Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:53 pm

Rb why the big change in gfs? Funny cmc is weak on Harvey doesn't even initialize at right intensity but explodes Irma. Gfs opposite. This run anyways.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:12 pm

Recon saying Hcane baby this bad boy is rapidly intensifying, a scary sitch for teh texas peeps along the coast!
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 DIAnC0MXkAAppg1

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 DIAnC0MXkAAppg1

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:13 pm

Streak of No Major Hcane hitting US is going down peeps look at his swirl!

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:24 pm

amugs wrote:Streak of No Major Hcane hitting US is going down peeps look at his swirl!

Hot damn, A eye in less than 12 hrs, 80mph winds prolly higher, this may go cat 4! Wonder if models are being too weak with 92 also, harvey just like gert and franklin were not modeled to be so strong.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:21 pm

Recon up to 83 plus Knots
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 DIAxe7SXcAAd1-N

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:03 pm

Jeeze. The models not handling intensity well. Gfs did decent past 2 days. Euro not enthused about a ec storm

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:07 pm

Nhc chances are up to 40% now if the intensity f models is right if Irma forms will likely be stronger than shown. Jb map is interesting if takes middle too far left off track and it's strong we screwed

by **rb924119** Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:48 pm

Still a clustering of EURO Ensemble members that support CMC camp. We have not yet seen the final solution for this event. Big differences between the models in how the trough interacts with and "chooses" which system it's attracted to as it dives into the eastern CONUS. VERY INTERESTING.

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:19 pm

When will we know best guess? This was supposed happen by now is it go keep push another 10 days and end up get n Oct sometime?

by **rb924119** Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:When will we know best guess? This was supposed happen by now is it go keep push another 10 days and end up get n Oct sometime?

When it's happening (or not) AhahAha sorry, but I couldn't help myself lolololol uh, well, I'm convinced Irma is named within 72 hours (basically it gets a name this weekend) and is near if not a Cat 1 Sunday night/Monday morning while very near or over Hatteras. If we don't know by then well then, if nothing else, it proves how inferior our technology still is lmao

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:32 pm

wow just heard Harvey could dump 38 inches on Texas....that was the Euro ....

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:42 pm

https://imgur.com/a/Fv61g#6XoL6gC

saw this on another site I was peeking at...look at that lightning...

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:46 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://imgur.com/a/Fv61g#6XoL6gC

saw this on another site I was peeking at...look at that lightning...

That is awesome, we are starting to see the eyewall replacement which signals intensification and it is going to crawl allowing this beast to rapidly intensify, 29mb drop in 24 hours very impressive!

Disastrous flooding!

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:00 pm

Rb oh really develop that soon and chances are only at 40 for 120 hrs.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:57 pm

WHOA !!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 DICXzfMVoAAOI6m

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:58 pm

HEY ON MODEL ???? THIS IS A CAT 5 910 MB - NOT happening.
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 DICYnfyUIAEJ-fa

by **Joe Snow** Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:34 pm

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-0

Watching minute by minute

by **Snow88** Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:46 pm

Anyone have good cams from south Texas?

by **Snow88** Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:47 pm

0z Nam is slower with 92L compared to 18z. The slower the better for the storm to ride the coast since the trough is coming down.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:52 pm

HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE.

by **amugs** Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:02 pm

Latest NHC

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 Img_2046

by **dkodgis** Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:55 pm

Yes, Ginger Zee on ABC News tonight said 36 inches is going to be a reality for rain, and the storm will continue into early next week with some areas uninhabitable for weeks or months. Pray for Texas.

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:56 pm

That's nuts they had to add a new color bar to rainfall bc it's go be so bad wow. 92 is coming into range on nam. It does def become Irma slveit weak still got a ways to go. And in fact I don't think it's even designated 92 anymore.

Rb yes I know it may not effect us I meant when night we know or not. Ur answer was good.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:43 am

CMC came west from 12z, a cat 1 pretty much effecting us all, worst from CT to cape cod. GFS still a strung out mess, who will win the fight, CMC is not modeling Harvey right though, which is interesting. Will have to continue to wait and see, but CMC was quite the hit.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 Gem_ms11

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 15 Gem_ms11

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:44 am

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:58 am

Harvey Cat 2! 105mph winds 967mb holy cow.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:41 am

Euro came ALOT closer to the area than the 12z, and a bit stronger, it really blows up into a strong storm as it passes north/east this looks like rb's and sroc idea may be really looking like a possibility. Id watch out for a POSSIBLE tropical system next week IMO. What do you guys think or still way to early to tell?

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