Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[dkodgis]

Does anyone want to take a crack at what ice if any we will have for tomorrow (I am just above I-84)?

[algae888]

WOW!!! at the 18z -nao block. storms just sit and rotate in circles for days...

[algae888]

eps...

I think models starting to catch on to mjo phase 8/1 and strat split. fun times ahead..

[algae888]

surprised now one talking about the lr. we have a legit -nao pattern unfoldind in the next 7+ days. I know models showed this a few times this winter but not with the amped phase8/1 mjo and strat weakening/split that is forecast in the next week ..
gefs..

[amugs]

Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W

[algae888]

Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W

yes mugs and you can add the euro weeklies that just came out. best pattern in more than five years. big block and active stj. winter ends with a bang. watch the 16-19 period with that cutoff over the s/w. even though weeklies have been bad this year I think this run will be correct as to many factors are lining up just right. isotherm has been spot on this winter I am really impressed.

[amugs]

Al and we have 3 vorts to watch out for in the LR - This weekend, Next Tuesday and again Thursday time frames. Tom has been caling the mid month storm since mid Feb!!!! ISOTHERM BRING IT HOME ME PAISAN!!



SO much for the Cliff jumping we all were doing the last 4 out of 5 days !!

OH AND JIM WITT FOR THE WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!

CALENDAR 3 YEARS OUT CALLING FOR the 8-9th and 22-24th time frame!!
HE IS GENIUS WITH BIG STORMS!!!!

[amugs]

Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W

yes mugs and you can add the euro weeklies that just came out. best pattern in more than five years. big block and active stj. winter ends with a bang. watch the 16-19 period with that cutoff over the s/w. even though weeklies have been bad this year I think this run will be correct as to many factors are lining up just right.  isotherm has been spot on this winter I am really impressed.

I hate those fn weeklies - they sucked this winter - if they EVER verified I'd have a N NAO/EPO and AO?NAO in the means for DEC and JAN - nothing at you AL but you know what I mean here.
This is all due to the very strong phase 8 of the MJO and PV action !!





Can we go 1 through 2 - NOW that woudl be save this whole winter IF it can

[amugs]

Tom is amazing - been following for three years and asked him to join here and thank god he did. When he speaks we listen and get out the dictionary to figure out what the hell he is saying - speaks at a doctorate level sometimes - jeez!!

The heights are responding tremendously in the High Latitude domain here in teh LR - hope this keeps improving:



BTW JIM WITT saying his late Feb time frame could rival the first PD storm at this point and has been saying this for some time COULD is teh key word but loves this time frame!

[Snow88]

Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.

[amugs]

Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.

Tony u joking right? Maybe not u but 2/3 of the boards were ready to jump!

[Snow88]

Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.

Tony u joking right? Maybe not u but 2/3 of the boards were ready to jump!

I know

Everyone on the internet was jumping

[algae888]

we have to watch the time period I mentioned yesterday for a possible big coastal.....



cut-off low over the s/w picked up and phased with trough (n/s energy). fun times ahead...

[algae888]

mt hooly agrees with previous posts...
500 MB: A strengthening short wave will cross the mid Atlantic
states Thursday, then strong height rises follow over the
weekend (strong westerly flow), then northern stream short waves
from Canada begin carving out a cold trough in eastern Canada
early next week. A fly in the ointment early next week will be a
leftover low over the desert southwest that may yet interact
play a role in our weather early next week.

[Frank_Wx]

Long range is beginning to show the affects of the MJO and Stratosphere. Very cold and stormy post the 15th.

[SENJsnowman]

YSCI jumps 75% in one day-- a new record!

(Edit:  Dammit! I meant to post this in Banter!
Small phone screen + Old eyes = Fail!)

[Armando Salvadore]

Ensembles are definitely catching onto the SSW progression and the MJO propagation, so this coherent wave structure appears it may do more than just change the pattern and overwhelm those thoughts of zonal flow. It appears the 200 CHI of the west pacific will alter and there is your weakening walker cell as we approach mid Feb into March. Interestingly enough, it appears we see a jet extension mid month, however, does this extension lead to a split flow with an active STJ and a progression of an anticyclone into the PNA/EPO regions? Sure bet it looks like it. Very interesting period showing up for mid month!

[Frank_Wx]

YSCI jumps 75% in one day-- a new record!

(Edit:  Dammit! I meant to post this in Banter!
Small phone screen + Old eyes = Fail!)

No worries

[Frank_Wx]

I added an event to the SCI. February 11th. Could be some WAA snow that drops an inch or 2 on Saturday.

[Frank_Wx]

The LR GFS shows 4 additional storm events. Big February possible

[billg315]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

[sroc4]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

Not all of us were griping

[billg315]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

Not all of us were griping  

Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.

[sroc4]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

Not all of us were griping  

Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.

Dont forget Iso...

[billg315]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

Not all of us were griping  

Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.

Dont forget Iso...

Absolutely, Iso as well. There were a few stalwarts on that front. Sometimes I laugh when I hear some of the pessimism and "winter is over" comments because they do amuse me mostly because you can see them coming and history tends to repeat itself. But, I have the luxury of just hanging back. I feel the pain of those who as administrators and forecasters on this site have an obligation to offer an alternative view or counterpoint to those thoughts with data and analysis. Perhaps I should have your back more often than I do in those discussions. But trust me, you are not alone when fighting the good fight.

[algae888]

Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.

Not all of us were griping  

Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.

Dont forget Iso...

Scott me too. Never gave up esp with iso strat and mjo pulse to 8. Was a bit frustrating late last week but hung in there. Bill you can add mugs to that list too! Just kidding mugs. Anyway Bill and Scott, maybe our new leader should be Punxsutawney Phil.lol

[billg315]

Hahaha. Yes, I could add a few people to the list. And yes, the groundhog issued his decree on Thursday and the Weather Gods are about to deliver.

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