Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

[jmanley32]

With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

with the way the name has done I'd be willing to bet on it to a degree more than the lr.

[rb924119]

With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

with the way the name has done I'd be willing to bet on it to a degree more than the lr.

I'd agree with that, but I'm also biased because it supports my idea ahaha

[jmanley32]

With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

with the way the name has done I'd be willing to bet on it to a degree more than the lr.

I'd agree with that, but I'm also biased because it supports my idea ahaha

well at least ur idea has model support.

[Snow88]

TWC has great coverage on Harvey

They are saying how the Houston and the areas around Houston will get hit hard throughout the entire day from the bands coming from the ocean. They also think that the 30 inch rain amounts that some of the models are spitting out might be too low.

[Snow88]

0z Euro and 6z GFS develop a tropical low moving forward. Looks like the wave train is not going to stop.

[sroc4]

Don't look now 12z GFS

[aiannone]

Don't look now 12z GFS

Big improvement from 12z yesterday though. Much more organized, north and west!

[jmanley32]

Well looking gfs and cmc. May have start preparing.

[Sanchize06]

GFS



CMC... Brings heavy bands of rain and tropical storm force winds to the Jersey Shore

[Sanchize06]

[jmanley32]

Yep def trends west. If intensity is under modeled could be bad. So when do we estimate Irma might develop?

[jmanley32]

Euro is ots and nam looks to be headed off obx ots if extrapolated out. Wait wait wait lol.

[algae888]

Well looking gfs and cmc. May have start preparing.

Prepare!!! For what? Both the Euro and GFS are a complete miss and the CMC is a flip-flopper which barely scrapes the coast. Can't prepare for a phantom system. Anyway the first question we should ask is will this system be tropical in nature? It's forming along a stalled out cold front so it will not be a warm core system. then the next question becomes how strong does it get. Remember we are accustomed to nor'-easters up here with 30 40 mile an hour winds and heavy rain/ snow.

[jmanley32]

Ok chill Al NVM. You all have very different views on the possibilities. Have you read rb senario? Srocs? I'm just go watch and see what happens. I will give u that u were right about Gert.

[rb924119]

18z GFS Ensembles further northwest again by another 100 miles.........trend is my friend? Lol

[jmanley32]

18z GFS Ensembles further northwest again by another 100 miles.........trend is my friend? Lol

according to some nothing to worry abput. Shouldn't it be Irma by now?

[rb924119]

Let it get over water, Jman, yeesh lmaoooo patience, young grasshopper. I think it's named at the 11pm update tomorrow night. I said I think it's a named system this weekend based on my initial thoughts, which have gained support over the last couple of days, so I'm not changing them. If it isn't named by then, it will be DARN close, and I'll guaran-damn-tee you that lol

[rb924119]

Cyclonically shaped shoreline, boiling warm SSTs, strongly enhanced pressure gradient; OH YES IT'S GONNA POP. Gert redux. Models are too slow with it developing. You watch. What I'm trying to figure out is why does the trough flatten out all of a sudden? That's got me puzzled. In theory, once that ridge comes over the top it should tilt it negative and ball it up, like a typical cutoff low; not elongate. UNLESS, and Al may be onto something, it DOES remain cold-core. THAT would explain it. But if not, like I believe, the little heat engine that could (in my my mind, WILL lol) then that trough should sharpen, tilt, and attempt to close off.

[EnyapWeather]

The question is, will it affect our area? (If it becomes what you guys think it will become)

[jmanley32]

Little grasshopper lol I'm 10 yes older than u lol. No I'm just confused cuz that would mean it's go bomb pretty quick even if it doesn't intensify alot. Do u think a landfall over the area is possible or does it stay far enough east?

[rb924119]

The question is, will it affect our area? (If it becomes what you guys think it will become)

Speaking for only myself; yes.

[rb924119]

Little grasshopper lol I'm 10 yes older than u lol. No I'm just confused cuz that would mean it's go bomb pretty quick even if it doesn't intensify alot. Do u think a landfall over the area is possible or does it stay far enough east?

Ahahahahaha we're all little kids at heart, though and not necessarily bomb out, but organize and develop; absolutely. A direct landfall, like Sandy did; no. That type of track will not happen. A track like an Irene or Floyd is certainly still on the table, though, where it just follows the coastline, or is a hair offshore but still comes due north. That said, I absolutely also think significant impacts/disruptions are still on the table. I am in no way letting this go yet. Let's get the circulation defined first and the trough over the CONUS, and THEN I'll let it go (if need be). Until then, if my thoughts are correct, then we should continue to see a northward and westward correction. Again, remember the globals, aside from the CMC, were out to lunch until Gert was pretty much becoming a hurricane (Franklin and Emily too, well storm). They didn't catch on until they were initializing that data. Those tracks were also a lot less intricate than this one is. Subtle details will mean dramatic differences, and I'm not letting myself get caught in the windshield wipers. If I'm gonna be wrong, I'll be wrong ONCE lmao

[jmanley32]

on no i know it wasnt go be a retrograde. id take a irene like storm. reel her in rb! and it is the "i" storm irene, irma hmmm.

[Dunnzoo]

on no i know it wasnt go be a retrograde. id take a irene like storm. reel her in rb! and it is the "i" storm irene, irma hmmm.

We do not need another Irene! I was down the shore and had to evacute Seaside Park. Was under a tornado watch inland all night and didn't sleep at all. Flooding was insane in central NJ and NE. Here is hoping it goes wayyyy ots. I am down here for another week and don't want to have to worry about it.

[Sanchize06]

Interesting NAM run so far. Irma definitely better organized, bringing lots of rain to NC and VA. Also has Harvey back over the water re-strengthening.

[Sanchize06]

Definitely more NW, but heads ENE OTS from here

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