Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

As the saying goes it's always darkest before the dawn. Here's to a glimmer of hope that yesterday was was that time and today is the dawn.

13 straight days of a solid snow cover here so I shouldn't be complaining but already foreseeing losing it by Wednesday a Thursday snowfall would be a Gods send.

[Guest]

This storm threat for Thursday does not make sense meteorologically IMO. The cutter on Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by strong NW winds gusting into Thursday at over 40mph. HOW THEN CAN A STORM RIDE UP THE COAST WHEN EVERYTHING IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FIGHTING AGAINST ITS MOVEMENT AND PUSHING IT OTS? doesn't jive for me. Zero confidence in this one for me. I know we are all frustrated and hoping but let's be realistic.

[Snow88]

This storm threat for Thursday does not make sense meteorologically IMO. The cutter on Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by strong NW winds gusting into Thursday at over 40mph. HOW THEN CAN A STORM RIDE UP THE COAST WHEN EVERYTHING IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FIGHTING AGAINST ITS MOVEMENT AND PUSHING IT OTS?  doesn't jive for me. Zero confidence in this one for me.   I know we are all frustrated and hoping but let's be realistic.

We had the same thing last year. A wave running the trough. 100 percent possible. Lets be realistic.

[Snow88]

Also, AO and PNA look great this morning moving forward. PNA will be rising and AO is going downhill.

[Snow88]

MJO still looks very solid into 8 on all the models. The models might be adjusting to the MJO.

[skinsfan1177]

Love we have this to track with in 120 hours.

[skinsfan1177]

Also, AO and PNA look great this morning moving forward. PNA will be rising and AO is going downhill.

Great points snow

[skinsfan1177]

This storm threat for Thursday does not make sense meteorologically IMO. The cutter on Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by strong NW winds gusting into Thursday at over 40mph. HOW THEN CAN A STORM RIDE UP THE COAST WHEN EVERYTHING IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FIGHTING AGAINST ITS MOVEMENT AND PUSHING IT OTS?  doesn't jive for me. Zero confidence in this one for me.   I know we are all frustrated and hoping but let's be realistic.

Cutter is backing off now on the models giving spacing between them.

[Snow88]

Models are weakening the lakes cutter for Tuesday. This might be the reason why the follow up wave is coming back on the models. Here is the Nam at 60 hours. Nice snow event for CNE northward.
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/nam/current/06z/NAM_MSLPThickQPF_na_f60.png

[algae888]

What we want to look for is the first low to be as weak as possible this will allow for the Second Law to come up the coast has the push of cold air would not get as far south as previously modeled. That has been the trend the last 24 hours from a 970 low to a 980 low. Actually it's been a trend the whole winter as I mentioned last week I expected this low to come in weaker

[Guest]

Snow88. I hope I'm wrong and maybe my pessimism is a defense mechanism to not get disappointed but......."let's be realistic" is probably the worst thing you could have said for this winter because a miss is realistic based on what has happened probably even likely

GOD I HOPE IM WRONG

[sroc4]

This storm threat for Thursday does not make sense meteorologically IMO. The cutter on Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by strong NW winds gusting into Thursday at over 40mph. HOW THEN CAN A STORM RIDE UP THE COAST WHEN EVERYTHING IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FIGHTING AGAINST ITS MOVEMENT AND PUSHING IT OTS?  doesn't jive for me. Zero confidence in this one for me.   I know we are all frustrated and hoping but let's be realistic.

Jimmy the NW winds after the cutter moves into SE Canada will have zero to do with whether or not this other system develops. It's all about the interactions at 18,000ft or 500mb. No one get too excited just yet. If the chance hold by this time tomorrow then it's time to zero in on the details.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Snow88. I hope I'm wrong and maybe my pessimism is a defense mechanism to not get disappointed but......."let's be realistic" is probably the worst thing you could have said for this winter because a miss is realistic based on what has happened probably even likely

GOD I HOPE IM WRONG

If you are wrong I feel there should be some type of penalty for rainmongering and torchmongering, as a mental health specialist you should know we all need hope, hope is a good thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K30e9O3Nng

[Guest]

Ok Scott I'll trust you on this one paean. Here's to hoping! On a separate note I was out by you on Thursday small game hunting. Rocky Point and Calverton. Haven't been in a few years. What a change and NOT for the better

[sroc4]

Ok Scott I'll trust you on this one paean. Here's to hoping!  On a separate note I was out by you on Thursday small game hunting. Rocky Point and Calverton. Haven't been in a few years. What a change and NOT for the better

You said it Jim. Def built up out here. And not slowing down.

[Guest]

By the way. It was 7 degrees colder in Ridge than the surrounding towns!!

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS splits the 10mb Strat PV by Day 10. If true, end of FEB into March could be colder and stormier than normal.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS splits the 10mb Strat PV by Day 10. If true, end of FEB into March could be colder and stormier than normal.

Madonne

[weatherwatchermom]

The 12z GFS splits the 10mb Strat PV by Day 10. If true, end of FEB into March could be colder and stormier than normal.

from your mouth to the weather gods ears!!!

[Frank_Wx]

The MJO forcing is very impressive. Not only do the GEFS take it into phase 8, but the amplitude is strong.

[amugs]

Frank this is the exact timeframe IsoTherm (In God We Trust for his expertise with such) said it woudl happen and that from that time frame through March (when is to be determined) we would have cold and possible storm chances.
Time will tell.

MJO projected going into very strong Phase 8 that woudl be a driver to the pattern. We have to see what the models show for the heights in teh tahiti to Darwin region and Eastern Indian Ocean. IF the pressures stay high then we could be rocking. Still need the sun to help out and calm the heck down after the last two week post spike adn coronal hole explosion!

[Isotherm]

The w2 splitting is legitimate and not merely model fantasy in my opinion. If it occurs, the resultant tropospheric effects would be fairly instantaneous due to the nature and origin of the assault, as well as preset conditions. The w1 displacement has yielded a very vulnerable vortex.

 

The only divergence I see is that the ECMWF continues propagating a coherent MJO through P1, but the GFS now seems to be backing off on the forward progression. I think it's likely attempting to kill the wave too quickly. I tend to lean toward the ECM based guidance due to the fact that I am not seeing anything which would necessarily preclude the maintenance of a coherent wave. Even with the MJO, the GFS is still splitting the 10hpa which is good news because it indicates the forcing will be sufficiently potent regardless.





 https://i.servimg.com/u/f37/18/98/60/93/ecmf_p10.gif

[algae888]

it looks like gefs lose the heat and now look more like a mjo 8/1 as isotherm and others have been saying. winter out with a bang?

new

when most jumped off the cliff.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm not getting my hopes up about the LR until the models see the phase 8 MJO....ensembles don't look that great in the LR. The GFS has a SSWE by Day 9, while the EURO OP does not. Huge differences.

[Isotherm]

Below the 10hpa level, the ECMWF does have a split precursor appearance by the 15th. It could simply be a timing difference with the euro slower. But it is incontrovertible that the precursor pattern is strikingly w2, so I would expect the 10hpa level to acquire more of that appearance. It is possible euro / slower may be correct as MJO forcing likely won't peak until 15-18th on the vortex. We shall see. Interesting strat tracking ahead.

[dkodgis]

Does anyone want to take a crack at what ice if any we will have for tomorrow (I am just above I-84)?

[algae888]

WOW!!! at the 18z -nao block. storms just sit and rotate in circles for days...

[Sponsored content]