2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

jmanley32 wrote:Gfs still showing a powerful hurricane into fl bend. 2 this yr? Fantasy land but even cmc and euro have the system very far south off africa and part way across atlantic by 240. May b one to watch in a week or so. I'm not sure if it's a pouch over africa right now or not. Karl amazing back to depression. Atlantic is just hostile. But if this storm the models are showing stay that far south and then curve north in similar spot to sandy or irene I think a storm in thst area could maintain.

Why don't we all just chip in and buy you a big industrial fan that you can turn on yourself while you take a shower. This way you can live a hurricane daily.

GfS still shows it at 12z. Spinning in the gulf at 384 hours.

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gfs still showing a powerful hurricane into fl bend. 2 this yr? Fantasy land but even cmc and euro have the system very far south off africa and part way across atlantic by 240. May b one to watch in a week or so. I'm not sure if it's a pouch over africa right now or not. Karl amazing back to depression. Atlantic is just hostile. But if this storm the models are showing stay that far south and then curve north in similar spot to sandy or irene I think a storm in thst area could maintain.

Why don't we all just chip in and buy you a big industrial fan that you can turn on yourself while you take a shower.  This way you can live a hurricane daily.

haha what can I do for blizzards? Gonna have to have a shower of shaved ice lol

6z GFS
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/06z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f348.png?1364096147
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/06z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f372.png?1364096147

GFS has been showing this storm for a while now

Damn snow u beat me to it, that would be devastating. Pure fantasy land on the track, but storms as we said from that starting point can come up the coast. 100+ mph sustained on that one.

The other models show this storm too, just do not go out far enough to bring it any further than the deep tropics. Def something to watch for development over the next 1-2 weeks.

Pattern recognition is key.  Just remember its the pattern that may OR may not result in a tropical system at or near the EC//GOM/Carribean region in and around this time frame.  Check out the 500mb anomalies on EPS for first week in Oct.(GEFS similar) In the words of JB...




Remember I showed a similar pattern in the LR approx 10-14days ago and yes we have Karl, and Karl in the LR on the surface maps looked all mighty, but look at how that turned out.   On the images above in addition to the ridge over troubled waters there is also a trough East of the ridge out in the mid Atlantic, which like whats happening to Karl now may once again lead to a trend towards a swing and a miss wide Right.  So we wait and...WE TRACK!!!!

12z cmc hr 240 really? Get ur act together.lol like a dozen lp in Atlantic dnd eastern pacific put together.

And oh ya I'm not putting any stake in ant possible tropucal outputs on models was just a crazy fantasy run. One wpuld have to verify someday u would think.

jmanley32 wrote:12z cmc hr 240 really? Get ur act together.lol like a dozen lp in Atlantic dnd eastern pacific put together.

lol

Here it is, pouch 39, the system that COULD become a issue in the LR. We track now lets see if it can make it through the MDR, it will have decent conditions in caribbean, I was reading on storm2k that we have not seen a system this far south off africa in a while. Won't take long to get there, its rocketing at 20-25 mph!

JMAN - teh further south they get this time of year the GOM and EC needs to watch carefully - to far North they get caught up in teh westerlies and get taken for a ride OTS.

2nd half comeback??? LOTS of time left in this season.

Well there is immense consensus on potential Matthew through the western caribbean among the GFS, CMC and Euro along with the GFS ensembles. The 06z has a cat 5 into FL big bend, Hermaine track but we do not luck out this time? Not that this will verify at 300 hrs (Oct. 5th) but ya its been anywhere from GOM to up this way. Right now can really only focus on IF it develops which models do, and really blow it up too. Long ways to go with this one, nothing to really track to much for about another 5 days. Still at 20% in the 5 day. I imagine this will increase as it gets closer to the islands.

12z gfs still has storm developing around leeward in 100 hrs or sp then exploding into a huge storm in west central caribbean. By this time does this have a chance to go north or does it look like a gom storm at this time? I think we can really only go out to max of 240 and even then its crap shoot.

jmanley32 wrote:12z gfs still has storm developing around leeward in 100 hrs or sp then exploding into a huge storm in west central caribbean. By this time does this have a chance to go north or does it look like a gom storm at this time? I think we can really only go out to max of 240 and even then its crap shoot.

Did you look at 500mb? What does it look like?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:12z gfs still has storm developing around leeward in 100 hrs or sp then exploding into a huge storm in west central caribbean. By this time does this have a chance to go north or does it look like a gom storm at this time? I think we can really only go out to max of 240 and even then its crap shoot.

Did you look at 500mb?  What does it look like?

The GFS has it go across Yucatan so something keeps it well south, I have a hard time understanding the 500mb, I know yes I have been here a long time but the way I learn I really need someone to sit down with me explain draw etc.  My ability to read and apply is difficult.  I think this def poses a threat per the models to someone, lets say for now the islands because after that we are pushing truncation. BTW look at this!  If this turns north FL and EC are in deep s##t, IF it verified, which after the models this year blowing everything up.  But one thing noted by models and other boards agreeing the Euro and GFS all deepen this to  a very strong storm, the GFS much more, I think the low of 12z was 904mb?

CMC has almost identical placement at 240 hrs. that's saying something IMO. All 3 models agree through 240, then of course its all over and even before 240 hrs its gonna change all over, we need a system to develop of course first and who knows, that may not even happen but with the serious model support I would err on the side that it will develop into Matthew. Surprised there no jump in chances since they started issuing. May be waiting until it gets closer to the shaded area.

Honestly 240+ hrs out the area circled is the area that is still in play with this system.  We have had surface solns up into New England to now staying south into the potential Yucatan Peninsula and inbetween.  I personally wouldn't even begin to try and figure out what specific area should watch out until we reach 60W.  That is the magic Longitude.  

sroc4 wrote:Honestly 240+ hrs out the area circled is the area that is still in play with this system.  We have had surface solns up into New England to now staying south into the potential Yucatan Peninsula and inbetween.  I personally wouldn't even begin to try and figure out what specific area should watch out until we reach 60W.  That is the magic Longitude.  

Which is in about 5 days per the models, so just sit and wait and see I guess, yeah love the circle lol., might as well include California too. JK

And Euro drops development completely, lol check back in on this in several days.

18z GFS, fantasyland to the MAX

Goodbye Bayou!!

jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS, fantasyland to the MAX

950mb hitting LA, sure they dont need the rain or a hurricane that intense. Luckily for them its the GFS in the long range so it probably wont verify, but I see the CMC going in the same direction before the run cuts off which is a bit concerning.

Western Florida monster hit on the GFS. Gets absorbed by the trough and then probably rides the coast after that. Interesting but still ways out.

mugs NJ, the surface pressure is well into the low 900's on both 18z and 00z making this a cat 5 for NO or FL for 00z. Both are show a catestrophic hit for Jamaica and on the 00z ya snow, looks like it would traverse and wreak kavok up the EC with at least TS force conditions,,,but at 384 hrs thats a who knows. Lots of talk bout this one though across weather boards, been a long time since the GFS has shown a monster storm like this even for fantasyland, it like a doomsday storm, i cant even imagine how hude this would look if it did come to fruition. Not counting on anything now, just having fun seeing the models. The Euro jumped off so if it jumps back on that will make things more interesting. I think we can look and say theres at least a somewhat decent chance there is a TS or minimal hurricane around the leewards in about 3-5 days. We track!