Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:57 am

Good we don't need it.breezy and rough surf nothing crazy going on here

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:09 am

It would be great for analysis of what went wrong

by **Radz** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:33 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Current SLP location and radar (where covered)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Doesn't look very impressive and I don't like to toot my own horn but it looks like it's escaping east and is weak. Especially because I wanted a little action (ex. wind and especially rain, we could use it), but it's not gonna happen. I actually am feeling confident at this point about that given the look.

Gotta give credit where credit is due, I don't see how this would turn and make a run at the coast at this juncture, it looks way further east than expected, think you were spot on with your gut feeling and analysis, a few more hours and i think you can toot away

by Guest Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:38 am

Hanging out with my pops yesterday and he yells at me...."stop with that freakin weather bullshit. Look out the window and whatever comes you'll know then. The only job where people are paid to be wrong". And I'm 44 years old

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:48 am

Thank goodness for the coastal town s...I am not unhappy..there is a difference in wishing for a blizzard with 50 feet of snow(I know there are safety risks too) than a hurricane that destroys people s lives....it is great and frustrating for all that analyze....all of us that invested hours..you all tracking and others waited with baited breath to read the next post...but it will be interesting to me to see the analysis that I know you guys will do of what happened...there are a lot of great minds on this forum.....there will be many upset people who cut vacations short who will not listen the next time...hope you all get some rest and recharge for the next one

by **Radz** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:53 am

Satellite image seems to show a SE jog as it approaches 70W, maybe just a burp as the sun reflects off the cloud tops, or maybe the reins are finally taking hold...

by **Joe Snow** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:53 am

NWs says it will turn to the north, they increased the storm surge from 1-3 feet to 2-4 feet in the last up date at 6:00am, still calling for strong winds and lots of damage. WTF????

by **billg315** Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:58 am

I should have trusted my instincts. Wednesday night and Thursday on here I said I felt this would most likely go out to sea south of here with little impact. But the models were so persistent with it having some impact on NJ that I figured my gut was wrong. Now it looks like it may have been right. Which I'm glad for frankly as I don't like to see the destruction these tropical storms bring to people's lives. The only question left is will the storm push enough water back onshore for some flooding on the coast. I left Sea Isle yesterday only because of the threat of flooding in town. If they get no flooding that will have proven to be a stupid decision. Lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:00 am

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Studio_20160904_074545

Here is a look at 500mb heights at initialization of the GFS. The High is northwest of Hermine near the Lakes, she's very weak, and there is a positive NAO.. Eventually the ridge will build in from the east and trap Hermine, which is why she'll end up off the coast for a few days.

I think the biggest let down (for some people) is Hermine will remain very weak when guidance showed her intensifying again. Also, it's very clear the blocking pattern was not established quick enough which is why Hermine is sliding east at this time. By the time the block is established she will be too far east and a retrograde west won't be enough to cause major impacts.

This ended up working out for the Sandy riddled areas who couldn't afford another storm. If Herminea retrograde came to fruition there would have been trouble.

That said, forecasts are still showing a 4 foot surge along the NJ shore and 5 foot north of LI and CT. And that'd with the latest model runs. Do what you have to do to combat the surge if you live in that area. It's going to be like that for 2-3 days. Winds at Tropical Storm force are still on the table too. Rain will be very minimal.

No change to my forecast (click on scroll if you did not read it yesterday)

Hey, at least we can salvage most of this holiday weekend!! Have a good day.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_7

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_7

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:02 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:It would be great for analysis of what went wrong

Its actually pretty simple Skins. Bottom line is the lifting trough into the NW Atlantic pulled it too far east and therefore the timing of the system cutting itself off from the main westerly flow is too late. There will likely still be a north and maybe even a NW movement but it will be more of a meandering movement like the spinning of a top analogy I gave a few morning ago. This was never going to be a full "capture" and pull it hard left like Sandy was. The approaching trough in the west would have needed to phase with and go negative. There is simply no NAO blocking for that. The blocking that we have been talking about was simply a strong HP going up in the wake of the exiting s/w trough. It just didn't happen quick enough. This was the write up from the 30th and 31st. Again I think its as simple as it hasn't cut itself off from the the exiting trough and ended up being pulled topo far east as a result.

AUG 30th:
Jman and others...the OTS soln occurs because the trough that digs into the east and picks up TD 9 and turns it north into the big bend area of Fla

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Ots_eu15

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Ots_eu15

then carries it OTS in the progressive flow because the trough axis is positively tilted (SW to NE). The Euro shows this nicely.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Ots_eu14

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Ots_eu14

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Ots_eu13

The CMC on the other hand does not dig this trough as deep, is a little faster with the trough, and TD 9 comes off the SE coast further S relative to the euro, so the system as a whole misses the trough. Initially the trough digs deep enough to steer in N and NE but doesn't dig enough to fully capture it; so it lifts out leaving the system behind. The next trough coming in begins to tug at it back towards the coast.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Cmc10

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Cmc10

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Cmc_210

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Cmc_310

Like Snow mentions above there are ensemble members in both GFS and Euro camps to support this. We will have to se how the models trend over the next 48-72hrs regarding the timing and how deep the trough actually is. Very complex set up. The euro soln from the other day shows a trough split. Meaning the main energy with TD 9 gets pulled OTS with the main trough but a piece of it breaks off and hangs back along an old frontal boundary left behind then retrogrades back towards the SE coast with some tropical development possible. Nothing about 99L to TD 9 has been been routine, and none of the models have had a true handle on this wave consistently at all. Bottom line....

WE TRACK!!!

AUG31st
Hey Rb. Let me start by saying I prev thought and still believe that ultimately this will swing and miss most if not all of the NE, but a few points to be made. First is that the models have been in fair agreement, GFS, Euro operationals and their ensembles, that the main energy from TD 9 will be left behind at some point from the trough. I do believe that a retrograde towards the coast is def possible. Not however in a Sandy esque fashion where we get a phase with the trough and a full neg tilt etc, but rather IF, and its a big IF, the timing of the system with the trough is off it gets left behind cutoff from the main flow. Afterall it is a tropical system; not a run of the mill LP off the coast. Although the -NAO blocking is not present its actually the -PNA that sets this potential up. Here is the 500mb anomalies from the CMC showing my points:

First frame: Trough digging S of Aleutians building ridge into GOA consequently digging trough ito the west coast (-PNA) which argues for Ridging along the east coast. Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z514

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z514

Therefore the trough that digs into the EC tugging our little fiend TD 9 North has NO staying power; is progressive (as seen by extreme positive tilt) and so lifts up and out into the N Atlantic very quickly. See next fram below. In its wake HP will want to build; however there is a weakness that our system heads for left behind in between the Sub tropical ridge and the ridge over the N CONUS/E Canada

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z515

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z515

HOWEVER, The CMC soln from 24hrs ago the ridge builds in rapidly in the wake of the exiting trough and in front of the system effectively cutting it off from the main flow and trapping/blocking its exit.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z516

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z516

This is in fact in response to the -PNA establishing itself. Strong trough in the west ridge response in the east. Result is a system that gets turned back towards the coast in response to the approaching trough

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z517

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 25 Gem_z517

Now lets be clear here....TIMING IS EVERYTHING. TD 9 still would likely still need to slow down some from its current forecast in order to miss the trough and leave it close enough to the coast to have it retrograde enough to have an impact in the NE. That said, and I mentioned above, there is good agreement for now, that it will in fact be left behind and be cutoff from the main westerly's for a brief time until the next trough picks it up and officially takes it away into the N Atlantic. And there looks to be a gentle turn back N and/or NW as it feels the approaching trough before its swept away. Timing will be key here. Remember models have been doing a poor job overall beyond day 3 so take it all with a grain of salt and keep monitoring for trends.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Here is a look at 500mb heights at initialization of the GFS. The High is northwest of Hermine near the Lakes, she's very weak, and there is a positive NAO.. Eventually the ridge will build in from the east and trap Hermine, which is why she'll end up off the coast for a few days.

I think the biggest let down (for some people) is Hermine will remain very weak when guidance showed her intensifying again. Also, it's very clear the blocking pattern was not established quick enough which is why Hermine is sliding east at this time. By the time the block is established she will be too far east and a retrograde west won't be enough to cause major impacts.

This ended up working out for the Sandy riddled areas who couldn't afford another storm. If Herminea retrograde came to fruition there would have been trouble.

That said, forecasts are still showing a 4 foot surge along the NJ shore and 5 foot north of LI and CT. And that'd with the latest model runs. Do what you have to do to combat the surge if you live in that area. It's going to be like that for 2-3 days. Winds at Tropical Storm force are still on the table too. Rain will be very minimal.

No change to my forecast (click on scroll if you did not read it yesterday)

Hey, at least we can salvage most of this holiday weekend!! Have a good day.

Good morning..should have waited to read your post...so this is not far enough away to not do damage