March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

I'm actually laughing at this it's so pathetic. Either that or break down and go stark raving mad.

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

Not surprised Frank take down the scroll, its painful... and put 60s to 70s coming to a city near you!! LOL

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

no it hasn't...

I'm now downgraded to snow showers accumulation around 1" according to TWC

Wrong CMC focuses on a different piece of energy, still 6-12 I-95.

algae888 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

no it hasn't...

Well..maybe cavING?  Lol. That's not a bad snowfall at allllll if it came to fruition tho. I'll take it.

ukie...

that's about 6-9" on the ukie. I will take euro ukie over gfs any time.

ukie is slightly east and weaker than ooz so something to be concerned about. maybe gfs will be right idk. i'm not buying it's solution just yet. if I had to make a prediction I would say a moderate snowfall for nyc metro 4"+ more east.

algae888 wrote:ukie is slightly east and weaker than ooz so something to be concerned about. maybe gfs will be right idk. i'm not buying it's solution just yet. if I had to make a prediction I would say a moderate snowfall for nyc metro 4"+ more east.

Al ditto that prediction and the Ukie slows things down a bit too.
Heck a 4" plus snowfall for this time in March is a dam good snowstorm - the models are cutting back on amounts not 12-18" type and a bomb but CMC and ukie are showing good snowstorms for us. If I get 4" then in this raging winter of warmth I still reach my average for the year - take that HELLNINO!!! Models have gone from one extreme to the other with ALL storms this winter so why be surprised and don't jump ship yet. HECS is likely off the table at this point but a SECS to possible MECS is there by all means (more secs at this point). One never knows now with big momma!

NAVGEM saying a nice coastal STILL:

UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6- 9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

Mugs, nobody is going to cry over that but if the GFS verifies then get the tissues ready.

The stats from another board
Just to set expectations about how rare this would be...

There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869.

The last one was 24 years ago.

There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10".

We should be thrilled if we get 2-3".

1875-04-12 - 10.0"

1890-03-19 - 6.0"

1892-03-17 - 8.0"

1915-04-03 - 10.2"

1917-04-08 - 6.5"

1924-04-01 - 8.5"

1938-04-06 - 6.4"

1944-04-05 - 6.5"

1956-03-16 - 6.7"

1956-03-18 - 11.6"

1958-03-20 - 11.8"

1967-03-22 - 9.0"

1982-04-06 - 9.6"

1992-03-19 - 6.2"
Although models like the euro we're producing a foot or more snow for our area the stats above have to be taking into account when making a forecast. I mean almost 150 years and only 14 storms of 6 inches plus and none over a foot.

Personally if we are not going to get a blockbuster storm I just want spring. 4 inches is just going to melt in a day with the temps progged.

Bulk of snow is after 5PM so what we get before that is meh and once teh sun goes down then we get stickage as BL temp drops - about 6-10 hours on the GGEM and Ukie as well as JMA for this storm - not the 12 -16 hour one the euro was showing - come on EURO bring it back baby!!

algae888 wrote:The stats from another board
Just to set expectations about how rare this would be...

There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869.

The last one was 24 years ago.

There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10".

We should be thrilled if we get 2-3".

1875-04-12 - 10.0"

1890-03-19 - 6.0"

1892-03-17 - 8.0"

1915-04-03 - 10.2"

1917-04-08 - 6.5"

1924-04-01 - 8.5"

1938-04-06 - 6.4"

1944-04-05 - 6.5"

1956-03-16 - 6.7"

1956-03-18 - 11.6"

1958-03-20 - 11.8"

1967-03-22 - 9.0"

1982-04-06 - 9.6"

1992-03-19 - 6.2"
Although models like the euro we're producing a foot or more snow for our area the stats above have to be taking into account when making a forecast. I mean almost 150 years and only 14 storms of 6 inches plus and none over a foot.

Al that's fine and dandy for NYC which for the most part is the warmest area in the tri state other than the central Jersey shore, and as we all know always under measures anyway. but just not even close to true for anyone 20 miles or more north and west of the city, for them it's just another kick in the ass.

hyde345 wrote:

amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????

Mugs, nobody is going to cry over that but if the GFS verifies then get the tissues ready.

Hate to break it to you Mugs but the green over all of us is 10-15 MM which equals .38 to .58 of LE.

Hearing the 12z EUROPEAN is coming BACK from it's nap at 00z.

SoulSingMG wrote:Hearing the 12z EUROPEAN is coming BACK from it's nap at 00z.

EURO WAS BLIP ON THE 0Z LAST NIGHT NOT A BOMB BUT IN LINE WITH UKIE AND CMC - NICCCEEEE!! NOT DONE YET WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT YOU WATCH

most in NJ NYC and E get a warning event
.7 in 12 hours -5 at 850. 31 KNYC.

I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now. The precip is whats not done trending. This is going to get wetter and wetter. Im telling you it aint ova!

sroc4 wrote:I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now.  The precip is whats not done trending.  This is going to get wetter and wetter.  Im telling you it aint ova!

Track looking clear to me based on Euro/CMC/UKIE/NAM all in good agreement in LP placement. What is not done yet is the focus of the precip. I am telling YOU all it aint OVA!!

Look how amped up the Main energy is on the RGEM:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I have intentionally stayed away from all forums and my phone until right now.  The precip is whats not done trending.  This is going to get wetter and wetter.  Im telling you it aint ova!

Track looking clear to me based on Euro/CMC/UKIE/NAM all in good agreement in LP placement.  What is not done yet is the focus of the precip.  I am telling YOU all it aint OVA!!

You have very warm SST's off the coast. Can't wait for the hi-res models get in better range. Would not be surprised to see upward ticks in the precip amounts as we get closer to the event. A couple of bumps westward wouldn't hurt either.

I think we get wetter and wetter- I see the .5" line pushing up to NNJ/NY LHV - SECS yes with MECS within reach for just about all of our board members. Nice runs by foreigners today - better here yuo go SCOTT - SPACING between teh LP out in the HOTLANTIC and this system - teh slower the better and we have swung back. Still time to swing more to teh good side from teh GooFuS dark side here. Love to see teh SREFS tonight/tomorrow