Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[rb924119]

As a follow up, I will probably go back and do an analysis as to how bad my bust was, and plot the observed positions on my track to see how they compare. That should be pretty interesting, as I feel I missed by about 2° latitude (~120 miles). We'll see; a lot of frustration to relive, but a big lesson to be learned, so it's worth it. You can't learn if you're never wrong.

[rb924119]

The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS.  Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!

I can answer that question both August 2013 and 2014 were below normal very similar to this August which is a big difference from August 2015 and 2016 which we were four degrees above normal

2004 also. Btw yet again your prediction holds, Al; Ima start calling you "Storm Whisperer" you keep this up ahahahaha nice job!!!

[weatherwatchermom]

The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS.  Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!

I can answer that question both August 2013 and 2014 were below normal very similar to this August which is a big difference from August 2015 and 2016 which we were four degrees above normal

Thank you...as I sit covered with a blanket watching the horrific story playing out in texas

[Snow88]

GFS has a very weak surface reflection at 186 hours

Nothing like the Euro and CMC

[Snow88]

I spoke too soon

GFS has trended towards the CMC and Euro

Here is 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017082918&fh=186

[Snow88]

93L is a major hurricane for Florida on the GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082918&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=1001

[Math23x7]

The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS.  Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!

I can answer that question both August 2013 and 2014 were below normal very similar to this August which is a big difference from August 2015 and 2016 which we were four degrees above normal

2004 also. Btw yet again your prediction holds, Al; Ima start calling you "Storm Whisperer" you keep this up ahahahaha nice job!!!

August 2007 also had chilly temperatures. It was 59 for a HIGH one day. And there were several days with highs in the 60's.

[jmanley32]

I spoke too soon

GFS has trended towards the CMC and Euro

Here is 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017082918&fh=186

wow 2 landfall in FL then tries reemerge into Atlantic. This may be a very dangerous one if these models hold serve but I'm waiting at least a week before really getting into it.

[Snow88]

Every model now develops a major hurricane

This is going to be very interesting to track

[jmanley32]

Every model now develops a major hurricane

This is going to be very interesting to track

I think we have Irma by Fri. Or before. No coincidence that Irene wasn't but a few days ago in I think 2011. Another I storm.

[Snow88]

Every model now develops a major hurricane

This is going to be very interesting to track

I think we have Irma by Fri. Or before. No coincidence that Irene wasn't but a few days ago in I think 2011. Another I storm.

Irene was late August 2011

[Math23x7]

Ryan Maue from Weatherbell posted these two images regarding the 12Z EURO.

The first image shows the trough on the east coast at hr 240 on the operational run with the hurricane (most likely Irma) approaching the Bahamas.  This trough would likely kick this storm out to sea:



The second image shows the spaghetti plots from the ensemble runs.  A good chunk of them seem to show (most likely) Irma going out to sea.



Still a lot to be ironed out but the trough and the Atlantic ridge seem to be to two major players to guide (most likely) Irma late next week

[jmanley32]

Lots of them stay further south too. For Ryan to say major Irma is pretty rare for him. He isn't one to hype.

[amugs]

Math - wait and see what happens - you cant say it is getting out to sea at this juncture. Models have been bad 10 days out with these storms overall.

[jmanley32]

Wow 00z GFS has 93L in the same spot as 18z but 50mb+ deeper at 943 mb versus 998mb on 18z taken verbatim of course witha grain of salt!  The rest of this run should be interesting.  CMC was near the same.

[jmanley32]

Hires gewts to 931mb before it goes into non hi res range in bahamas holy snikes as  mugs would say.


Good lord thats a scary looking storm and being it was 931mb at 240 and continued down after hi-res id put this at cat 5 status, beastly, next week will be quite a week if this comes to fruition.

[jmanley32]

Crazyland I know, and it does go ots just in the knick of time or we would have a cat 2/3 landfall....

[Dunnzoo]

Forget that, gfs has another storm hitting Texas next week....

[jmanley32]

Yeah no that can't happen. However this storm has all 3 models on board and generally same spot at 240. God if Texas gets hit again that you ould b terrible.

[weatherwatchermom]

Forget that, gfs has another storm hitting Texas next week....

I can not imagine that that would be just simply cruel

[amugs]

Crazyland I know, and it does go ots just in the knick of time or we would have a cat 2/3 landfall....


J

Jman,
Holy Snikes is right!! If that were to happen we'd still get crushed. The wind field , surge and rains would detroy our beaches and NY Harbor. Inland would get walloped too. It is possible.

[skinsfan1177]

Crazyland I know, and it does go ots just in the knick of time or we would have a cat 2/3 landfall....


J

Jman,
Holy Snikes is right!! If that were to happen we'd still get crushed. The wind field , surge and rains would detroy our beaches and NY Harbor. Inland would get walloped too. It is possible.

Yeah I'm hoping that doesn't happen up here at all don't need it!! Sandy was enough for me

[jmanley32]

The euro holds serve on a cat 4 around or east of Bahamas by Fri the 8th. Nhc gives it 100% chance and feels will begin advisories at 11am. And will steadily slowly intensify. Intensity graph gets her really up there.

[weatherwatchermom]

Crazyland I know, and it does go ots just in the knick of time or we would have a cat 2/3 landfall....


J

Jman,
Holy Snikes is right!! If that were to happen we'd still get crushed. The wind field , surge and rains would detroy our beaches and NY Harbor. Inland would get walloped too. It is possible.

Yeah I'm hoping that doesn't happen up here at all don't need it!! Sandy was enough for me

i agree with you skins..this needs to be a beautiful storm for the fishies!!!!!

[jmanley32]

We have Irma per ngc special statement will make official at 11am. I'm telling u this go b a beast already skipped depression.

[skinsfan1177]

We have Irma per ngc special statement will make official at 11am. I'm telling u this go b a beast already skipped depression.

Send the beast ots

[EnyapWeather]

I’d actually like to see what a hurricane is like in real life so I’m cheering for this one to be close.

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