March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:31 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well. pale
no it hasn't...


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:31 pm

I'm now downgraded to snow showers accumulation around 1" according to TWC
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:35 pm

Wrong CMC focuses on a different piece of energy, still 6-12 I-95.



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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:36 pm




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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:41 pm


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well. pale
no it hasn't...
Well..maybe cavING?  Lol. That's not a bad snowfall at allllll if it came to fruition tho. I'll take it.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:49 pm

ukie...

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:50 pm



that's about 6-9" on the ukie. I will take euro ukie over gfs any time.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:00 pm

ukie is slightly east and weaker than ooz so something to be concerned about. maybe gfs will be right idk. i'm not buying it's solution just yet. if I had to make a prediction I would say a moderate snowfall for nyc metro 4"+ more east.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:10 pm

algae888 wrote:ukie is slightly east and weaker than ooz so something to be concerned about. maybe gfs will be right idk. i'm not buying it's solution just yet. if I had to make a prediction I would say a moderate snowfall for nyc metro 4"+ more east.

Al ditto that prediction and the Ukie slows things down a bit too.
Heck a 4" plus snowfall for this time in March is a dam good snowstorm - the models are cutting back on amounts not 12-18" type and a bomb but CMC and ukie are showing good snowstorms for us. If I get 4" then in this raging winter of warmth I still reach my average for the year - take that HELLNINO!!! Models have gone from one extreme to the other with ALL storms this winter so why be surprised and don't jump ship yet. HECS is likely off the table at this point but a SECS to possible MECS is there by all means (more secs at this point). One never knows now with big momma!

NAVGEM saying a nice coastal STILL:


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:13 pm

UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6- 9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by hyde345 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:27 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

Mugs, nobody is going to cry over that but if the GFS verifies then get the tissues ready.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:35 pm

The stats from another board
Just to set expectations about how rare this would be...

There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869.

The last one was 24 years ago.

There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10".

We should be thrilled if we get 2-3".

1875-04-12 - 10.0"

1890-03-19 - 6.0"

1892-03-17 - 8.0"

1915-04-03 - 10.2"

1917-04-08 - 6.5"

1924-04-01 - 8.5"

1938-04-06 - 6.4"

1944-04-05 - 6.5"

1956-03-16 - 6.7"

1956-03-18 - 11.6"

1958-03-20 - 11.8"

1967-03-22 - 9.0"

1982-04-06 - 9.6"

1992-03-19 - 6.2"
Although models like the euro we're producing a foot or more snow for our area the stats above have to be taking into account when making a forecast. I mean almost 150 years and only 14 storms of 6 inches plus and none over a foot.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:45 pm

Personally if we are not going to get a blockbuster storm I just want spring. 4 inches is just going to melt in a day with the temps progged.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:49 pm

Bulk of snow is after 5PM so what we get before that is meh and once teh sun goes down then we get stickage as BL temp drops - about 6-10 hours on the GGEM and Ukie as well as JMA for this storm - not the 12 -16 hour one the euro was showing - come on EURO bring it back baby!!

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:03 pm

algae888 wrote:The stats from another board
Just to set expectations about how rare this would be...

There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869.

The last one was 24 years ago.

There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10".

We should be thrilled if we get 2-3".

1875-04-12 - 10.0"

1890-03-19 - 6.0"

1892-03-17 - 8.0"

1915-04-03 - 10.2"

1917-04-08 - 6.5"

1924-04-01 - 8.5"

1938-04-06 - 6.4"

1944-04-05 - 6.5"

1956-03-16 - 6.7"

1956-03-18 - 11.6"

1958-03-20 - 11.8"

1967-03-22 - 9.0"

1982-04-06 - 9.6"

1992-03-19 - 6.2"
Although models like the euro we're producing a foot or more snow for our area the stats above have to be taking into account when making a forecast. I mean almost 150 years and only 14 storms of 6 inches plus and none over a foot.


Al that's fine and dandy for NYC which for the most part is the warmest area in the tri state other than the central Jersey shore, and as we all know always under measures anyway. but just not even close to true for anyone 20 miles or more north and west of the city, for them it's just another kick in the ass.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:06 pm

hyde345 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

Mugs, nobody is going to cry over that but if the GFS verifies then get the tissues ready.

Hate to break it to you Mugs but the green over all of us is 10-15 MM which equals .38 to .58 of LE.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:11 pm

Hearing the 12z EUROPEAN is coming BACK from it's nap at 00z. Shocked
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:14 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Hearing the 12z EUROPEAN is coming BACK from it's nap at 00z. Shocked

EURO WAS BLIP ON THE 0Z LAST NIGHT NOT A BOMB BUT IN LINE WITH UKIE AND CMC - NICCCEEEE!! NOT DONE YET WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT YOU WATCH

most in NJ NYC and E get a warning event
.7 in 12 hours -5 at 850. 31 KNYC.


Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:16 pm


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:20 pm

I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now. The precip is whats not done trending. This is going to get wetter and wetter. Im telling you it aint ova!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now.  The precip is whats not done trending.  This is going to get wetter and wetter.  Im telling you it aint ova!

Track looking clear to me based on Euro/CMC/UKIE/NAM all in good agreement in LP placement. What is not done yet is the focus of the precip. I am telling YOU all it aint OVA!!

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:25 pm

Look how amped up the Main energy is on the RGEM:



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now.  The precip is whats not done trending.  This is going to get wetter and wetter.  Im telling you it aint ova!

Track looking clear to me based on Euro/CMC/UKIE/NAM all in good agreement in LP placement.  What is not done yet is the focus of the precip.  I am telling YOU all it aint OVA!!
You have very warm SST's off the coast. Can't wait for the hi-res models get in better range. Would not be surprised to see upward ticks in the precip amounts as we get closer to the event. A couple of bumps westward wouldn't hurt either.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:30 pm

I think we get wetter and wetter- I see the .5" line pushing up to NNJ/NY LHV - SECS yes with MECS within reach for just about all of our board members. Nice runs by foreigners today - better here yuo go SCOTT - SPACING between teh LP out in the HOTLANTIC and this system - teh slower the better and we have swung back. Still time to swing more to teh good side from teh GooFuS dark side here. Love to see teh SREFS tonight/tomorrow

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