The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:52 pm

See the banter thread for get together tomorrow! Or you can hang here and be sad that it looks like another 3-4 weeks before we see any changes...

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:43 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:See the banter thread for get together tomorrow! Or you can hang here and be sad that it looks like another 3-4 weeks before we see any changes...  

wish I could make it we have a house full of family over..husbands side..hence me hiding for a few moments on my lap top...lol...have one for me or we can sync the time and I will join in here at home...xo guys!! and wait now 3 to 4 weeks I thought the second week of Jan???
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by aiannone on Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:02 pm

A reminder, Janet, Bill and I will be meeting for drinks tomorrow 12/30 at 2pm for drinks in the city. Here is a link to the thread that has the details. Hope people can make it!
http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t948-get-together-12-30-18-2-pm#142271
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by Guest on Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:04 pm

Huge changes and major pattern shift coming January 27th. 20??

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by HectorO on Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:24 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
billg315 wrote:So looks like 43* and rain in Times Square NYE. As someone who has been there more than once (regretfully) I would suggest that anyone who thinks standing in a packed Times Square for five hours in 43* rain to celebrate the new year is a good idea needs an intervention before Monday.
ha thanks not on my bucket list!! What is on my bucket list is:

Northern lights..has anyone gone to experience the northern lights..my husband has seen them in Iowa growing up..but I want to really experience them in 2019! any one have suggestions of locations they have visited. I am starting to research!!

I went to Iceland and saw them.

Incredible experience

if you have time one day can you tell me where you stayed and what time of year you went...hmmm did you go recently??..my memory is a mess these days..lol It is on my bucket list for next year but I need to coordinate when my son will be off from school. I was thinking the first week of November..they are off for teachers convention.

Further far north in Canada. Perhaps around the Quebec City region or a little further north. Canadian Rockies and Yellow Knife area as well.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:43 pm


Well I found the snow. It's on the other side of the globe. Damn you Putin!
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:17 pm

Sucks we are going to burn another week of winter next week. The Frick in MJO wave in phase 5 and then 6 is just killing us right now.
Once we get past this stage we hope the wave continues into 7 through 2 which are cold phases for Jan into Feb. 
There will be tremendous research and re-analysis as to what what wrong and a great lesson to learn from.
JB is saying the PAC Nino is a conadrum right now and the PAC JET extension is just overwhelming our pattern. 
This was to be buckled a week ago but has not and keeps reseveloping, very very frustrating. AAM, EAMT and other indiactors all pointed to a flip by Xmas but nothing , never came to fruition.
The best of the best are perplexed by this MJO development that has overwhelmed our pattern. The QBO that is westerly maybe partly to blame but you would think not to 220 days of no sunspots it should be way easterly.
JB is even perplexed by the latest and saying he is concerned. If this wite runs this gamet of poop I know there will be many here and on other boards that will question, and not understand the atmospheric happened of what went wrong.

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:59 am

amugs wrote:Sucks we are going to burn another week of winter next week. The Frick in MJO wave in phase 5 and then 6 is just killing us right now.
Once we get past this stage we hope the wave continues into 7 through 2 which are cold phases for Jan into Feb. 
There will be tremendous research and re-analysis as to what what wrong and a great lesson to learn from.
JB is saying the PAC Nino is a conadrum right now and the PAC JET extension is just overwhelming our pattern. 
This was to be buckled a week ago but has not and keeps reseveloping, very very frustrating. AAM, EAMT and other indiactors all pointed to a flip by Xmas but nothing , never came to fruition.
The best of the best are perplexed by this MJO development that has overwhelmed our pattern. The QBO that is westerly maybe partly to blame but you would think not to 220 days of no sunspots it should be way easterly.
JB is even perplexed by the latest and saying he is concerned. If this wite runs this gamet of poop I know there will be many here and on other boards that will question, and not understand the atmospheric happened of what went wrong.

I'm sure researchers will be studying this as you say mugs, to see what happened.From your explanation above, this is a major violation of what the modeling suggested a short while ago.My personal feelings of the systems that are used is that at this juncture, the mathematics and physics used to create the computer programs do not have a complete grip on what Mother Nature is going to deal us.Even the event that did come across for us up here in the HV on November 15 giving us 11 inches of snow and CPK 6 inches was totally blown by the SHORT RANGE forecasts.I watched Goldberg on November 14th at 6 PM and he was calling for a coating to a "slushy" inch in the City!That blown forecast wreaked havoc area wide when municipalities snow removal efforts were terrible resulting in multi hour delays for many commuters.I'm not throwing stones at the Meteorologists on this, just suggesting that much more has to be done to create better systems of forecasting.I am a big believer in mean reversion and this year I had a queasy feeling going into this winter that I would be seeing a LOT less snow after the amazing 84 inches up here last season.Not giving up hope as there are 3 solid months of snow time yet for the MJO to start moving its arse!
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:48 am

Deleted, completed below the drone pilots last post.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:10 am; edited 3 times in total
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by mikeypizano on Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:50 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I was just checking for additional scapegoats and just realized Math created his distasteful December poll on December 15th, which of course coincides with the exact date that December became November and winter ended in our area before it began.

The King of the Warmacists wins again, as if he didn't know what he was bout to do. Then right after he creates the poll he tells us how the MJO will stay in phase 5, crushing the hopes of everyone on this board.

Forget Hector and Damians snow blowers, there's your guilty party, and right after his posts he conveniently disappears for two weeks.

Don't be jealous because he did what you couldn't... He was right, you were wrong, get over it bud! Ya want a cookie?

Laughing Just messing with ya Laughing
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:09 am

I was just checking for additional scapegoats and just realized Math created his distasteful December poll on December 15th, which of course coincides with the exact date that December became November and winter ended in our area before it began.

The King of the Warmacists wins again, as if he didn't know what he was bout to do. Then right after he creates the poll he tells us how the MJO will stay in phase 5, crushing the hopes of many on this board.

Of course the 9 out of 16 that voted for a torch like, worst month ever, April in December, (2015), over a cold and dry December (1989) played right into his hands. Those individuals should be banned from all forums except the "Non Weather Banter forum" also know as the Bermuda triangle of NJSWF. This is where few enter but even fewer ever leave.

Forget Hector and Damians snow blowers, there's your guilty party, and right after his posts he conveniently disappears for two weeks. Would someone in authority please delete that thread, and I guarantee winter will return.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:16 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I was just checking for additional scapegoats and just realized Math created his distasteful December poll on December 15th, which of course coincides with the exact date that December became November and winter ended in our area before it began.

The King of the Warmacists wins again, as if he didn't know what he was bout to do. Then right after he creates the poll he tells us how the MJO will stay in phase 5, crushing the hopes of many on this board.

Of course the 9 out of 16 that voted for a torch like, worst month ever, April in December, (2015), over a cold and dry December (1989) played right into his hands. Those individuals should be banned from all forums except the "Non Weather Banter forum" also know as the Bermuda triangle of NJSWF. This is where few enter but even fewer ever leave.

Forget Hector and Damians snow blowers, there's your guilty party, and right after his posts he conveniently disappears for two weeks. Would someone in authority please delete that thread, and I guarantee winter will return.

lol! lol! lol!

I much prefer exile to the OTI government document thread !!!

Meanwhile, here is a tribute to Math23X7, the one who stole winter!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hj3U18FHgQ

We are at Defcon 10 desperation levels now.....deleting threads will push the MJO to 7 and 8,LOL
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:21 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I was just checking for additional scapegoats and just realized Math created his distasteful December poll on December 15th, which of course coincides with the exact date that December became November and winter ended in our area before it began.

The King of the Warmacists wins again, as if he didn't know what he was bout to do. Then right after he creates the poll he tells us how the MJO will stay in phase 5, crushing the hopes of many on this board.

Of course the 9 out of 16 that voted for a torch like, worst month ever, April in December, (2015), over a cold and dry December (1989) played right into his hands. Those individuals should be banned from all forums except the "Non Weather Banter forum" also know as the Bermuda triangle of NJSWF. This is where few enter but even fewer ever leave.

Forget Hector and Damians snow blowers, there's your guilty party, and right after his posts he conveniently disappears for two weeks. Would someone in authority please delete that thread, and I guarantee winter will return.

lol! lol! lol!

I much prefer exile to the OTI government document thread !!!

Meanwhile, here is a tribute to Math23X7, the one who stole winter!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hj3U18FHgQ

We are at Defcon 10 desperation levels now.....deleting threads will push the MJO to 7 and 8,LOL

lol! lol! lol! lol! Love it Doc.

If we can't have significant snow, significant humor is a good substitute.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by Wheezer on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:30 am

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Sucks we are going to burn another week of winter next week. The Frick in MJO wave in phase 5 and then 6 is just killing us right now.
Once we get past this stage we hope the wave continues into 7 through 2 which are cold phases for Jan into Feb. 
There will be tremendous research and re-analysis as to what what wrong and a great lesson to learn from.
JB is saying the PAC Nino is a conadrum right now and the PAC JET extension is just overwhelming our pattern. 
This was to be buckled a week ago but has not and keeps reseveloping, very very frustrating. AAM, EAMT and other indiactors all pointed to a flip by Xmas but nothing , never came to fruition.
The best of the best are perplexed by this MJO development that has overwhelmed our pattern. The QBO that is westerly maybe partly to blame but you would think not to 220 days of no sunspots it should be way easterly.
JB is even perplexed by the latest and saying he is concerned. If this wite runs this gamet of poop I know there will be many here and on other boards that will question, and not understand the atmospheric happened of what went wrong.

I'm sure researchers will be studying this as you say mugs, to see what happened.From your explanation above, this is a major violation of what the modeling suggested a short while ago.My personal feelings of the systems that are used is that at this juncture, the mathematics and physics used to create the computer programs do not have a complete grip on what Mother Nature is going to deal us.Even the event that did come across for us up here in the HV on November 15 giving us 11 inches of snow and CPK 6 inches was totally blown by the SHORT RANGE forecasts.I watched Goldberg on November 14th at 6 PM and he was calling for a coating to a "slushy" inch in the City!That blown forecast wreaked havoc area wide when municipalities snow removal efforts were terrible resulting in multi hour delays for many commuters.I'm not throwing stones at the Meteorologists on this, just suggesting that much more has to be done to create better systems of forecasting.I am a big believer in mean reversion and this year I had a queasy feeling going into this winter that I would be seeing a LOT less snow after the amazing 84 inches up here last season.Not giving up hope as there are 3 solid months of snow time yet for the MJO to start moving its arse!

I'm sure the Elite group of forecasters will realize why things didn't go as planned, and they'll probably be saying that they should have seen it coming, whatever the reason . And that , unfortunately will be true. Information overload, todays Mets are totally dependent on the models. Whatever the Pied Piper Elites forecast is, the rest blindly follow without much resistance . Give me Met pre 1990 with half the toys of today and I'll blindly follow them.
Give me a Met pre 1990 with the toys of today .

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by mikeypizano on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:57 am

Personally I don't want huge storms, give me a bunch of clippers!
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:41 am

Mikey’s post raises the old question (and since we have no real snow might as well talk about hypothetical snow): Would you rather have:
1.) three major snowstorms, each totaling 12-24” area wide, but spread out a month apart, one in Jan., one in Feb and one in March, with generally mild, quiet weather in between;
OR
2.) A snow event every week from Jan to mid March with generally cold weather throughout, but each event is only 4-6” area-wide?
In the end your total snowfall is roughly 60” either way. Discuss.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:42 am

If you refuse to choose you get 55* and rain all winter. Twisted Evil
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:49 am

billg315 wrote:Mikey’s post raises the old question (and since we have no real snow might as well talk about hypothetical snow): Would you rather have:
1.) three major snowstorms, each totaling 12-24” area wide, but spread out a month apart, one in Jan., one in Feb and one in March, with generally mild, quiet weather in between;
OR
2.)  A snow event every week from Jan to mid March with generally cold weather throughout, but each event is only 4-6” area-wide?
In the end your total snowfall is roughly 60” either way. Discuss.

Well, if it's guaranteed that a ten year run will feature 60 plus inches every year, then I would choose to have scenario1 one year, and scenario 2 the following for every year of a ten year stretch.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by mikeypizano on Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:52 am

billg315 wrote:
2.)  A snow event every week from Jan to mid March with generally cold weather throughout, but each event is only 4-6” area-wide?
In the end your total snowfall is roughly 60” either way. Discuss.

Lets say you in my shoes... You do driveways...

Would you rather have only 3 jobs that pay more each and work harder? Or would you rather a bunch of easy jobs that pay a bit less each????
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:26 pm

docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Mikey’s post raises the old question (and since we have no real snow might as well talk about hypothetical snow): Would you rather have:
1.) three major snowstorms, each totaling 12-24” area wide, but spread out a month apart, one in Jan., one in Feb and one in March, with generally mild, quiet weather in between;
OR
2.)  A snow event every week from Jan to mid March with generally cold weather throughout, but each event is only 4-6” area-wide?
In the end your total snowfall is roughly 60” either way. Discuss.

Well, if it's guaranteed that a ten year run will feature 60 plus inches every year, then I would choose to have scenario1 one year, and scenario  2 the following for every year of a ten year stretch.

Haha. I think this is cheating. But I like your thinking so I’ll go with it. Laughing
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by Guest on Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:57 pm

Easily a bunch of 4-6” events and sustainable cold To choose otherwise
Is
Silly.

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by brownie on Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:40 pm

I would rather have frequent 4-6 inch events and sustained cold.  This way the shoveling is manageable and the ground stays snow covered, and it feels like winter when it’s supposed to feel like winter.

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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Easily a bunch of 4-6” events and sustainable cold To choose otherwise
Is
Silly.

My thinking exactly.

If you choose anything other than number one, you're not a winter lover, you're just a lover of single event big snows. No true winter lover would pick number two. A closet Warmacist would pick two, and then of course wish for a quick warm up after the big snow and hope it all melts away. Such a sick, demented, and deplorable way to think.

There's nothing even to discuss.

brownie wrote:I would rather have frequent 4-6 inch events and sustained cold.  This way the shoveling is manageable and the ground stays snow covered, and it feels like winter when it’s supposed to feel like winter.

Just saw Brownies post above mine. Probably one of the most astute and succinct posts on this subject, and should be required reading. Especially for people that voted Dec 2015 in Mikes poll, and selection 2 in Billg's poll.
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:42 pm

To all giving Mikey Props for “nailing the pattern”. Him nailing the pattern is like the sun shining on a dogs ass. It’s bound to happen once in awhile. The only thing he deserves credit for is stating somewhat of the obvious. Yes if the MJO didn’t get out of the warm phases the pattern would be in trouble. That’s like saying if the king had tits he’d be queen. Now a days that totally plausible. And I have no problem with that if that’s your choice.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:43 pm

LOL, I have seen enough two for a nickle 4 to 6 inch events since 1960 and .although nice to see, pale in comparison to the 27 inch snowstorm we had last march up here in the HV.At my age of 68, I'm rounding the 3/4 turn and want to see as many 20 plus inch snowstorms as I can.If that means option 2 every other year after a prior year of 4 to 6 inchers with constant snowpack, so be it,LOL.Of course , the most ideal winters are ones like 1960-1961 and 1995-1996 featuring extended snowpack, many 4 to 6 inch storms and a huge 20 plus inch snowstorm/blizzard.Unfortunately, billg did not include that as option 3 and I am totally surprised that the ones screaming "warmacist" did not mention the most desirable winter option! Tsk TskTsk....
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