Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

UKMET ticked east ever so slightly, 12z GFS Ensemble holds serve

[weatherwatchermom]

I know one thing I'm taking this threat pretty seriously living on the Jersey Shore I see what these winds can do and how rough the ocean can get

Ocean and winds are wild now.....dangerous to no swimming conditions..I'm in seaside park, how is it in PP?

Janet it is blowing hard here now too...and I can see the bay is rough

[jmanley32]

Looks like euro may be a tad north maybe a bit west too but hard to tell with only the 24 hr skip maps.

[rb924119]

Looks like euro may be a tad north maybe a bit west too but hard to tell with only the 24 hr skip maps.

It's about status quo Jman, just checked. Chases the convection with the low, though, which is why it looks a little odd.

[jmanley32]

Wait how is it not Irma with now 35kt or 40mph winds?  So they arent counting winds now only closed low?  NHC def keeping it weak per 2pm.

[jmanley32]

Looks like euro may be a tad north maybe a bit west too but hard to tell with only the 24 hr skip maps.

It's about status quo Jman, just checked. Chases the convection with the low, though, which is why it looks a little odd.

Saw that, saw that over winter a lot convective feedback right?  Moving north now, I guess the further north she ets and not east will get her closer?

[rb924119]

Wait how is it not Irma with now 35kt or 40mph winds?  So they arent counting winds now only closed low?  NHC def keeping it weak per 2pm.

I don't even know what they do anymore, to be completely honest lol probably just to anger me aha

[rb924119]

Looks like euro may be a tad north maybe a bit west too but hard to tell with only the 24 hr skip maps.

It's about status quo Jman, just checked. Chases the convection with the low, though, which is why it looks a little odd.

Saw that, saw that over winter a lot convective feedback right?  Moving north now, I guess the further north she ets and not east will get her closer?

It could be, I didn't look at the mid-levels to see. And pretty much haha

[sroc4]

Harvey's center of circulation is back over water. It will likely re intensify some wind wise over the next 24 hrs.  But more importantly reorganize the banding which will cont to batter those poor people. You can see the convection flare up around the center toward the end of the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

[rb924119]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

[jmanley32]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

[algae888]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

yes guys. that's what I've been saying. I know the weather is boring but we are beating a dead horse.

[jmanley32]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

yes guys. that's what I've been saying. I know the weather is boring but we are beating a dead horse.

Al, sorry for get annoyed with ya other day was cranky bout st else and the fact that as u said the weather has been downright boring. LOL, onto the next as i see there are many that will develop sooner than later, and I agree tropics tracing takes wayyyy tooo long.  Bring on noreasters and winter storms.

[rb924119]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

You can't quit!!!! This is like our preseason for winter AhahAha we better coached than to just quit!!!

[jmanley32]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

You can't quit!!!! This is like our preseason for winter AhahAha we better coached than to just quit!!!

Okay I won't quit but I am not thinking its go be much of anything, Al has valid reasons for his ideas. your going to be either close to right or right from what I see, since you gave two senarios so ur a win win!!

[algae888]

NAM about 50-75 miles southeast versus 12z lol is what it is now, basically time to sit back and watch aha

of course it is, lol forget this storm im done. not even named yet and going to be out of here in 24-36 hrs.

yes guys. that's what I've been saying. I know the weather is boring but we are beating a dead horse.

Al, sorry for get annoyed with ya other day was cranky bout st else and the fact that as u said the weather has been downright boring. LOL, onto the next as i see there are many that will develop sooner than later, and I agree tropics tracing takes wayyyy tooo long.  Bring on noreasters and winter storms.

np jon. you have to remember that it is very unlikely for us to get a direct hit with hurricanes. I mean how many have we had since they have kept records. weather is all about probabilities. we probably ave. one hurricane every 8 to 10 years here and more than likely weak ones sans sandy. so we start behind the eight ball so to speak and have to have everything go right (wrong) for one to impact us. anywho prime season for canes quickly approaching as is our winter season.

[algae888]

guys that's enough of the political stuff. take to banter. tku

[jmanley32]

rb, you think the track is pretty much a lock now? Well far south and east after cape hatteras and most models are over or east of there so I think its prolly a done deal but we will see very shortly.

[rb924119]

rb, you think the track is pretty much a lock now? Well far south and east after cape hatteras and most models are over or east of there so I think its prolly a done deal but we will see very shortly.

Given the inconsistencies still? No, not particularly haha time to start nowcasting pretty much. If it winds up entirely west of Hatteras I think it follows my actual track. If over or East of Hatteras, it follows option two and I bust.

[rb924119]

Like I said, RGEM coming in HOT and further north lmao

[amugs]

Like I said, RGEM coming in HOT and further north lmao

[jmanley32]

Looks about the same, I do not think it makes it far enough north to give us up here in coastal NY much if anything though rgem does show an inch of rain. prolly some minor gusty winds, yawn lol.  NHC also slowly lowering chances, one more drop its back to medium, it was 90% dropped to 80% now 70%.

[jmanley32]

18z gfs FWIW is further NW and well inland of hatteras.

[Guest]

I've been lurking. Guys enough!!! 15 pages of thread for some showers and slight breeze. A 10 minute thunderstorm is more of an event than Irma will be.

[devsman]

Something tells me that we will have something before September is up. Just a gut feeling but hopefully nothing like Harvey.maybe more like a Gloria. That was a fun one.

[amugs]

I've been lurking.  Guys enough!!!  15 pages of thread for some showers and slight breeze.  A 10 minute thunderstorm is more of an event than Irma will be.  

Syo has awoken! Listen if you dont want to follow this no problem, go back to your den and hibetnate till.late Rocktober! Enjoy your sleep 

[amugs]

Something tells me that we will have something before September is up. Just a gut feeling but hopefully nothing like Harvey.maybe more like a Gloria. That was a fun one.

I agree euro and EPS are hinting at it big time and pattern is there. Let's see what happens.

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