Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

by **amugs** Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I've been lurking. Guys enough!!! 15 pages of thread for some showers and slight breeze. A 10 minute thunderstorm is more of an event than Irma will be.

Syo has awoken! Listen if you dont want to follow this no problem, go back to your den and hibetnate till.late Rocktober! Enjoy your sleep Very Happy

by **amugs** Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:53 pm

devsman wrote:Something tells me that we will have something before September is up. Just a gut feeling but hopefully nothing like Harvey.maybe more like a Gloria. That was a fun one.

I agree euro and EPS are hinting at it big time and pattern is there. Let's see what happens.

by **algae888** Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:54 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I've been lurking. Guys enough!!! 15 pages of thread for some showers and slight breeze. A 10 minute thunderstorm is more of an event than Irma will be.

james you're dead on. here is my nws forecast for 24 hrs from now...
Tuesday Night
Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible
one hour of rain. I am starting to prepare as I write this. jman just kidding

by **Grselig** Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:58 pm

I've got a chance of rain. The biggest thunder on this site was political!!!! In truth, I'm just praying for Texas

by **amugs** Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:05 pm

This is crazy white shades 25" plus
2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Img_9010

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:07 pm

Grselig wrote:I've got a chance of rain. The biggest thunder on this site was political!!!! In truth, I'm just praying for Texas

ahahaha I'll give that the best comment of the week! 10 has also dropped to only a 50% chance of development. It may and more likely not even become Irma. That would leave the next system which is already at 80% for the illusive letter I storm. I cannot believe Texas us still in for 15 inches more rain....

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:09 pm

93 l looks like a recurve far out at sea but here we go again with 20 days of tracking. That was for u Al. Lol jk

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:45 am

Tropical Storm Watches hoisted from Surf City southward Smile

Jman, you got your ears on??? Lol

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:33 am

rb924119 wrote:Tropical Storm Watches hoisted from Surf City southward Jman, you got your ears on??? Lo

Doubt it goes any further north than that models all looked well offshore from last night, I got heebee jeebees see end of GFS, but we all know about the GFS abd its phantom storms.

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:35 am

Wait I just looked at NWS theres no watches north of the warning?

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:38 am

rb924119 wrote:Tropical Storm Watches hoisted from Surf City southward Jman, you got your ears on??? Lol

Yes surf city NC not NJ my friend. Theres two surf cities.

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:54 am

F meeeeeee lmaooo bastards

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:56 am

Euro really likes 93L, wow 956mb in caribbean SE of FL, in this run it has a straight shot gap to ride the coast if that HP doesnt push east too fast, way to far out to speculate anything on that. All can say now is it has a 80% chance in the 5 day and looks pretty healthy.

by **amugs** Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:38 am

93 L we need to watch
Euro bottom map has a very ominus set up for a MAJOR mid Atlantic Northeast crush job!!

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Img_2066

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Img_2066

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Img_2067

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Img_2068

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:06 am

Yeah I thought it was quite the setup. The upper level forecast out to 10 days, is that at all accurate moreso than the actual tropical system? It is at 70/90, doesnt look like theres a lot to hinder it.

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:42 pm

I've been defeated, ladies and gents. It took the right fork :/

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:I've been defeated, ladies and gents. It took the right fork :/

it's okay. May not even become Irma which will make 93l interesting. Some weather sites saying the position in setup in 10 day of euro somewhat similar to Sandy setup?

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:34 pm

Also feel this one may get some rather stout media attention in next 4 to 7 days. I mean all 3 models on it. K rb go lol let's see what ur thoughts are on 93l. Forget bout td10 it's a snooze.

by **amugs** Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:47 pm

Rb no problem my man, it was a tough one. Just the appetizer inmho. Big dogs are ready to bark up the coast the next few weeks. MJO hanging in Phase 2 and +++AMO helping fuelnit with a La Nina base state dying Pac cyclone state.

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:03 pm

Man look at this setup, if I am looking at this right this could bring it right up the coast maybe even a landfall in midatlantic/northeast. That is verbatim if extrapolated out, but thats into fantasyland let alone 10 days, long ways to go but this one will be Irma, the thing we been talk bout for no reason off EC is down to 10%, so its not getting named.

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Ecmwf_10

2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread - Page 28 Ecmwf_10

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Man look at this setup, if I am looking at this right this could bring it right up the coast maybe even a landfall in midatlantic/northeast. That is verbatim if extrapolated out, but thats into fantasyland let alone 10 days, long ways to go but this one will be Irma, the thing we been talk bout for no reason off EC is down to 10%, so its not getting named.

Yeah going to be lots of tracking jman

by **Math23x7** Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:49 pm

The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS. Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:37 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS. Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Also feel this one may get some rather stout media attention in next 4 to 7 days. I mean all 3 models on it. K rb go lol let's see what ur thoughts are on 93l. Forget bout td10 it's a snooze.

Posts this on my FB page earlier about how I feel. Am I mad that I busted? Absolutely. I should have known that the the frictional difference between land and sea would keep the circulation nestled along the coast instead of allowing it to go inland. I saw that, but I thought the system would overcome it. As mad as I am, the below sentiment helps, and at least there was something to track, and some things to take away from it.

"This system is going to end up following the southern half of my preliminary track, which will mitigate the effects from the Delmarva northeastward, which is good news. Technically a bust, but I can walk away knowing my longstanding ideas with the system clearly had merit since the system is making it as far north as the Delmarva, but also with things to remember for next time. Can't ask for much more than that. Onto the next item of news as time permits."

It was quite a ride for me, and as mad and exhausted as I am from tracking this thing only to see it do what it is doing, I can't wait for the next system that catches my and to start the process all over again Smile

by **algae888** Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:39 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS. Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!

I can answer that question both August 2013 and 2014 were below normal very similar to this August which is a big difference from August 2015 and 2016 which we were four degrees above normal

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:41 pm

As a follow up, I will probably go back and do an analysis as to how bad my bust was, and plot the observed positions on my track to see how they compare. That should be pretty interesting, as I feel I missed by about 2° latitude (~120 miles). We'll see; a lot of frustration to relive, but a big lesson to be learned, so it's worth it. You can't learn if you're never wrong.

by **rb924119** Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:43 pm

algae888 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:The big question would be how the trough interacts with this system. If the front does not slow down, it would probably be pushed OTS. Of course, if the ridge backs up the trough, things would get somewhat interesting.

Math I was thinking about you just this morning!! I was wondering the last time we had an August that had such cool temperatures over a long period of time!! I said to myself he would know!!
I can answer that question both August 2013 and 2014 were below normal very similar to this August which is a big difference from August 2015 and 2016 which we were four degrees above normal

2004 also. Btw yet again your prediction holds, Al; Ima start calling you "Storm Whisperer" you keep this up ahahahaha nice job!!!

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