Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[frank 638]

Here we ago again back to warm mild boring Dec what ever happened to our Dec to rember I thought this Dec was so post to be cold and stormy.

[Snow88]

Many people called for a cold and snowy December

[algae888]

Many people called for a cold and snowy December

December still a week away. While early December looks like they'll be a lot of cutters anything past December 5th is still a crapshoot ann December can still end up cold and snowy. Patience.

[docstox12]

Very true, Al, but with this very warm October and very warm first half of November, I think that a total flip to cold and snowy did not seem right.Personally i was thinking the winter would be back end this year.Hope I'm wrong.Would be nice to see a White Christmas.

[algae888]

Very true, Al, but with this very warm October and very warm first half of November, I think that a total flip to cold and snowy did not seem right.Personally i was thinking the winter would be back end this year.Hope I'm wrong.Would be nice to see a White Christmas.

Doc with what the mid-range Guidance was showing and when I say mid-range the 30-day guidance we would have active and colder pattern with some snow chances the second half of November into December. So far this has worked well as the second half of November is well below normal and we've already had snow even down to the coast which is unusual for November. It was unfortunate that the polar vortex set up on the other side of the globe but to me that's fine as we're against climo right now. There are some good things happening, snow cover has increased in Canada and will be increasing in the west and Midwest the next 10 days. This will bring the baroClinic Zone closer to us ann the storm track should move further south in East as we progress in December. Aam is dropping and there are signs that the Pacific will change. Also there are no signs that we will be anywhere near last December 500 millibar setup as I said before we can work with plus one or two in December January or February and still hit average or above snowfall

[amugs]

EPO BN FOR US DURINE THIS 10 DAYS TIME FRAME




Latest jma maps look okay to good

[algae888]

Mean zonal winds point to a strengthening Strat PV to climo levels in early December. If this comes to fruition it could take our AO positive

Frank maybe the Strat pv is not going to strengthen like was forecast a few days ago.

[Frank_Wx]

The ensembles are showing a SWFE pattern setting up in the day 9 to 12 range. There's pretty good consensus. We'll see if the block east of the Hudson is enough to keep the gradient south of us. We don't want that ULL in SW CONUS to dig too much or the gradient will end up north of the city. Hopefully we capitalize with this pattern because beyond ain't looking so hot right now. Granted it's the LR so...

[Frank_Wx]

Mean zonal winds point to a strengthening Strat PV to climo levels in early December. If this comes to fruition it could take our AO positive

Frank maybe the Strat pv is not going to strengthen like was forecast a few days ago.

It looks like it'll stay weaker than normal for the time of year. Still pissed that we did not see a full SSWE though. It's ok, we should see one in early January.

[algae888]

there is is significant change in the pacific in the net 10 or so days...



I would expect colder for much of north America with that look. now lets see if we can get a favorable storm track.

that's some descent cold coming into the us eventually that will bleed east.

[amugs]

-pna is not a bad thing to a degree why?
From my research this time of year and couple of weeks could very bode well for us. it will lay of swath of snow in the Midwest and Canadian region that will when we get into winter Dec and beyond will help our cold pool of air.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like we'll see continued perturbation of the Strat PV from wave 1 events through early DEC. Also positive, mean zonal winds won't get as strong as initially anticipated by guidance. Strat PV still looks to remain weaker than normal from a Climo standpoint which should aide in SSWE taking place in January.



tmp_25182-NH_TMP_10mb_252247371006.gif

[amugs]

CFS showing this

[algae888]

I'm hearing the euro weeklies look fantastic beginning week 2. -2--3* with above normal precip. I'm hearing similar to December 2010. That December 20.1 inches of snow fell in the park.  get ready for the December to remember.

[algae888]

pv showing signs of moving to our side of the globe...

[sroc4]

pv showing signs of moving to our side of the globe...

Let's hope so Al. Unfort the next 10day strat forecast conts  to be status quo which means it will remain on the wrong side of the N hemi. . LR GFS strat forecast is encouraging, but it is as unreliable as the 500mb forecasts.  Already seeing signs of the -EPO forecast backing off some as we approach Dec.   I'm not saying there won't be any chances for frozen precip headed into Dec but if your anywhere near the coastal plain I wouldn't bet on it.  If not for the -AO and -NAO and a favorable MJO phases we may have seen temps like we did last year. LR MJO looks to potential loop back to phases 1/2 again but just like any other LR forecast its subject to change.  I hate being the Debbie downer but I am just not that excited about The LR at the moment.

[sroc4]

CFS showing this

And as nice as this looks the CFS showed this on the very next model run for December:




All I'm trying to say is to temper expectations but remain cautiously optimistic.

[Frank_Wx]

Mean zonal winds point to a strengthening Strat PV to climo levels in early December. If this comes to fruition it could take our AO positive

Frank maybe the Strat pv is not going to strengthen like was forecast a few days ago.

It looks like it'll stay weaker than normal for the time of year. Still pissed that we did not see a full SSWE though. It's ok, we should see one in early January.

Now look at it. Awful.

[jmanley32]

Happy post turkey day to all, Frank if what sroc says is true, temps like last year stick to your plan and just shut the forum down, too depressing to even think like that. Seems these LR models really have no clue whats going to happen, which is interesting to me is why do we have them then?

[sroc4]

Mean zonal winds point to a strengthening Strat PV to climo levels in early December. If this comes to fruition it could take our AO positive

Frank maybe the Strat pv is not going to strengthen like was forecast a few days ago.

It looks like it'll stay weaker than normal for the time of year. Still pissed that we did not see a full SSWE though. It's ok, we should see one in early January.

Now look at it. Awful.

Ewwww.

[Frank_Wx]

The issue is I was hedging my bets on a SSWE coming to fruition given the signals in place around the time I released my winter outlook. Since mean zonal winds are no longer forecasted to reverse in the Stratosphere, a SSWE will not happen and may not happen until January. This means the active PAC jet due to strong High Pressure systems near the Himalayas, in addition to, an unfavorable MJO and La Nina forcing, will keep the PNA negative for the forseeable future. The AO and NAO will also be trending positive in the coming days.

There will be cold spells in early December. The source of the cold will come from the west so it will be modified a bit by the time it gets here. A storm timed correctly could get us snow, but if the pattern will continue with a -PNA then I don't expect storm tracks to favor our area.

We'll have to hope for some luck.

[Isotherm]

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[Isotherm]

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[algae888]

Euro op looks mighty cold to start December. Also nice cross polar flow setting up at the end of The Run. -15-20 850 departures 4 Western half of Canada and Northwest us. Looks like a nice negative EPO. If true could be fun times heading into mid-December

[Snow88]

December looks like a fun month

[Frank_Wx]

One reason why the upper level jet stream along the North Pacific Current may be running stronger than normal is due to the SSTA gradient caused by the anomalous cold / warm pools of water in that area. This gradient could be providing a feedback loop into the atmosphere to enhance the PAC jet.





200mb winds for November so far. Very active PAC jet.

[sroc4]

Frank. I did a mini write up on this a week or so ago discussing this very same thing. Couldn't agree more.

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