Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[skinsfan1177]

Tropical storm Harvey is strengthening fast may be hurricane by 11 am update

[Sanchize06]

Tropical storm Harvey is strengthening fast may be hurricane by 11 am update

Yeah, can't imagine this storm is only at 85 mph at landfall like NHC has it. Could be well over 100 mph

[frank 638]

I am also hearing  Harvey is going to slam parts of Texas with 25 inches of rain

[Snow88]

CMC is a dangerous situation for the east coast but it's only 1 model although the Euro was very close also with the trough building in.

[sroc4]

Harvey is spinning up incredibly fast right now. Real time satellite looks really impressive. I would be willing to bet at least Cat 2 by landfall. And like a few of us have been stating for a few days now 92L still needs to be watched very closely. The idea of the current trough exiting before capturing 92L/ Irma cutting it off from the mean flow then being steered further north that prev modeled is beginning to gain traction. Remember Harvey's ultimate intensity and interactions with the next trough digging into the Midwest as well as current timing of current trough over NE will be important for Irma/92L. Don't go anywhere folks.

[amugs]

NHC enacted its first surge warning of the season - those barrier island are going to become part of the gulf!!

[jmanley32]

Harvey is spinning up incredibly fast right now. Real time satellite looks really impressive. I would be willing to bet at least Cat 2 by landfall. And like a few of us have been stating for a few days now 92L still needs to be watched very closely. The idea of the current trough exiting before capturing 92L/ Irma cutting it off from the mean flow then being steered further north that prev modeled is beginning to gain traction. Remember Harvey's ultimate intensity and interactions with the next trough digging into the Midwest as well as current timing of current trough over NE will be important for Irma/92L. Don't go anywhere folks.

Wow well I woke to some action I said it last nit that harvey was gonna be much stronger than expected.  92L does have a dead on alleyway there but isnt that a bit thread the needle?  I am def learning more about the tropics with you guys.  92L has been upped to 30% in 5 day but they still feel it will be going NE in the next day or two ots,  but they change their minds on a dime so we will see.  What do you think of the CMC, it lost it for a day noew came back with a vengence.

[jmanley32]

So if Harvey is stronger the more chances are possible Irma would stay closer in? We can see that harvey is def go be stronger.

[skinsfan1177]

So if Harvey is stronger the more chances are possible Irma would stay closer in? We can see that harvey is def go be stronger.

Irs all about strength and timing

[jmanley32]

Per 11am NHC: ...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...


This will def effect what happens with 92L

[jmanley32]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-82.58,21.16,1500/loc=-105.146,22.447

wow....gfs had a 939mb system at 06z, im not doubting that now.

[amugs]

Storm surge

[amugs]

[amugs]

GEFS LOOPY LOOP HOLY POOP!! 

[amugs]

JB on Irma

[Sanchize06]

[Sanchize06]

Heights along east coast definitely higher this run on the GFS, 92L should come further north and closer to the coast than previous runs...well had it developed it most likely would have been

[rb924119]

GFS is a strung out mess with 92L. Nothing to see there lol

[rb924119]

00z mugsy ahaha

Oh poop wrong map. I shall delete it.

[amugs]

WHOOAAAA GFS on Harvey:

[rb924119]

12z CMC going be BAD IMO worse than 00z

[Sanchize06]

Moving north toward Hatteras...

[Sanchize06]

12z CMC going be BAD IMO worse than 00z

Yeah, it doesn't seem to be as strong so quickly, could allow it to get further north than North Carolina before turning in

[Sanchize06]

CMC stays offshore the whole time, but very close

[rb924119]

The difference that run on the CMC, you all ready for this? About a 100-mile change in the trough axis orientation from last to today. Insanity.

[jmanley32]

Rb why the big change in gfs? Funny cmc is weak on Harvey doesn't even initialize at right intensity but explodes Irma. Gfs opposite. This run anyways.

[amugs]

Recon saying Hcane baby this bad boy is rapidly intensifying, a scary sitch for teh texas peeps along the coast!

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