Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

I believe that the worst part of a hurricane is the northeast quadrant.

Dunn, Lee County Sheriff's Office and Lee County Office of Emergency Management have great Facebook pages that are updated often.

Dunnzoo wrote:

Vinnydula wrote:My dad is in the Cape. There under an mandatory evaluation .

Cape Coral?

Yep

Cape coral officer knock on my dad's door and told him that they have to leave. He's in the airport now

Vinnydula wrote:Cape coral officer knock on my dad's door and told him that they have to leave. He's in the airport now

Just talked to my brother, he is not in the evacuation zone and is staying. He has an underground propane tank good for about 2 weeks, and he lives in a concrete block house.

Eye wall looks like it's pretty close to north cost of cuba

Landfall on Cuba as almost every model show today

Yupp, about to make landfall, but the storm is still strengthening lol

I just heard Irma is now moving SW?! Is it a wobble or is it possible taking unexpected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-short.html

jmanley32 wrote:I just heard Irma is now moving SW?! Is it a wobble or is it possible taking unexpected track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rb-short.html

So Strange with this storm, maybe shes getting a few Cigars for the ride to Florida, who knows what goiig to happen.

Could it be the eye contracting?

its def moving south some follow the eye to cuba from start to finish on floater.

Joe Snow wrote:Could it be the eye contracting?

looks like it

jmanley32 wrote:its def moving south some follow the eye to cuba from start to finish on floater.

No doubt about it. That's quite a sharp left she just took.

Back up to cat 5

Funny thing is 24 hours ago the nam had it coming our way, lol.

sitting on the coast of Cuba but back up to Cat 5. 160 MPH

looks like she hit the brakes and may start North???

Frank_Wx wrote:

Looks like it is following the UKX model on this post that Frank made earlier today.

wow did she just go away?

It looks like she died in Cuba...

She is skipping along the archipelago of Cuba on the North shore. If it makes landfall thereally she will weaken to a stronhmgb4 then has another 24 before she makes it to the mainand encounterin 87* water temps.

If she stays a CAT 5 or strong Cat4 Flat is going to be sent back to the untechnological age of the 1800's for some time. If she stays off the west coast and rides up then she won't weaken much and could noose a really big threst to the upper west past of Fla. So many IFS with this storm her path and intensity is critical to the damage and where.

The euro is King. John you owe your brother Ray an apology. LOL. Well done Ray once again for sticking to your guns

Looks like Irmas has taken one on the chin with its land interactions from Cuba this morning.  The 5am update still had her as a strong Cat 4 but this will change:

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


But as of the latest recon max sustained winds have dropped and pressures have risen to at least 937mb.  The next update will likely reflect this unless recon finds stronger winds between now and then.  We will have to see how long her eye wall remains over land and how weak she gets.  



However; despite Irma taking a blow on the chin she is one tough chick.  Every model I looked at this morning shows her rapidly deepening again between the N coast of Cuba and Florida.  As we saw before she made it to the northern Lesser Antilles she is capable of very rapidly strengthening in a matter of mere hours when conditions are right.  

I believe Joe Snow said it best over night(brilliant), she likely stopped for a few Cuban cigars before headed north to the US of A.  She will be back over open waters for a minimum of about 175-225miles, +/-, before likely making landfall on the west coast of Fla.  If she skirts the coast obv longer over open water.  Extrapolated her current movement is at 12mph.  If she were to maintain that speed she would remain over the 88-90* water temps for about 14-19hrs.  Shear looks minimal between Cuba and Fla



Irma will likely rapidly strengthen again.  How strong depends on how weak she gets over the next 6-12hrs, and how long she spends back over the extremely warm waters of the Fla Straits.

You can see her entire western flank took a hit from the land interaction, but she is actually back over open water for the moment.  Her current movement looks like maybe back to a little more WNW instead of more W.  Its going to be a really close call if she comes back over Cuba again or not.  

LOL, love that Cuban cigar line Doc and Joe! Anyway, any weakening is all good news but that big stretch of warm water ahead spells trouble.It will be interesting to see how the hurricane reacts.Hoping for continued weakening to help Florida out as much as possible.

sroc4 wrote:You can see her entire western flank took a hit from the land interaction, but she is actually back over open water for the moment.  Her current movement looks like maybe back to a little more WNW instead of more W.  Its going to be a really close call if she comes back over Cuba again or not.  

Wow, Doc she is really going to have to make a sharp turn up the way it's moving west in these depictions.