Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[Quietace]

I thought with the temperature of the waters off the NJ coast it was nearly impossible to have a cat 3 or 4, dare if I say 5. Can someone correct me if I'm wrong? Also I can't imagine what it would look like if a cat 4 or even 5 blew through here? Would houses be torn apart?

While SST have a direct correlation to TC intensity, a already intense cyclone in a favorable environment with other support factors can retain intensity with lower SST. Though, ~26.5*C isn't too cold. Another note is that a already intense TC that is re-curving with enough forward velocity will prevent up-welling, and also minimize time it has to weaken over the cooler SST before transitioning into a ex-trop cyclone, example: NE Hurricane 1938....

[Quietace]

One Note, GFS is deepeends Irma down below 900mb while initializing too weak. Here is a look at general TC guidance over next few days.

[Quietace]

One last note before bed is using the dvorak tech, Irma is around a 4.5-5. This correlates to 75-90kt system, much higher than NHC current advisory (they estimated 3.5).

[Guest]

pray, voodoo rituals whatever the hell you want to do in order to keep this damn system away from us

Sign me up right now for a cat 4 direct hit on LI. I'm in. And yes I know the damage that would occur. I just wanna live it. And before anyone complains we live on the coast. It's part of the gamble.

[jmanley32]

Be careful what you wish for! You wouldnt be staying on LI if a cat 4 was coming (if you do you;d better have room for me lol).  Anyways NHC 65mph, progged to be hurricane maybe as soon as next advisory a major by 8pm sunday now, continues to gain more intensity than expected.  Thats the story with all systems so far this year.  One thing is for sure this will boast a HUGE ACE for the atlantic especially if it gets up tocat 4 for a long period.

[Grselig]

Sandy was scary. Unforgettable. Trees hanging out on rooftops, actual flooding, loss of power. It sucked. A hurricane does sound exciting at first thought, but after Sandy and watching Harvey, I am too young to have 2 once in a lifetime storms. I'm truly hoping for a non event and an exciting winter.

[mwilli5783]

anyone see whats behind irma coming off the african coastline by tomorrow or friday

[jmanley32]

00z gfs good god a 910mb cat 5 off cape cod retrogrades into Maine mass border. Is the gfs smoking something? I guess that takes care of reds sucks! Cmc looks like it would recurve and euro ends at tip of fl headed into gom. nearing a hurricane I'm betting by 11am or b4 it's a hurricane.

[jmanley32]

Hmm gfs is west and east coast bound euro operational stays well south while the ensembles are more in line with gfs. Scary 06z run incoming think we see a direct cat 5 landfall from obx or North...

[nutleyblizzard]

Hmm gfs is west and east coast bound euro operational stays well south while the ensembles are more in line with gfs. Scary 06z run incoming think we see a direct cat 5 landfall from obx or North...

Yea Jman I'm watching the GFS run too. You can clearly see the trough is going to pick up Irma and pull it right up the coast. That was my concern that I mentioned yesterday. Devastating run incoming.

[jmanley32]

Jesus cat 5 hits Carolinas then starts head more North still cat 5. I know sroc man of reason don't take it verbatim but still wow...

[jmanley32]

Remember pressure still prolly low 900s after 240 hrs as hi res stops. If this turns north even inlsnd we still see a cat 2 or 3 remnant. If u can call it that.

[skinsfan1177]

Here you go jman

[jmanley32]

This would be devastating Carolinas north. Cat 3 into nj and weakens but not enough prolly still well over 100 mph einds. That was a crazy run. Which is right gfs or euro. Cmc closer to gfs but a bit slower.

[jmanley32]

In that run we are on the eastern side too not good. It is a off run but u can't ignore these continuous near Miss or hits on the area. That run drops 8 inches rain with cat 2 maybe 3 winds prolly and the date not a good one to remember to begin with.

[jmanley32]

People on other boards are say it's trending to the euro in staying more west. I don't think at this juncture can call anything a trend.

[Dunnzoo]

People on other boards are say it's trending to the euro in staying more west. I don't think at this juncture can call anything a trend.

At this point can't call anything...too far out and too many variables. Wait til next week, no need to get excited about it now and hyping up a storm that may just be one for the fishes

[sroc4]

No trends yet beyond day 4.  Here are the last two Euro Op runs on day 9, followed by the last two GFS op runs same time frame. Upper levels still all over the place from run to run.  

EURO:




GFS:





Here are the Euro Ensembles followed by the GFS ensembles.  As you will see below both have a wide spread extending from GOM to NE with euro mean currently centered near the GOM or Fla Straits and GFS 1 clustering off the SE coast, and another E of OBX:  

EPS:



GEFS:



As you can see highly volatile run to run within models at 500mb.  Below is where the Euro Op and GFS Op have the MSLP center of Irma located at day 4.  Even though both models have the MSLP center close to each other by day 4 you can still see there are differences.  From there Euro makes landfall over the northern Lesser Antilles between day 6-7; whereas, the GFS takes Irma well north of the islands between day 6-7.  As you can plainly see beyond day four the cone of uncertainty extends from the GOM to Nova Scotia Canada.  So again zero consistent trending is seen beyond day 4 at this time.  

[Snow88]

Irma should be a hurricane by the 11am NHC update

[sroc4]

Agreed

[Frank_Wx]

What's slightly concerning for the East Coast in regards to Irma is the mid-level trough models show swinging through the Great Lakes September 5th-6th. Unfortunately we're all pretty aware what happens when timing between a trough and an Atlantic Hurricane comes together just right. Further, and I'm not sure what other models besides the GFS show this, there is another tropical entity shown to form in the Gulf of Mexico in that 5th-6th time frame which may try to enhance that mid-level trough as it comes through the East Coast. Probably the main player in the set-up is the High Pressure acting as a block possibly preventing the storm from heading out to sea. It has a decent path to move pretty far west. How far west depends on the aforementioned mid-level trough. I won't comment much at this point since I have not had a chance to review other guidance, but Irma needs to be watched for sure.

[jmanley32]

In the short range Irma is really getting her act together. I agree 11am will b a hurricane.

[sroc4]

Check out the eye wall structure already. Irma is going to be a beautiful system at her peek which will likely be a Cat 5 at some point.

[weatherwatchermom]

What's slightly concerning for the East Coast in regards to Irma is the mid-level trough models show swinging through the Great Lakes September 5th-6th. Unfortunately we're all pretty aware what happens when timing between a trough and an Atlantic Hurricane comes together just right. Further, and I'm not sure what other models besides the GFS show this, there is another tropical entity shown to form in the Gulf of Mexico in that 5th-6th time frame which may try to enhance that mid-level trough as it comes through the East Coast. Probably the main player in the set-up is the High Pressure acting as a block possibly preventing the storm from heading out to sea. It has a decent path to move pretty far west. How far west depends on the aforementioned mid-level trough. I won't comment much at this point since I have not had a chance to review other guidance, but Irma needs to be watched for sure.

thanks frank.this is all a little concerning..is mid week next week the point when when we will have a better idea? .on a happier note .glad to see you are back..hope you enjoyed your summer...nice picture!!

[Frank_Wx]

EPS really take her west...

[Frank_Wx]

What's slightly concerning for the East Coast in regards to Irma is the mid-level trough models show swinging through the Great Lakes September 5th-6th. Unfortunately we're all pretty aware what happens when timing between a trough and an Atlantic Hurricane comes together just right. Further, and I'm not sure what other models besides the GFS show this, there is another tropical entity shown to form in the Gulf of Mexico in that 5th-6th time frame which may try to enhance that mid-level trough as it comes through the East Coast. Probably the main player in the set-up is the High Pressure acting as a block possibly preventing the storm from heading out to sea. It has a decent path to move pretty far west. How far west depends on the aforementioned mid-level trough. I won't comment much at this point since I have not had a chance to review other guidance, but Irma needs to be watched for sure.

thanks frank.this is all a little concerning..is mid week next week the point when when we will have a better idea? .on a happier note .glad to see you are back..hope you enjoyed your summer...nice picture!!

I would say Labor Day we have a decent idea whether she goes out to sea or makes landfall somewhere along the East Coast of the U.S.

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like Irma developed an eye. Probably a hurricane at the 11am NHC advisory.

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