the HP as modeled in that run? If we going to see any more threats its probably going to be very end of September through October, IMO. Been a active season but nothing really monstrous, we still are supposed to see a few more majors but unless conditions improve I do not know if I see that happening.

jmanley32 wrote:Any chance Julia poses a threat to area if she stays as slow as she is and misses front? Hermine wasn't supposed to be a threat to the area and decided to be after crossing FL (well on her lead up to FL).  sroc from the Euro image I posted above looks like if that went out further in time there is a escape route to N and then NE, or would it stay under the HP as modeled in that run?  If we going to see any more threats its probably going to be very end of September through October, IMO.  Been a active season but nothing really monstrous, we still are supposed to see a few more majors but unless conditions improve I do not know if I see that happening.

Dont think so, HP looks to keep it suppressed out of the area and eventually it just stalls off the coast and the energy is picked up/kicked out by front. Dont see enough interaction to pull it up the coast although the models are a bit more robust with the system off the coast today but still well to the south, we just get the front perhaps with a bit of enhancement.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Yeah cmc blows it up to strong hurricane, I don't know if I buy that but then again it is in a prim area. Why are there no TS warnings down there? Its right on shore or off, its negligible.

amugs wrote:Why is the Atlantic so hostile for Jman's  dear tropical cyclones?? 

The answer is in this map below

Its primo over off the EC, but they have to traverse that very dry area, which is difficult to say the least.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Why is the Atlantic so hostile for Jman's  dear tropical cyclones?? 

The answer is in this map below

Its primo over off the EC, but they have to traverse that very dry area, which is difficult to say the least.

That area has been improving over all, still very dry in the Caribbean but not as bad by Africa and in the C-Atl as it was earlier like last week.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Any chance Julia poses a threat to area if she stays as slow as she is and misses front? Hermine wasn't supposed to be a threat to the area and decided to be after crossing FL (well on her lead up to FL).  sroc from the Euro image I posted above looks like if that went out further in time there is a escape route to N and then NE, or would it stay under the HP as modeled in that run?  If we going to see any more threats its probably going to be very end of September through October, IMO.  Been a active season but nothing really monstrous, we still are supposed to see a few more majors but unless conditions improve I do not know if I see that happening.

Dont think so, HP looks to keep it suppressed out of the area and eventually it just stalls off the coast and the energy is picked up/kicked out by front. Dont see enough interaction to pull it up the coast although the models are a bit more robust with the system off the coast today but still well to the south, we just get the front perhaps with a bit of enhancement.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Agreed if anything if the front stalls close to the coast or backs up some there may be some enhanced rainfall but I don't see a mechanism to bring the main components of Julie north to our area. Regarding extrapolating the euro I'll say there is a weakness in the ridge to the north with a trough dipping in between, and a low pressure east of the main system. It's what happens to these features combined with how strong the system is as well as just how far north or south it is by the time it gets to that longitude that would dictate where the system goes from there. Two many variables to guess at this point.

sroc4 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Any chance Julia poses a threat to area if she stays as slow as she is and misses front? Hermine wasn't supposed to be a threat to the area and decided to be after crossing FL (well on her lead up to FL).  sroc from the Euro image I posted above looks like if that went out further in time there is a escape route to N and then NE, or would it stay under the HP as modeled in that run?  If we going to see any more threats its probably going to be very end of September through October, IMO.  Been a active season but nothing really monstrous, we still are supposed to see a few more majors but unless conditions improve I do not know if I see that happening.

Dont think so, HP looks to keep it suppressed out of the area and eventually it just stalls off the coast and the energy is picked up/kicked out by front. Dont see enough interaction to pull it up the coast although the models are a bit more robust with the system off the coast today but still well to the south, we just get the front perhaps with a bit of enhancement.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Agreed if anything if the front stalls close to the coast or backs up some there may be some enhanced rainfall but I don't see a mechanism to bring the main components of Julie north to our area. Regarding extrapolating the euro I'll say there is a weakness in the ridge to the north with a trough dipping in between, and a low pressure east of the main system. It's what happens to these features combined with how strong the system is as well as just how far north or south it is by the time it gets to that longitude that would dictate where the system goes from there. Two many variables to guess at this point.

Yes, I was just merely stating on that particular run it looked like there was a gap between the two HP that could allow it to go ots. If it does intensify to what the Euro shows this could be our next major and could possibly post a threat to the US late next week, as it appears it will be a fast mover, but that can also hinter systems.

I have to say TD 12 looks pretty impressive. Already has spin and some outflow on both sides. Kinda spreads out bit more in last few frames but also lower resolution with sun setting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

Sroc Id say the EURO shoots the gap between the HP with the Hcane its blowing up out of 12 and passes just east of Bermuda, obviously lots of time left but the CMC has the signal too.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Sroc Id say the EURO shoots the gap between the HP with the Hcane its blowing up out of 12 and passes just east of Bermuda, obviously lots of time left but the CMC has the signal too.

I can def buy that given the current forecasted 500mb.  Lots of runs to go though.  FWIW it looks like the new NHC forecast for TS Julia is in line with the CMC with the center drifting out over water and the possibility of minor strengthening over the next 1-2 days.  



TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

The storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with
little deep convection over the western and southern portions of
the circulation.  The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt
based on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data.  Since the system is
expected to be over water for the next couple of days,  some
strengthening is now possible.  However the vertical shear, which
is currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models
to increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours.  This strong shear should
limit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest
official forecast.  The NHC forecast is also very close to
the latest intensity model consensus.

FWIW 0z CMC run seems to show some more interaction between Julia and the front perhaps bringing us a little bit of extra rainfall. Could be the CMC being the CMC but its got my attention, not the main storm we need to watch for but if its energy can get picked up by the trough and it looks much more neutral opposed to positive this run.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Next one to track?

Snow88 wrote:Next one to track?

The NHC forecast cone has already shifted south relative to yesterday. I wish I saved the image from yesterday but I did saved this one. If anyone has saved it please post it in here please. Each morning I am going to save this image so we can monitor the changes in the NHC forecast track over time.

Staying south would give this a further west track no?

I can save the image at each advisory. Or I'll try at least.

jmanley32 wrote:Staying south would give this a further west track no?

Yes. Also the weaker it stays the further west it will go.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Staying south would give this a further west track no?

Yes. Also the weaker it stays the further west it will go.

Yep, doesnt mean it will hit land though (US landfall) as I still see a gap in the HPs it could escape through if it deepens fast enough. A recurve could happen very sharply and often does but its something to watch, esp. If the pac recurve rule (with the big typhoon that just hit) actually is true but I'm always wary of things like that.

Heat Content in the Caribbean and Gulf as well as EC is HOT!!


Saharan Dust diminished to menial bits

How about the 10 day Euro!  Yikes 928mb! I dunno boys, this could be our big one for the year, Euro likes to sniff these bad boys out this time of year, hey he got Sandy right. Getting a lot closer than earlier runs. And has been consistently shown on the Euro and CMC, GFS is on its own. Hey 240 hrs is 10 days out but it ain't fantasy land.  Lots of time, nowhere near a solution but thats a ominous storm headed this way if it does indeed do so.  I would expect this from the CMC, but Euro this far out? HMMM....

amugs wrote:Heat Content in the Caribbean and Gulf as well as EC is HOT!!


Saharan Dust diminished to menial bits

With this info Euro may not be too far off from the truth with TD12. Which is what is shown developing this monster cat 3. Wind gust map at that pt has 138kt gusts jeeze.

impressive...i expect ts soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

12z NAVGEM woah

euro ensembles have 3 mega hits to the area, almost all the ensembles have this getting very strong, but location is all over the place, most show a recurve but there are those ones that show a major impact on east coast.

control anyone? yes this is fantasyland and its a miss but def signs this one needs to b watched.

Gloria has been mentioned on a few boards as a analog, boy do I remember her. I was only 4 but I was in lexington MA at the time and a tree fell through the front of the house blocking the stairs.  It was very scary.  

We have tropical storm Karl ,note that he is no longer forecasted to go back to a depression.

Wow euro and nav gem and even cmc keep idea of a monstrous storm. cat 4 or so on euro and euro crushed Bermuda with a recurve on ooz. Still plenty of time but I think this one is worthy of its own thread now that it's karl.