Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

2pm update - Irma 922mb/175 mph winds. WOW

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 70.4 West. Irma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye
of Irma should continue to move between Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos this afternoon. The hurricane will then move across the
southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the central
Bahamas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with
higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). An unofficial observing site on Grand Turk recently
reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph
(106 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 922
mb (27.23 inches).

Artechmetals wrote:Frank my parents live in Port St. Lucie what do you recommend they do ?

Evacuate. Go west toward Tampa.

Frank, my parents live about 20 miles East of Tampa....Plant City FL.  How do you think it will be there?

bloc1357 wrote:Frank, my parents live about 20 miles East of Tampa....Plant City FL.  How do you think it will be there?

Assuming Irma takes EURO track, they will be fine unless there is another wobble west. However, that looks unlikely. They can expect high winds and heavy rain but they should not have to evacuate.

Frank_Wx wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:Frank, my parents live about 20 miles East of Tampa....Plant City FL.  How do you think it will be there?

Assuming Irma takes EURO track, they will be fine unless there is another wobble west. However, that looks unlikely. They can expect high winds and heavy rain but they should not have to evacuate.

Thank you

Look how warm the water is between Bahamas and Cuba. Irma will track directly over this area. I'm not sure how much more she will strengthen, but I don't see her weakening.

The way it looks to me is the center will be 30 miles either side of where the GFS has the center north of Miami right on the coast. You really can't take any chances since if the storm goes to the wests 30 miles, you will have catastrophic storm surge damage since lake okechobie (sp will come into play. 140 mph or so winds blowing east across the lake. Then of course the storm urge up the coast in the 10 to 12 ft range or so.

Now if the storm goes 30 miles to the east to the GFS position, the damage could come down to heavy to severe. The point is, anyone down there can not take any chances.

syosnow94 wrote:

No one should have waited this long especially if people had access to this site  I would argue once you get to 75 you're safe.  Safe as in your life which is all that matters.  Good luck to all.  

I agree with you on both counts. The good thing about 75 is that hooks west from Orlando, away from the east coast, and it also leads to more escape routes from there than 95 does. If you have food and water, you can survive a few days living on the side of the road. That 90 degrees/80% humidity though...

I heard that there are gas and water shortages as far north as central Georgia(!).

My cousins are riding it out in Boynton Beach, which is a bit south of West Palm Beach. Shutters are up, and they are hoping for the best

I think the 12z EURO actually wobbled west even more. Wow...unbelievable track.

Frank, what do you think for Monroe just outside charlotte?

Euro is devastating FL right now

mikeypizano wrote:Frank, what do you think for Monroe just outside charlotte?

High impact with high winds and heavy rain. Eye could pass just to its south and west. No need to evacuate.

All those counties along the east coast of FL are destroyed this EURO run because the eye tracks west of them. Surge, damaging winds, etc.

Miami's worst case scenario depicted on this latest EURO run. Wow.

Wow, the levees on the Lake could be destroyed based on that run.

Frank_Wx wrote:

If this were to verify, the west coast doesn't look any better than the east coast.

Im not buying the west wobble at this time. I wish I had time to explain. In short I believe the models are underestimating just how far south the trough actually is. If you look closely at the initializations of the various models, esp in the GOM, the steering flow does not match up with the obsevered Sat imagery. The entire NW 1/2 of the GOM has a ENE asterly flow where as the models, look at euro, thinks its actually moving WSW for this time frame. In addition the steering flow on models at initiation on and N of Cuba right now do not match with observation. This is likely occurring due to the inability to intialize the pressure at the actual pressure. This small but important feature "MAY" be the reson the actual track ends up 50-70 miles east of what the west wobble indicates.

sroc4 - what do you think about the NHC's comments below and their forecast track?

"There has been no change in the
guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core
of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very
close to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma."

WeatherBob wrote:sroc4 - what do you think about the NHC's comments below and their forecast track?

"There has been no change in the
guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core
of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very
close to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma."

My thoughts are listen to the NHC when preparing for this storm.  I am a mere enthusiast.  But when I see something I say something.  In my mind it makes sense so I will put it out there right or wrong.  In this case from the SE fla coast to about 50-75miles east is where my cone of uncertainty lies.

The next 6-12 hrs will be telling.  The euro had the center pass south of the islands I have circled and already on a more Westward tragectory.  If she passes over or N of them then the eastern track is more likely.  By the looks of the sat loop she will have to turn west pretty soon for that to verify.  

What an almost dire situation portrayed by the models- Jesus the Keys woudl be wiped off teh map and South Florida becomes part of the Atlantic. I think a compromise of EURO and GFS skirting the coast is the trajectory. Incredible we are going to see IF the euro and Ukie verify possibly the worst Hurricane to ever hit the US.

Co workers have many old parents in Boyton Beach, Boca Raton and Lake Worth - one guy is driving down to get them - I told him you HAVE TO LEAVE NOW!!! And bring a few cans of gasoline. The old geezers are going to hunker down - I hate to say it but they will be in an almost fatal situation by staying.

Anyway, very busy day at school today and back top school night.
Interesting that areas along the NC coast have volunteer evacs up.

EPS match EURO OP

EPS in agreement with OP

Frank,

My Aunt and Cousins live in Coral Gables. Their planning on staying. What's your thought?