Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[SoulSingMG]

Some perspective. (Courtesy @NorthEast_Wx)

Soul This map is perfectly done.

Yeah, agreed. LOTS of tracking days ahead of us.

[skinsfan1177]

Euro control was unreal

[Snow88]

GFS is going to produce another major fish storm

[Snow88]

Wow, the GFS really blows up the storm. Sub 910. It's more west than the 12z run.

[jmanley32]

Euro control was unreal

post just for kicks. Or I'm gonna b forced to rejoin wxbell lol

[jmanley32]

Wow, the GFS really blows up the storm. Sub 910. It's more west than the 12z run.

it's unreal. But thank goodness it's far out if a cat 5 was being shown there in the 5 day oy.

[sroc4]

You got me Ray! Just like a text message...you lose context from body language etc. I thought you were serious.

[Snow88]

Wow it's really close on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017083018&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=545

[rb924119]

Euro control was unreal

post just for kicks. Or I'm gonna b forced to rejoin wxbell lol

LI Express with a Sandy track into Connecticut lol

[jmanley32]

Gfs for real 897,mb!!

[rb924119]

You got me Ray!   Just like a text message...you lose context from body language etc. I thought you were serious.  

Smdh, Scott lmfaoooooo

[jmanley32]

Euro control was unreal

post just for kicks. Or I'm gonna b forced to rejoin wxbell lol

LI Express with a Sandy track into Connecticut lol

gfs is a disaster too. Can't post image of control?

[jmanley32]

I know it's fantasy land or not fantasy cuz even I don't want a cat 4 or 5 that would b worst ever disaster here.

[jmanley32]

You got me Ray!   Just like a text message...you lose context from body language etc. I thought you were serious.  

Smdh, Scott lmfaoooooo

Scott u owe me an apology too lol. I'm not a jerk I'd never really say something like that and mean it.

[rb924119]

You got me Ray!   Just like a text message...you lose context from body language etc. I thought you were serious.  

Smdh, Scott lmfaoooooo

Scott u owe me an apology too lol. I'm not a jerk I'd never really say something like that and mean it.

That's what he said!!!! You'd best reread, my friend ahaha he said you were only busting my chops lol

[rb924119]

Just for you Jman:

[weatherwatchermom]

Just for you Jman:

that's not funny...

[jmanley32]

Just for you Jman:

and then hooks west? That's nearly same spot as gfs. Reminds me of some early runs of Sandy. And I guessed it would happen. What hour is that at?

[rb924119]

Just for you Jman:

that's not funny...

Not at all. But it's at that range where where you're gonna see every possible solution depending on which model you look at. Does it raise my eyebrows? Absolutely. Does it give me flashbacks of Sandy? No doubt. I see how it can happen given this pattern, very easily in fact, but at the same time I'm not going to comment other than to say that it's possible, as is anything, but no more beyond that because I haven't done enough digging yet. Just watch and gawk for now, as these are just the games models are going to continue to play for the next several days.

[rb924119]

Just for you Jman:

and then hooks west? That's nearly same spot as gfs. Reminds me of some early runs of Sandy. And I guessed it would happen. What hour is that at?

Well, I'm assuming it would based on its motion and H5. Its Day 15, so 384 lol

[weatherwatchermom]

Just for you Jman:

that's not funny...

Not at all. But it's at that range where where you're gonna see every possible solution depending on which model you look at. Does it raise my eyebrows? Absolutely. Does it give me flashbacks of Sandy? No doubt. I see how it can happen given this pattern, very easily in fact, but at the same time I'm not going to comment other than to say that it's possible, as is anything, but no more beyond that because I haven't done enough digging yet. Just watch and gawk for now, as these are just the games models are going to continue to play for the next several days.

I hope so...all I remember is everyone saying how Sandy..stuck to its track .....I know its too far out...but will start to worry next week..I know we are in good hands with getting the latest and honest forecast from you guys....Will not start to prep or panic till you tell me its time!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Normally I wouldn't comment on a storm potential 10+ days away, but Irma has me concerned. The models are already in agreement that this will be a major cat 4 or 5 storm. The key to the track is when Irma reaches the southeast Bahamas. Does it get picked up by the incoming trough and booted out to sea, or does it miss it and you have a major cane slamming into the southeast coastline? There's also the nightmare scenario where the trough and a pressing atlantic ridge brings it right up the coast. The Euro was starting to show this at the end of the run. Interesting times ahead.

[amugs]

HUMINA HUMINA!!



EURO ENS BARKING AT A 4!!

[amugs]

Normally I wouldn't comment on a storm potential 10+ days away, but Irma has me concerned. The models are already in agreement that this will be a major cat 4 or 5 storm. The key to the track is when Irma reaches the southeast Bahamas. Does it get picked up by the incoming trough and booted out to sea, or does it miss it and you have a major cane slamming into the southeast coastline? There's also the nightmare scenario where the trough and a pressing atlantic ridge brings it right up the coast. The Euro was starting to show this at the end of the run. Interesting times ahead.

Nuts,

She is going to miss that trough most likely as modeled - the trough will swing through as she is getting to the Bahamas - even Isotherm commented on this on another board and bolded that this is SE Coast strike/nightmare. When Tom speaks as such holy smokes we listen. Then he went on to say if a mid level trough swings in and catches her and pulls her north, the block is deeper and pins her up against the coast so she rides the eastern seaboard or if she goes inland. Of course a chance of her going OTS if she feels a weakness in the WAR but the first point is what looks to be at this juncture.

[RJB8525]

pray, voodoo rituals whatever the hell you want to do in order to keep this damn system away from us

[nutleyblizzard]

Normally I wouldn't comment on a storm potential 10+ days away, but Irma has me concerned. The models are already in agreement that this will be a major cat 4 or 5 storm. The key to the track is when Irma reaches the southeast Bahamas. Does it get picked up by the incoming trough and booted out to sea, or does it miss it and you have a major cane slamming into the southeast coastline? There's also the nightmare scenario where the trough and a pressing atlantic ridge brings it right up the coast. The Euro was starting to show this at the end of the run. Interesting times ahead.

Nuts,

She is going to miss that trough most likely as modeled - the trough will swing through as she is getting  to the Bahamas - even Isotherm commented on this on another board and bolded that this is SE Coast strike/nightmare. When Tom speaks as such holy smokes we listen. Then he went on to say if a mid level trough swings in and catches her and pulls her north, the block is deeper and pins her up against the coast so she rides the eastern seaboard or if she goes inland. Of course a chance of her going OTS if she feels a weakness in the WAR but the first point is what looks to be  at this juncture.

Another thing to keep in mind is when hurricanes get as strong as currently depicted with Irma, they tend to create their own upper level wind pattern. Thus the term "a mind of its own."

[jmanley32]

Mugs if a cat 4 or 5 hits the seeit would still be a big storm once moving up this way. That euro image is close to identical to a Sandy control run about 10 days out. I wish I could find it it's errily similar.

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