Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **RJB8525** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:14 pm

It's a cat 4 now? 130mph winds

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:16 pm

Cat 4 Holy Shitskies

by **Radz** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:36 pm

Seems to have slowed down as well...

by **Radz** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:37 pm

Radz wrote:Seems to have slowed down as well...

Never mind... just read the Tropical Tidbits link above

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:50 pm

Rob good video easy to understand..it did not feel long ThAnk you

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:53 pm

Mayor in a Texas toen tweeted to his townspeople if you don't evacuate write your name on your arm and SS#.
Holy morbid.
Has slowed down to 8 mph and now making a left turn into the coa st about 1 hr till.landfall.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:01 pm

Nature's beauty and destruction all wrapped into one

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 IMG_9030.JPG.d360f78011600f392fd1fac424e91439

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 IMG_9030.JPG.d360f78011600f392fd1fac424e91439

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:09 pm

God help them

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:05 pm

Jesus I haven't checked in in a bit that is a text book perfect looking hurricane good god!

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:09 pm

Jeff Piotrwski is on periscope live in the middle of this hurricane

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:10 pm

I hope he survives

by **Radz** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:23 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:I hope he survives

Was watching, freed just stopped- crazy video

by **Radz** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:26 pm

Radz wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I hope he survives
Was watching, freed just stopped- crazy video

He's back, measured 939 pressure

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:33 pm

Surprised so quiet on here

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:55 pm

NAM not really in range yet, but looks to bring Irma up the coast

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 18 Namconus_ref_frzn_eus_52

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:00 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM not really in range yet, but looks to bring Irma up the coast

I have a feeling we will be under some type of tropical system watch or warning early to mid week next week, the idea of this storm moving more north and west is gaining ctredibility. And like rb said if it is indeed right close to the CMC, we really could be in ttrouble especially since we have now seen 3 storms way under modelened with intensity and cmc has at least a cat 1.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:01 pm

I was busy all day, just watching tv footage now, amazing looking hurricane, scary but amazing beauty perfectly clear eye and minutes from landfall.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:01 pm

Harvey's pressure down to 938mb now and only moving at 7 mph

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:NAM not really in range yet, but looks to bring Irma up the coast

I have a feeling we will be under some type of tropical system watch or warning early to mid week next week, the idea of this storm moving more north and west is gaining ctredibility. And like rb said if it is indeed right close to the CMC, we really could be in ttrouble especially since we have now seen 3 storms way under modelened with intensity and cmc has at least a cat 1.

It's going be interesting to see what happens over the next few days. GFS just doesn't look right. Starts to develop it and then it shoots OTS. We've seen these storms not really modeled right with the intensity, so that'll be interesting to see once it gets off the coast of Florida

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:15 pm

It does not seem to have moved at all in days, the mark on the NHC map is the same spot its been. I mean models show it up this way or OTS by wednesday thats only 4-5 days away, not much time.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:15 pm

Mom cat 5's in rhe gulf go lower than this.
Hurricane Camilr was a CAT 5 and recorded a pressure of 900 mb and winds sustains of 175 at one point. That would literally rip your skin off your skeletal frame.
The eye is over Rockport and Hcane Chasers have tweeted that their ears popped from the sudden deip. One expert chimed in and said it is like falling thousands of feet in an airplane.
God help the people down there. If they didn't evac then Jesus they ain't going to make it.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:17 pm

An the HP over the SW is blocking it up and the HP over the GOM is not letting it turn NE and escape. It is the worst sitch for this. Thus will last until about Sunday from all projections for this area.
The aftermath is going to be unimaginable IMHO.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:19 pm

Yeah mugs the after pics are going to be pretty jaw dropping i think.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:02 am

GFS still OTS with Irma. Keeps it weak and disorganized.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:16 am

Sanchize06 wrote:GFS still OTS with Irma. Keeps it weak and disorganized.

Yep, and CMC is weaker and looks to go OTS, thoughclose, lots of time and senarios to go.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 26, 2017 4:15 am

With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 26, 2017 4:46 am

rb924119 wrote:With regard to Irma, this is turning into a short-range vs. global model battle. UKMET, NAM, and SREFs all look similar, and if the NAM/many of the SREF members were extrapolated would no question show at least a tropical storm, and I'd be willing to bet a category 1 hurricane overhead next week as it skirts the coast. The UKMET is still too far out to be able to make such a statement, though as stated, looks similar to the former through hour 72 (the end of its temporal range). The globals, well, you know those results lol

with the way the name has done I'd be willing to bet on it to a degree more than the lr.

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