2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

We have tropical storm Karl ,note that he is no longer forecasted to go back to a depression.

Wow euro and nav gem and even cmc keep idea of a monstrous storm. cat 4 or so on euro and euro crushed Bermuda with a recurve on ooz. Still plenty of time but I think this one is worthy of its own thread now that it's karl.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro and nav gem and even cmc keep idea of a monstrous storm. cat 4 or so on euro and euro crushed Bermuda with a recurve on ooz. Still plenty of time but I think this one is worthy of its own thread now that it's karl.

Jman lets give this one a few more days before it gets its own thread.  As of now a recurve is favored based on the EPS and GEFS ensemble forecasts.  




However, just look at how big the cone of uncertainty is in the 3-5day.  Where Karl is in the 3-5day and how strong he is at that time will play a key role once he moves beyond 60W.  Take a look at the NHC track forecast from this morning(first image) compared to yesterday morning(second image).  Notice how yesterdays forecast was to keep it a depression until Monday; whereas it has already developed into a named system.  So in theory its 3days ahead of schedule.  The general rule is the stronger it is when it reaches 60W and beyond the stronger likelihood it recurves esp with the way the 500mb pattern is currently being modeled.  But as we know the further out in time the greater the margin for error.  Sooooo......WE TRACK!!    

Wowzer!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IXergfDWg9o

sroc4 wrote:Wowzer!  

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IXergfDWg9o

Goodammn!!! What are those 400 foot wave crashes, and wow, truck back falling like they are tin cans, that's crazy.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro and nav gem and even cmc keep idea of a monstrous storm. cat 4 or so on euro and euro crushed Bermuda with a recurve on ooz. Still plenty of time but I think this one is worthy of its own thread now that it's karl.

Jman lets give this one a few more days before it gets its own thread.  As of now a recurve is favored based on the EPS and GEFS ensemble forecasts.  




However, just look at how big the cone of uncertainty is in the 3-5day.  Where Karl is in the 3-5day and how strong he is at that time will play a key role once he moves beyond 60W.  Take a look at the NHC track forecast from this morning(first image) compared to yesterday morning(second image).  Notice how yesterdays forecast was to keep it a depression until Monday; whereas it has already developed into a named system.  So in theory its 3days ahead of schedule.  The general rule is the stronger it is when it reaches 60W and beyond the stronger likelihood it recurves esp with the way the 500mb pattern is currently being modeled.  But as we know the further out in time the greater the margin for error.  Sooooo......WE TRACK!!    

Well even if it is a recurve (not out of the question it could threaten the EC, and if the Euro is at all correct god help us all) from what models are hinting in intensity (now hurricane by Wed, wouldn't be surprised if well before) this may be one we want to archive just for it being a possibly big amazing looking storm, but I can see waiting a bit longer.  Just figured we are gonna have many storms to discuss in the coming weeks as African wave train looks busy and separate threads is easier. Oh BTW Someone I read on another board found old forecasts from Gloria who had a similar projection to recurve well away from the US, so you just never really know. Also note the western most Euro ensembles are close enough to bring at least coastal impacts if not landfalls and some do show cat 2+ landfalls, albeit not many.  Those sgetti just do not go out far enough.

Bermuda also takes a blasting hit from the 00z Euro, that wouldn't be good.

If my eyes are not wrong it looks like the LLC is racing away from the convection?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

JMan let me be clear. I am not calling for a recurve OR an EC landfall. Absolutely an EC landfall is possible. We have seen time and time again the LR 500mb pattern change over and over. But it's 10days away. My point really is that within the last 24hrs the forecast for Karl has changed drastically so no sense in getting too worked up on something One way or the other when it's likely to change multiple times between now and then.

sroc4 wrote:JMan let me be clear. I am not calling for a recurve OR an EC landfall. Absolutely an EC landfall is possible. We have seen time and time again the LR 500mb pattern change over and over. But it's 10days away. My point really is that within the last 24hrs the forecast for Karl has changed drastically so no sense in getting too worked up on something One way or the other when it's likely to change multiple times between now and then.  

Yes agreed, it does look like it stands a decent chance to get pretty reved up though but we shall see, and ya a lot of changes in only 2 days.  If you did not see the euro control run check it out, its a little "loopy" lol hint

GFS and CMC recurves this storm

So does euro but there is still a long ways to go. As I said people on other tropucal boards have referenced Gloria as it developed this same week in 1985 and was also shown to go ots. So things will change. In what direction dunno yet but there is a strong signal right now for a recurve. 12z euro was also 10x weaker than yesterday's runs. Nav gem still has a monster hurricane just north of the islands in about 8 days and has had tgat almost identical run to run for about 4 to 5 runs now.

GGEM and GFS shifted west with a later recurve along with the hurricane models. UMMMM.

Yesterday mornings NHC forecast vs this mornings for Karl.  Take note intensification to hurricane status is now delayed by a day, but the official track has shifted north a little.  One thing to note is that even though todays offcial track is slight further north compared to yesterday in the longer term, if you notice where yesterdays track forecasted the center to be by Sat 2am and compare it to where the center actually is as of the 5am update this morning (look between 40W & 35W) you will notice that the actual track from yesterday to today was along the southern part of the cone of uncertainty.  We will have to see if that trend continues over the next few days.  In another few days I will start to pay much closer attention to the evolution of the ridging and trough features coming off the EC and in the N Atlantic that will ultimately decide the track once it moves beyond 60W.  Still heavily leaning on recurve, however the weaker it stays and the further south the track is in that cone of uncertainty the better chance it has to missing the weakness in the ridge allowing the ridge to build in stronger over top which would allow Karl to slip underneath and head further west.    







Yesterdays 00z ensemble forecasts vs this mornings.  GEFS then EPS:

GFS is more west than the past run and weaker. Still a fish storm.

Snow88 wrote:GFS is more west than the past run and weaker. Still a fish storm.

If it misses the trough in SE CAN and over teh North Atlantic then it can come more west. Only time will tell.

Euro is further west too and blows it up to a 923mb storm right by Bermuda but thats b4 getting ominously closer to the us. Time will tell.

Joe Cioffi saying this

b

Well then we can pretry much bank on a western track jk

Karl looks OTS

Boring tropical season continues

Snow88 wrote:Karl looks OTS

Boring tropical season continues

To a degree but ain't over by a long shot IMO - we have about 3 more Trop Waves to watch and the further south they are the more west they get - this season goes until late October maybe early Nov at this point.

GFS keeps showing a storm coming up from the South America at the end of the run.

saw that snow, if you follow closely its actually a cabo verde storm that's at a VERY low latitude and comes up to head into FL or up EC, those storms tend to be our biggest threat. I believe Irene & Sandy did something similar to this at their starting point. Shoot but we are just chopping away at the names but nothing of real significance yet. Something tells me this season may go out with a bang in mid to late October. We have already surpassed the low end of named storms but not in terms of hurricane or majors, did we even have a major yet?

jmanley32 wrote:saw that snow, if you follow closely its actually a cabo verde storm that's at a VERY low latitude and comes up to head into FL or up EC, those storms tend to be our biggest threat. I believe Irene & Sandy did something similar to this at their starting point.  Shoot but we are just chopping away at the names but nothing of real significance yet.  Something tells me this season may go out with a bang in mid to late October. We have already surpassed the low end of named storms but not in terms of hurricane or majors, did we even have a major yet?

Yep, Sandy and Irene did that.

Gfs still showing a powerful hurricane into fl bend. 2 this yr? Fantasy land but even cmc and euro have the system very far south off africa and part way across atlantic by 240. May b one to watch in a week or so. I'm not sure if it's a pouch over africa right now or not. Karl amazing back to depression. Atlantic is just hostile. But if this storm the models are showing stay that far south and then curve north in similar spot to sandy or irene I think a storm in thst area could maintain.

jmanley32 wrote:Gfs still showing a powerful hurricane into fl bend. 2 this yr? Fantasy land but even cmc and euro have the system very far south off africa and part way across atlantic by 240. May b one to watch in a week or so. I'm not sure if it's a pouch over africa right now or not. Karl amazing back to depression. Atlantic is just hostile. But if this storm the models are showing stay that far south and then curve north in similar spot to sandy or irene I think a storm in thst area could maintain.

Why don't we all just chip in and buy you a big industrial fan that you can turn on yourself while you take a shower. This way you can live a hurricane daily.

GfS still shows it at 12z. Spinning in the gulf at 384 hours.