Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[sroc4]

A GOOD READ WEENIES!! NYNJPA weather

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/

He stole my avatar!! WTF!!

[amugs]

AO to tank WOW - Isotherm and others are talking about the correlation between the AO in October and the mean for the winter - WOOP WOOP!!



AND.............this will help with teh snow growth!!! DOUBLE WOOP WOOP!!

[amugs]

Weak Nina

[frank 638]

i was watching lee golberg at 545 and he was talking about this winter here we go
first he did say we will have a weak la nina and we should see a pattern change soon to somewhat a wetter pattern and average temps from late oct to early nov
second most of our snow will will be average to maybe slightly above average with more mixing along the coast of nj long island and nyc with more snow north and west of the city
he will have another update when we get into nov

[algae888]

cmc gives us first snow threat with overrunning precip. gfs says nada to warm. like the set up though with the strong cold hp to our north on cmc. will take this look in winter. looks 2014ish

[jmanley32]

cmc gives us first snow threat with overrunning precip. gfs says nada to warm. like the set up though with the strong cold hp to our north on cmc. will take this look in winter. looks 2014ish

this is around the same time the euro showed the snow possibility that one run earlier this week. Hmmm.

[amugs]

Nice!!!

[amugs]

[amugs]

Euro weeklies - week 4  real good luck this far out

[amugs]

Sniffing out the white gold here. By turkey day the snow resorts could be rockin'

[algae888]

Frank scott rb mugs or iso. I' m hearing that the gefs has a pv split in the next 7 days. Unusually early.
My question is three fold: 1) is this likely 2) what does that mean for seansible weather here and 3) is this good for our winter season (cold/snow) or will it consolidate and get stronger for winter?

[amugs]

Al this does remain to be seen but from what another met has stated the last time was 1995 in early Nov and we flipped hard then. Again I am seeing the weakening g of the PV at various levels and IF we can get this to happen then we maybe rockin sooner than later. The lag is usually about 7- 10 days from a true split to mix down to our level of the atmosphere.

[algae888]

Al this does remain to be seen but from what another met has stated the last time was 1995 in early Nov and we flipped hard then. Again I am seeing the weakening g of the PV at various levels and IF we can get this to happen then we maybe rockin sooner than later. The lag is usually about 7- 10 days from a true split to mix down to our level of the atmosphere.

Tku mugs. I didn't no if the split will have the same effect as it does in winter, as a lot of the teleconnectors have different sensible weather for our area during the fall. If the split does happen then the euro weeklies might not be too far off as they show a switch in mid November. Also anything that resembles the fall of 1995 I'll take in a heartbeat. a repeat of 95/96. We can always hope.lol

[algae888]

this from dt...
all weak la-nina autumn/winters

WEAK LA NINA WINTERS in the    that  featured  Mod /strong El Nino Previous Winter that died off in the Spring 
  this  scenario  is more likely   ASSUMING  the  weak  La Nina  
1) stays weak   2)  last all winter long

[algae888]

dt continued ^^^
WEAK LA NINA  in the  AUTUMN   that died off  by the time  early/ mid DEC  
( I like this  scenario  best)    woof 
 

[amugs]

Nice work Al^^^^^^ woof woof to that Changed Ching baby!!

[algae888]

Al this does remain to be seen but from what another met has stated the last time was 1995 in early Nov and we flipped hard then. Again I am seeing the weakening g of the PV at various levels and IF we can get this to happen then we maybe rockin sooner than later. The lag is usually about 7- 10 days from a true split to mix down to our level of the atmosphere.

mugs euro now on board for split in 8 days at all levels except at 1HPa.

mugs i'm starting to believe the stat will be the main player this year. all other indices (pdo, qbo, enso,) are near neutral or heading near neutral, except strat she is perturbed.

[amugs]

Al holy mother  Cohen just tweeted an animation showing the PV splitting g, called this an unprecedented wear my her event of tis were to occur. Don't know how to post a gift on here but wow this is crazy, all 50 through 10 level split,  entire level of atmosphere.

[amugs]

[amugs]

HOLY EURO - Cohen hitting the horn on this. IF this is correct then we will see a flip sometime mid November - usually take like I said about 10 days for this to filter down and then maybe another few days for to to take hold in the east - this could lead to BN cold tempos IF again it happens. We shall see./



Oz adn 12 ZEuro harping on a 474 DM block over Greenland - jesus that would be like the block we saw with Sandy

[amugs]

QBO adn La Nina - Weak states and these are teh years that pop up as per Joe D



SE ridge is beaten back by the weak nina and westerly + QBO

[amugs]

As per Earthlight
Forecast models in the medium range are showing a significant multi-wave attack on the stratospheric vortex. This attack can be traced back to the low pv ingestion of hurricane nicole. The Kara Sea Ridge feedback process is adding to the pressure. We are likely to see high latitude blocking progress toward Greenland, the Davis Straight, and the North Pole in the next 14 days. A full stratospheric pv split to 50hPa is extremely unusual for this time of year, and it will be extremely intriguing to observe how the hemisphere responds and if this becomes at least a quasi-stationary pattern moving forward, or if the vortex restrengthens.

Forecast guidance is currently predicting that the 50hPa polar vortex will be the weakest in observed records by early November.

[amugs]

Look at the blocking over Greenland

[amugs]

This week into Halloween about N then we are AN for the 1st week of Nov and 4he we stray to transition to a N to possibly BN regime from about mid Nov to the end IF this pattern comes to fruition and the PV splits.

[Frank_Wx]

In my Mo Mo tomorrow I mention that November is likely to start off on the warmer side. As we head into the middle to end of the month hopefully we can transition into a colder pattern that would support snow events. This time of year we're still dealing with fluidity in the atmosphere.

[Frank_Wx]

The Stratosphere continues to amaze me. Very unique for this time of year. Still a little early to take any one factor too seriously, but we're looking at an abnormal PV heading into Meteorological winter.

[nutleyblizzard]

The Stratosphere continues to amaze me. Very unique for this time of year. Still a little early to take any one factor too seriously, but we're looking at an abnormal PV heading into Meteorological winter.

If this keeps up much longer with the unusual PV behavior, we may very well have a dominate -AO regime this winter. Yes it is a bit early to sound the alarms but the chances for a banner winter are starting to look more likely. We will know much more on our fate in the next month.

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