Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[nutleyblizzard]

Normally I wouldn't comment on a storm potential 10+ days away, but Irma has me concerned. The models are already in agreement that this will be a major cat 4 or 5 storm. The key to the track is when Irma reaches the southeast Bahamas. Does it get picked up by the incoming trough and booted out to sea, or does it miss it and you have a major cane slamming into the southeast coastline? There's also the nightmare scenario where the trough and a pressing atlantic ridge brings it right up the coast. The Euro was starting to show this at the end of the run. Interesting times ahead.

Nuts,

She is going to miss that trough most likely as modeled - the trough will swing through as she is getting  to the Bahamas - even Isotherm commented on this on another board and bolded that this is SE Coast strike/nightmare. When Tom speaks as such holy smokes we listen. Then he went on to say if a mid level trough swings in and catches her and pulls her north, the block is deeper and pins her up against the coast so she rides the eastern seaboard or if she goes inland. Of course a chance of her going OTS if she feels a weakness in the WAR but the first point is what looks to be  at this juncture.

Another thing to keep in mind is when hurricanes get as strong as currently depicted with Irma, they tend to create their own upper level wind pattern. Thus the term "a mind of its own."

[jmanley32]

Mugs if a cat 4 or 5 hits the seeit would still be a big storm once moving up this way. That euro image is close to identical to a Sandy control run about 10 days out. I wish I could find it it's errily similar.

[jmanley32]

Normally I wouldn't comment on a storm potential 10+ days away, but Irma has me concerned. The models are already in agreement that this will be a major cat 4 or 5 storm. The key to the track is when Irma reaches the southeast Bahamas. Does it get picked up by the incoming trough and booted out to sea, or does it miss it and you have a major cane slamming into the southeast coastline? There's also the nightmare scenario where the trough and a pressing atlantic ridge brings it right up the coast. The Euro was starting to show this at the end of the run. Interesting times ahead.

Nuts,

She is going to miss that trough most likely as modeled - the trough will swing through as she is getting  to the Bahamas - even Isotherm commented on this on another board and bolded that this is SE Coast strike/nightmare. When Tom speaks as such holy smokes we listen. Then he went on to say if a mid level trough swings in and catches her and pulls her north, the block is deeper and pins her up against the coast so she rides the eastern seaboard or if she goes inland. Of course a chance of her going OTS if she feels a weakness in the WAR but the first point is what looks to be  at this juncture.

Another thing to keep in mind is when hurricanes get as strong as currently depicted with Irma, they tend to create their own upper level wind pattern. Thus the term "a mind of its own."

totally true. Matthew did a lot of things that were not totally forecasted. Only time will tell sadly the only thing we know is this looks to get to me d too high major status.

[jmanley32]

HUMINA HUMINA!!



EURO ENS BARKING AT A 4!!

the majority also show a east coast threat or recurve very few into gulf. If the eastern ones start to edge closer to the coast that won't be good.

[EnyapWeather]

I thought with the temperature of the waters off the NJ coast it was nearly impossible to have a cat 3 or 4, dare if I say 5. Can someone correct me if I'm wrong? Also I can't imagine what it would look like if a cat 4 or even 5 blew through here? Would houses be torn apart?

[jmanley32]

I would say it's highly unlikely biggest I know of was cat 3 li express. Yeah it would do a lot of structural damage. It would be horrible disaster but no pt in think bout that with 2 weeks to go.

[Joe Snow]

Sea Temperatures off the Jersey Coast are currently at 76°-79° not that cold.

[Snow88]

18z GEFS is also barking for an east coast hurricane

[jmanley32]

18z GEFS is also barking for an east coast hurricane

Wow just saw, you aint kidding, some are a direct hit, others a coastal ride, if indeed its a cat 4 plus we would still see hurricane or ts conditions even as it weakens  (ie. irene) What has gotten me going on this is the model agreement at least within 5 days and the fact that all models are on it, not like past systems that are lost come back back and forth.

[skinsfan1177]

Some NYC hits

[jmanley32]

Jeeze HWRF just posted by ryan maue shows at 126 hrs 900mb winds 158kts!!

[jmanley32]

Some NYC hits

If this thing ends upo being as powerful as models are showing a direct landfall wont be necessary for devastating conditions.  We arent made to withstand a storm like that.

[Joe Snow]

Jeeze HWRF just posted by ryan maue shows at 126 hrs 900mb winds 158kts!!

That would tear my kite apart..............

[skinsfan1177]

Some NYC hits

If this thing ends upo being as powerful as models are showing a direct landfall wont be necessary for devastating conditions.  We arent made to withstand a storm like that.

Right I'm an that's why I want it ots the jersey shore is still recovering from Sandy

[Joe Snow]

I know it's still far out but............it's a bit concerning.

Living on Long Island, would tear this Island apart

[SoulSingMG]

Jeeze HWRF just posted by ryan maue shows at 126 hrs 900mb winds 158kts!!

IRMA-GODDDD. She means business.

[jmanley32]

I know it's still far out but............it's a bit concerning.

Living on Long Island, would tear this Island apart

What people may not realize (general public) is that Sandy was most noted for its water issues, winds were not super hoigh, if we had 125mph plus wind gusts that would add a whole slew of more issues.  Sandy was perfectly lined up to cause the flooding it did, I dunno if that would happen again but higher winds could cause even more problems especially inland areas woith trees like my area for instance, though since Sandy they have cut down a ton.  Kinda sad but I guess necessary.

[amugs]

It could easily maintain a major category 3 OT 4 stats with warm anomalous waters to feed off of and a very warm gulf stream. This is the time of year through mid September when these can occur.

IF we were to take a direct hit anywhere rom the Delmarva up to LI with that kind of storm I don't thi k we have the resources for such. We would be stretched to our country's ultimate limit.
 NORTH Korea would take advantage!!

[skinsfan1177]

I know it's still far out but............it's a bit concerning.

Living on Long Island, would tear this Island apart

What people may not realize (general public) is that Sandy was most noted for its water issues, winds were not super hoigh, if we had 125mph plus wind gusts that would add a whole slew of more issues.  Sandy was perfectly lined up to cause the flooding it did, I dunno if that would happen again but higher winds could cause even more problems especially inland areas woith trees like my area for instance, though since Sandy they have cut down a ton.  Kinda sad but I guess necessary.

Jman sandy did bring 100mph winds to Point pleasant Beach I was at work out in it watching telephone poles sway and some snap in half

[jmanley32]

It could easily maintain a major category 3 OT 4 stats with warm anomalous waters to feed off of and a very warm gulf stream. This is the time of year through mid September when these can occur.

IF we were to take a direct hit anywhere rom the Delmarva up to LI with that kind of storm I don't thi k we have the resources for such. We would be stretched to our country's ultimate limit.
 NORTH Korea would take advantage!!

Especially less than a month after Harvey which is likely to be close to one of the costliest.  

Joe I am  a bit concerned too, but trying to temper myself (not sure if its excitement fear or both) till we get closer.  Go be a long 5-10 days, then we should see where she is headed in terns of the US, if at all which at this pt from models is a decent chance, that could obviously change on a dine though.

[jmanley32]

I know it's still far out but............it's a bit concerning.

Living on Long Island, would tear this Island apart

What people may not realize (general public) is that Sandy was most noted for its water issues, winds were not super hoigh, if we had 125mph plus wind gusts that would add a whole slew of more issues.  Sandy was perfectly lined up to cause the flooding it did, I dunno if that would happen again but higher winds could cause even more problems especially inland areas woith trees like my area for instance, though since Sandy they have cut down a ton.  Kinda sad but I guess necessary.

Jman sandy did bring 100mph winds to Point pleasant Beach I was at work out in it watching telephone poles sway and some snap in half

Yeah ur right but for most areas we saw 70-90mph gusts except the immediate coast,  a storm like Irma if came true would wreak havoc even well inland.

[skinsfan1177]

I never posted pictures from sandy because I never knew how but this one I always will remember

[Joe Snow]

It could easily maintain a major category 3 OT 4 stats with warm anomalous waters to feed off of and a very warm gulf stream. This is the time of year through mid September when these can occur.

IF we were to take a direct hit anywhere rom the Delmarva up to LI with that kind of storm I don't thi k we have the resources for such. We would be stretched to our country's ultimate limit.
 NORTH Korea would take advantage!!

Especially less than a month after Harvey which is likely to be close to one of the costliest.  

Joe I am  a bit concerned too, but trying to temper myself (not sure if its excitement fear or both) till we get closer.  Go be a long 5-10 days, then we should see where she is headed in terns of the US, if at all which at this pt from models is a decent chance, that could obviously change on a dine though.

Yep will be a long 5-10 day stretch, I have several hotels in Pa ready to book just in case......

[sroc4]

LOL.  We all need to take a step back.  Honestly I am going to be the voice of reason and continue to do so.  I DONT CARE HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS ARE BEYOND DAY 7 RIGHT NOW...IT MEANS NOTHING.  We still have to see where She is when she gets near 60W.  This is at least 7 days away.  As she approaches this longitude timing of trough along the EC, and the Atlantic ridge will tell the story.  Again this is at least 7-10 days away.  When 7-10 days out and beyond these upper level features always evolve as we get in closer; they always do, for better or worse.  If you don't believe me take a listen to Levi Cowins latest video.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

5 Letter here..just for everyone out there in "weather weenie land".....................

[EnyapWeather]

ECMWF says up east coast of Florida, through eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia and through central Delaware and New Jersey.

[Quietace]

I thought with the temperature of the waters off the NJ coast it was nearly impossible to have a cat 3 or 4, dare if I say 5. Can someone correct me if I'm wrong? Also I can't imagine what it would look like if a cat 4 or even 5 blew through here? Would houses be torn apart?

While SST have a direct correlation to TC intensity, a already intense cyclone in a favorable environment with other support factors can retain intensity with lower SST. Though, ~26.5*C isn't too cold. Another note is that a already intense TC that is re-curving with enough forward velocity will prevent up-welling, and also minimize time it has to weaken over the cooler SST before transitioning into a ex-trop cyclone, example: NE Hurricane 1938....

[Quietace]

One Note, GFS is deepeends Irma down below 900mb while initializing too weak. Here is a look at general TC guidance over next few days.

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