Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM coming in a little west, nice band coming in too. Probably tropical storm force winds in that one

Actually for 06z Wed the NAM shifted significantly west, precip edge was in mass, now edge of outer reaches to NYC. And yes there is a prewtty heavy band of rain and if you look at 850mb winds there are some stronger winds in the vicinity of that band.  Strong winds get into eastern LI and CT (of course my parents get it pretty good, haha you move away from home and the good storms start to happen.

Look at the shift.

18z NAM



00z

AND LI does get a period of strong TS force winds if they can mix down. CT gets hit pretty good too.  Could be a fun morning commute Wed if this verified verbatim, we know it won't but anymore jog to the west and NYC and jersey shore are back in it, its ever so close as it is.

Yeah, I mean obviously this isn't something to write home about, but like rb said, it doesn't take much of a shift from models like UKMET, EURO, or NAM to give us tropical storm conditions at times. It's 3 days out and that NAM run for example, another jump like the one from 18z to 0z would be enough. These 3 are definitely on the western side of the NHC's cone with the GFS and CMC east

Sanchize06 wrote:Yeah, I mean obviously this isn't something to write home about, but like rb said, it doesn't take much of a shift from models like UKMET, EURO, or NAM to give us tropical storm conditions at times. It's 3 days out and that NAM run for example, another jump like the one from 18z to 0z would be enough. These 3 are definitely on the western side of the NHC's cone with the GFS and CMC east

I just hope whatever we get is Tues evening and not while I am at work so I can track and then it be out of here wed.  If the NAM were to verify rb would be spot on, even if CMC gFS verify he still gets kudos IMO. Lets see what GFS and CMC do tonight, I am guessing it may go west of 12z and 18z or stay status Quo.

NHC usually rides the Euro as it has done in the past but to me this I'd a bitnperplezing by following the tropical.models which the herd has come completely west and puts WHICH WAY JOSE 50 miles off our coast and slams the shores aND inland areas. Who knows what is right but it is interesting and as Alex pointed out 72 hours before Irma made landfall they had her going into SFLA eat coast still. 159 mile jog is literally nothing with these beasts. Need to look at 590mb and steering g current's as ell as the baraclonic set up.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Yeah, I mean obviously this isn't something to write home about, but like rb said, it doesn't take much of a shift from models like UKMET, EURO, or NAM to give us tropical storm conditions at times. It's 3 days out and that NAM run for example, another jump like the one from 18z to 0z would be enough. These 3 are definitely on the western side of the NHC's cone with the GFS and CMC east

I just hope whatever we get is Tues evening and not while I am at work so I can track and then it be out of here wed.  If the NAM were to verify rb would be spot on, even if CMC gFS verify he still gets kudos IMO. Lets see what GFS and CMC do tonight, I am guessing it may go west of 12z and 18z or stay status Quo.

The one thing I'll say is I'll take being in the EURO/UKMET camp over GFS/CMC any day haha

amugs wrote:NHC usually rides the Euro as it has done in the past but to me this I'd a bitnperplezing by following the tropical.models which the herd has come completely west and puts WHICH WAY JOSE 50 miles off our coast and slams the shores aND inland areas. Who knows what is right but it is interesting and as Alex pointed out 72 hours before Irma made landfall they had her going into SFLA eat coast still. 159 mile jog is literally nothing with these beasts. Need to look at 590mb and steering g current's as ell as the baraclonic set up.

Yeah I didn't understand the big jump east at 5pm. Their track is almost exactly like the EURO track usually, but they've seemed to go with the GFS and hurricane models

Sanchize06 wrote:

amugs wrote:NHC usually rides the Euro as it has done in the past but to me this I'd a bitnperplezing by following the tropical.models which the herd has come completely west and puts WHICH WAY JOSE 50 miles off our coast and slams the shores aND inland areas. Who knows what is right but it is interesting and as Alex pointed out 72 hours before Irma made landfall they had her going into SFLA eat coast still. 159 mile jog is literally nothing with these beasts. Need to look at 590mb and steering g current's as ell as the baraclonic set up.

Yeah I didn't understand the big jump east at 5pm. Their track is almost exactly like the EURO track usually, but they've seemed to go with the GFS and hurricane models

It actually jumped even further at 11pm, go look. The NHC cone changes drastically day to day, watch it come back west, lol

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

amugs wrote:NHC usually rides the Euro as it has done in the past but to me this I'd a bitnperplezing by following the tropical.models which the herd has come completely west and puts WHICH WAY JOSE 50 miles off our coast and slams the shores aND inland areas. Who knows what is right but it is interesting and as Alex pointed out 72 hours before Irma made landfall they had her going into SFLA eat coast still. 159 mile jog is literally nothing with these beasts. Need to look at 590mb and steering g current's as ell as the baraclonic set up.

Yeah I didn't understand the big jump east at 5pm. Their track is almost exactly like the EURO track usually, but they've seemed to go with the GFS and hurricane models

It actually jumped even further at 11pm, go look. The NHC cone changes drastically day to day, watch it come back west, lol

Yeah they have it SE of the benchmark, interesting

GFS slightly west thru hr 36

LOL GFS is a little west at hr 48.

GFS comes in slightly west, really not much of a difference. The GFS is so far east, it would have to be a big shift to make a difference

Cmc is also west

Ukie is into NJ

Ukie with this run?? Red flag or just a crazy run. Euro comes west then we go from thereal

It sees the block as much stronger is my hunch. I am hitting the hay and we'll see what is what in the morning.

amugs wrote:Ukie with this run?? Red flag or just a crazy run. Euro comes west then we go from thereal

Wow, wouldnt that be the coup, this model did nail Urma right? That would put most of NJ and NYC in the worst side.  Def skeptical on that abrupt turn you would think we would seen this previously.  tomorrow another day!

Jman, I am not seeing get a mechanism like a capture to do this or a strong block so who knows...

Ukie its eastern LI and then comes south and west with the low

EURO!!!!!!!

HOLY COW WHAT SHIFT WEST!!!

Euro shifted west and now looks like the Ukie

A lot of precip for NYC and coastal SNE

It's now the western-most piece of guidance along with the UKMET and SREFs. Unreal aha

And actually, the SREFs and CFSV2 went east at 21z and 18z, respectively. Talk about shuffling things around bahahaha

SREF are still imressive

Jose is still stalled out at 168 near NJ

Snow88 wrote:Jose is still stalled out at 168 near NJ

I know, and this reignites my fears for the east coast with the next one

Very impressive wind gusts