Tracking Hurricane Irma

sroc4 wrote:WOW!!!

bam cat 5 huge eye this is surreal. All in about 6 hrs. I'm affraid what the ceiling is for her! 06z gfs brings her to a 2nd landfall in SC and then remnants get pushed east into our area by Wednesday.

Radz wrote:

150mph winds, 937 millibars as of 5am

There is a recon plan currently In storm with another one on the way and current pressure is now down to 932.  Expect even more strengthening on the way this morning and today.  Thos poor Caribbean Islands.  

Jman Cat 5 officially has wind speeds above 156MPH if I'm not mistaken.  Although she may already be there even if its not official.

sroc4 wrote:Jman Cat 5 officially has wind speeds above 156MPH if I'm not mistaken.  Although she may already be there even if its not official.

nhc says 150 mph but I'm sure it's above that. Scary alot my friends have family in pr.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Good God. Second pass through the eyewall now has a min pressure of 929mb!!!!!!

Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

sroc4 wrote:165 kts winds recorded on the NE side!!!  That's 190MPH!!!!!!!!

UNREAL!!!!

7:45 update: Now a cat 5. Winds up to 175 mph and pressure down to 929mb

OFFICALLY A CAT 5 AT 175 MPH

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

That said, the 00z does still give us a high wind event

This is scary holy smokes 175mph!!

rb924119 wrote:That said, the 00z does still give us a high wind event

Yeah I am not convinced we do not see some impact from Irma, no its not go be CAT 5 but strong TS force winds and rain remnants I think is possible.  I really feel the panic my family must be feeling in FL.

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That said, the 00z does still give us a high wind event

Yeah I am not convinced we do not see some impact from Irma, no its not go be CAT 5 but strong TS force winds and rain remnants I think is possible.  I really feel the panic my family must be feeling in FL.

My thoughts are with your family, Jman. I keep telling my daughter in SC to have an evac plan in place and she keeps responding by telling me that if it's that bad the local weatherman will tell them. It's a pretty helpless feeling.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

To be completely honest, probably all of the above lol as sad as that sounds. I still like the further west track getting west of Florida and into the Gulf, personally, but JB said he thinks the modeling is as far west as it's gonna get, and is worried that the models might start coming back to the east again. Just gotta wait and see.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

TheAresian wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That said, the 00z does still give us a high wind event

Yeah I am not convinced we do not see some impact from Irma, no its not go be CAT 5 but strong TS force winds and rain remnants I think is possible.  I really feel the panic my family must be feeling in FL.

My thoughts are with your family, Jman. I keep telling my daughter in SC to have an evac plan in place and she keeps responding by telling me that if it's that bad the local weatherman will tell them. It's a pretty helpless feeling.

Same here, Jman. I also have friends down there that I'm keeping advised, but as stated it is a pretty helpless feeling. What's really scary is that by the time the track is fairly certain, depending on where this goes it might be too late to cary out large scale evacuations. Those things take days, and at this rate the landfall location may be known until three or four days out, which is cutting it very close, especially for areas like Miami, or other big cities.

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

Yeah, my florida family is prepared but they think that means hunkering down, I keep trying tell them this is no sit in ur house and wait it out, many houses will be destroyed, my birth mothers home is a tiny little house, weak will never survive 150mph winds (progged when it reaches FL) and shes on Vero Beach.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

It is fake (jk), the models are trying to trick us, watch it suddenly decides to run the coast in a few days and give us a TS or minimal hurricane.  I think once we see that turn if there is one the models will start to show where she goes from there,  it may not be before then.  Just a opinion.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Majority of GEFS members look to still be east of Florida, heading for the Carolinas. Pretty big shift just from 0z. Still a long way to go for the East Coast.

Yeah the GFS is trying to keep the Eastern Seaboard in the game, but the 00z runs were mainly west, which I personally take more seriously than the off-hour 06/18z's

Yeah the 12z runs will be interesting

If they stay east into the carolinas, does that put us back in the threat as a coastal runner or will it still likely get pushed west inland, or do we still have no clue?

I still think there's a lot of time for a scenario where it goes into NC and comes north, but I guess we'll see. What's forcing it that far inland, the ridge?

Inland, or west?

Inland, I know the ridge is forcing it further to the west in the next couple of days, but what's preventing it from coming up the coast after landfall?

The amount of interaction between itself and the shortwave trough diving into the central U.S. behind the big trough. The greater the interaction, the less likely to come up the coast. The less interaction, the further north the system can get before it eventually consolidates with the shortwave.