The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

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Post by jimv45 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:15 pm

People are to sensitive on here!! Maybe your type of entertainment is to read some people complaining everytime things don't go there way. For me and I am sure others its getting out of hand, to joke about it is one thing all for that after some misses its good to let it out but every darn time bitching crying enough.

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Post by HectorO on Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:21 pm

jimv45 wrote:People are to sensitive on here!!  Maybe your type of entertainment is to read some people complaining  everytime things don't go there way. For me and I am sure others its getting out of hand, to joke about it is one thing all for that after some misses its good to let it out but every darn time bitching crying enough.

Let it out!!!! LOL, No one on here has taken any personal jabs at anyone which is why this thread is great. Perhaps there should be a warning in front of it.
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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:26 pm

Bill I do get your sentiment and understand/respect your feelings. I have led the complaining about the weather barrage the past few weeks. (Hence Scott posting a crybaby picture of me which I found funny)I’ve tried to do so respectfully without attacking anyone personally. All in good fun on my end anyway.

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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:43 pm

Oh sure, the bickering stops now that I'm halfway through an essay's worth of typing on stuff that people already know about message boards.

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Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:32 pm

billg315 wrote:Oh what a lovely discussion you guys are having. So clever and witty.

Gee, what a great weather forecasting/discussion site this would be if the people who put so much time and effort into the forecasting, discussion and education here simply said, "well since there are no certainties in weather we should just post no forecasts, predictions, speculations, or any such discussions of future weather patterns. We'll just sit here and post what the weather outside is at this moment."

Guess what? You don't need a weather forum for that -- its called your current weather phone app. Instead of logging in here, log in there. Bingo! No more disappointment. No more need to "roll eyes!"

It seems to me, if you don't respect the people on here who post these discussions and forecasts -- and frankly some of the commentary here in the past couple of days (particularly just above this) seems to have moved from just being unhappy with the weather, toward criticism/sarcasm about the forecasts and by extension the forecasters on here -- then why are you here?  You can just open the weather app on your phone and see what the weather is. Or look out your window? You really don't need this site if the only reason you are here is to post about how you are "rolling your eyes" at the forecasts that are posted.

This is a forum for people who enjoy the science of weather forecasting to discuss weather trends and patterns, learn about the weather, and to participate in weather forecasting.  That means people will post ideas that will sometimes not pan out. Sometimes they will pan out. Sometimes they will need to be adjusted as the pattern/systems progress. That is precisely what makes it an interesting science.

If that type of uncertainty is NOT of interest to you, then truthfully -- and I mean this respectfully -- this is not the place for you.  I can save you all a lot of heartache here with this one fact: IF YOU WANT ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY IN WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT ONE, TWO, THREE WEEKS, A WEATHER FORECASTING SITE (ANY weather forecasting site) IS NOT FOR YOU!!!!!! Simply logout, don't come back, and you will be more peaceful and happy.

I find the tenor of the discussion here extremely disrespectful to people like Frank, Scott, Al, Rb, and others who for no compensation, spend a lot of time posting their thoughts and forecasts, and KNOWLEDGE, for us to digest, discuss, and maybe even disagree with -- RESPECTFULLY.  It's one thing to come one here and be unhappy with the weather pattern. That is perfectly fine. But if the purpose of your post is to complain that a weather forecast hasn't panned out exactly as expected, I just don't get the point.

I try really hard to not respond to these types of things, but it just amazes me that there are people on a WEATHER site griping about forecasts being adjusted or changed. THIS ENTIRE SCIENCE IS BASED AROUND THINGS CONSTANTLY CHANGING AND EVOLVING. It's called the ATMOSPHERE! If you want certainty go to a website where they do simple math equations all day. Something like this: "I predict if you add two complaints to the two complaints already posted, you'll have four complaints"!!!! See, that's a prediction that is CERTAIN to be true.



I think you should be in my shoes... NO SNOW MEANS NO WORK!

I am saying it, and you can ban me if you want...

IF ITS NOT GOING TO SNOW THEN MIGHT AS WELL BRING ON SPRING!
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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:48 pm

Hector, whatever.
Mikey, I get your position 100%. No snow means no work. If that’s your livelihood I see the frustration. But if the forecasters on here said we’d definitely have NO snow in December, and were right, as opposed to saying there would be several opportunities for snow and were wrong, how would that change your predicament? Seems to me either way you’re in the same spot.
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Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:50 pm

billg315 wrote:Hector, whatever.
Mikey, I get your position 100%. No snow means no work. If that’s your livelihood I see the frustration. But if the forecasters on here said we’d definitely have NO snow in December, and were right, as opposed to saying there would be several opportunities for snow and were wrong, how would that change your predicament? Seems to me either way you’re in the same spot.

No, my problem isn't with them, my problem is these models are garbage! They show a storm, and its either rain or nothing. It gets warm, it rains! It gets cold? NOTHING! Frank and the others just interpret the models, they don't control the weather, so I can't blame them.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:58 pm

Exactly. And I appreciate you making the distinction. And if people were simply voicing frustration with the weather pattern so be it. It’s taking pot-shots at guys working hard to interpret the data I don’t like.
I don’t even try to do long range forecasting because it’s above my skill level (hence why anyone suggesting I’M thin skinned for raising this issue is missing the point - how can I be thin skinned about something I’m not involved in?) but I enjoy reading the analysis and won’t criticize someone if their projections don’t pan out exactly right.
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Post by mikeypizano on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:59 pm

billg315 wrote:Exactly. And I appreciate you making the distinction. And if people were simply voicing frustration with the weather pattern so be it. It’s taking pot-shots at guys working hard to interpret the data I don’t like.
I don’t even try to do long range forecasting because it’s above my skill level (hence why anyone suggesting I’M thin skinned for raising this issue is missing the point - how can I be thin skinned about something I’m not involved in?) but I enjoy reading the analysis and won’t criticize someone if their projections don’t pan out exactly right.

My opinion on long range forecasts is to just flush the toilet lol
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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:05 pm

Well there are people who are of that opinion for sure. But I have seen some successes in long range analysis so I enjoy reading them and giving them some thought - even without betting the farm on the outcome being right or wrong.
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Post by HectorO on Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:58 pm

Mikey is right. When we see it, we'll believe it. Regardless of what the MJO, the GFS, the ABC or XYZ predict. when it's actually storming and coming down, is when it counts. I respect those who forecast because it's tough, nothing is for certain and things change on an hourly basis. This thread was made for those to vent such as the banter thread was. Take a deep breath.
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Post by Guest on Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:12 pm

At the risk of sounding contrarian, I'm on the models' side here. The fact that an ensemble run exists at all points to the admitted uncertainty in even the best forecasting systems. Have the long range forecasts been off lately? To some degree. But it wasn't so long ago that long range forecasting let people along the coast know that Sandy was coming. You guys would know better than me just how much damage was prevented by people being able to prepare for it rather than the proverbial "just looking out the window".

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Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:16 pm

Since Festivus has officially started, I'd like to air my grievance in a straightforward way and hopefully see the ‘situation’ improve.

My grievance is that for 3 seasons, and seemingly the more so recently, I have been basically shut out from the community part of this forum. Yeah, I’ve been accepted as a user and I’m allowed to post at will, but for me posting here almost always leads to being ignored or given some type of nuisance, bot-like response (Docstox and Billg notable exceptions).

So, while I guess it would be hard for me to argue that I’m not claiming to be ‘hurt’ this, I promise I’m not ‘butt-hurt’ by this. I just would like for it to change. Basically…

I want in!

Please?

I just posted my new member introduction (linked below if interested), something I probably should have done when I first signed up. It’s short and simple, and I hope it helps to resolve my grievance in the true nature of Festivus…I think.

Sincerely,

Scott
(SENJ is a stupid acronym for Southeast New Jersey)

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1p175-introductions#142117

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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:36 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Since Festivus has officially started, I'd like to air my grievance in a straightforward way and hopefully see the ‘situation’ improve.

My grievance is that for 3 seasons, and seemingly the more so recently, I have been basically shut out from the community part of this forum. Yeah, I’ve been accepted as a user and I’m allowed to post at will, but for me posting here almost always leads to being ignored or given some type of nuisance, bot-like response (Docstox and Billg notable exceptions).

So, while I guess it would be hard for me to argue that I’m not claiming to be ‘hurt’ this, I promise I’m not ‘butt-hurt’ by this. I just would like for it to change. Basically…

I want in!

Please?

I just posted my new member introduction (linked below if interested), something I probably should have done when I first signed up. It’s short and simple, and I hope it helps to resolve my grievance in the true nature of Festivus…I think.

Sincerely,

Scott
(SENJ is a stupid acronym for Southeast New Jersey)

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1p175-introductions#142117

Scott, this post is far more troubling to me than the complaints, griping and passive aggressive criticism of our forecasters on here addressed above. Because if people get some satisfaction out of posting that stuff, they can knock their socks off with it I suppose, but I hate hearing someone say they feel left out of the community here in some way when they’re trying to be a contributing member. So hopefully that situation does not persist. I’m glad you’re here and I’m glad this site plays a role in your sharing your love of weather with your kids.
I do know that sometimes our further South Jersey posters could feel a bit left out because there is so much discussion of what is/will happen North of I-195 in NJ/NY. That really is just a by-product of that being where the bulk of our posters live. But I am sensitive to it because I lived for quite awhile in South Jersey before moving north, and I still spend many weekends at the South Jersey shore. So hopefully with that in mind I (we) can make an effort to make sure we’re not taking you’re area for granted in our discussions.
In any event, glad you’re here and look forward to chatting about some good snowstorms with you as the winter progresses. And the winter will, ahem, progress.
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:04 am

I give the long range crew using the current modeling systems a lot of credit for the time spent in analyzing them and trying to come up with a pattern for the entire winter or for just a few days out.Weather is an extremely variable entity and my feeling is the current mathematical systems used to create the models have a long way to go.I would compare it to our Space program in the mid to late 1950's, some rockets getting off the pad but a lot blowing up immediately after launching.I'm sure the bugs will be worked out eventually, but we all would be advised to do what Bill Evans had said long ago on the old Channel 7 Board, use modeling as a GUIDE.Deep down I was expecting a sub par winter because of the incredible one we had up here in the HV last winter, 84 inches of snow.So far, the pattern is all storms cutting and we get warmth and rain.I'm hoping for a change but accept what is and accept what happens.Guess that's how you get when you are a grey "old head",LOL.I want to thank all our long range crew for reporting on the modeling and want to offer a bit of hope to all of us who are disappointed.....there are 3 solid months of good snow time still available!!!!
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Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:11 am

I appreciate your thoughts Bill. To quickly clarify:

“I do know that sometimes our further South Jersey posters could feel a bit left out”
Yes, this happens, but the pro-northern bias has nothing to do with my concerns. The IMBY mentality, even in forecasting, is almost a charming offshoot of the regional rivalries (NYC, LI, NWNJ/NEPA, LHV, Shore). I don’t mind fighting to drag the southern axis of focus down here. Plus we got Skins down here. When it’s crunch time, he makes sure his Shore crew is taken care of!

“feel left out of the community here in some way when they’re trying to be a contributing member.”
This is it. 100%. It seems from the join dates that most of the regular posters have known each other on some level for many years. And very honestly, to me, it feels clique-ey in here. I’ve seen some people get ‘let in’ pretty quickly, but it’s sure not happening for me. I’m sure it’s not intentional, but whatever, I’m on the outside, face and both hands pressed against the window.

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:36 am

Off to Southern FL for a few days. Supposed to be in low 80's for most of the trip.

This tough pattern definitely had a lot more staying power than thought. But as a consolation i believe BOX only has officially recorded .1" to date. No Miller B's yet!

I'm with Doc on expectations. We still may get ours this year, but as long as expectations are kept on the lower side it won't be too disappointing if we don't.

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:58 am

SENJsnowman wrote:I appreciate your thoughts Bill. To quickly clarify:

“I do know that sometimes our further South Jersey posters could feel a bit left out”
Yes, this happens, but the pro-northern bias has nothing to do with my concerns. The IMBY mentality, even in forecasting, is almost a charming offshoot of the regional rivalries (NYC, LI, NWNJ/NEPA, LHV, Shore). I don’t mind fighting to drag the southern axis of focus down here. Plus we got Skins down here. When it’s crunch time, he makes sure his Shore crew is taken care of!

“feel left out of the community here in some way when they’re trying to be a contributing member.”
This is it. 100%. It seems from the join dates that most of the regular posters have known each other on some level for many years. And very honestly, to me, it feels clique-ey in here. I’ve seen some people get ‘let in’ pretty quickly, but it’s sure not happening for me. I’m sure it’s not intentional, but whatever, I’m on the outside, face and both hands pressed against the window.

Well now wait just a minute here, buddy......I can think of multiple storms where us "northerners" were on the outside looking in; or shall I say, on the north side sucking virga (yup, I used that dreaded "v" word lol), while you guys cashed in tremendously in both seasons and storms alike :p sure some of us might have been a bit jealous, and yeah, we had to stop CP from re-enacting a northern version of Sherman's March brought about by his pure rage and frustration during a couple seasons and events that brought the goods to you guys, but for the most part we do enjoy seeing every region cashing in on snowfall, even if it means we personally miss out lmao (sorry CP, but I know you were close a couple of times ahaha) But in all honesty, you should never, EVER feel left out here or elsewhere. Yeah, most of our posters do reside north of 295, but I know even if I don't cash in on the snowfall and you guys do, I still track it and try to offer my best thoughts (as able), and get excited to see the aftermath through the photos that you all post, as do a lot of our other folks on here. That's what we really live for; the tracking. Anything on top of that is a bonus. But please, don't feel like an outsider here. NOBODY should feel that way, and if I/we have made you feel that way, I think I can speak for most of the "senior" members here when I say that I/we sincerely apologize for that, and will make a concentrated effort on resolving this issue not only for you, but for any/everybody else who feels similarly. That's not what this place is about; AT ALL. As you surmised, many of us have "known" each other, and have been posting with each other now for a decade, or even longer (for me personally, this February will be a decade of knowing Scott (sroc), Frank, and Mugsy, with Al(gae), Doc, CP, and Tom (NJweatherguy, speaking of, haven't seen him a long while, hope everything is ok) not far behind). If I've forgotten any others from the old 7online board, please feel free to publicly tar and feather me lol As I just stated, many of us were involved with a weather board before Frank created this one in response a clear rift that developed there, and has since led that board to become defunct. Due to our experiences there, we do try our best to prevent that from happening here, as our goal is to foster more of a family-like atmosphere, not just some random chat board with people who just enjoy stirring the proverbial pot. So by all means, post away! Add your content, questions, concerns, whatever; it all fosters discussion. Don't ever be afraid to ask a question - it may take us a little time to respond sometimes (like me, I am often quite busy for stretches of time, but post when I can), but we will absolutely try to answer it as long as somebody doesn't get to it first. Secondly, if you disagree with something somebody says (or forecasts), totally fine!! All we ask is to do so respectfully, and if you can support your stance with particular observations, facts, or model data, by all means add it in! We are not afraid of being challenged, as sometimes we get blinded by our own insight (guilty as charged lol) and the only way to make us realize that is to say "Hey, you're saying 'A, B, C', but so far we have 'X, Y, Z'". We're all here to talk about the weather, whether it's good, bad, white or wet, so we might as well make it interesting and enjoy the conversation; whatever it may be Smile

Bit of a disclaimer: Syosnow is excluded from the above.....he's out in the middle of nowhere, Long Island, where we just don't give a rip lol! lol! nahhhh jk buddy, we love you too lmaoooo even IF you are the proclaimed Snow Capital of NJ Strong.........

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Post by Guest on Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am

THIS WEATHER SUUUUUUUUUUUUXCCCCCKKKKKSSSS. AND THE LR COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST WHATEVER THE EF YOU CALL THEM SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED. USELESS. ABSOLUTELY I COULD GUESS BETTER

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Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:58 am

I think I will go fly my drones today...
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Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:50 am

RB, I greatly appreciate you weighing in and definitely want to follow up on the two main points: the N-S dynamic and the community dynamic. But, I got a busy day ahead, so I’ll get to that tonite.

In the meantime, I’ll just throw in that it looks like you left a couple of key ladies off that list of long-timers. If Mom and Zoo catch sight of that, tarred and feathered might be the least of your worries!

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:36 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Since Festivus has officially started, I'd like to air my grievance in a straightforward way and hopefully see the ‘situation’ improve.

My grievance is that for 3 seasons, and seemingly the more so recently, I have been basically shut out from the community part of this forum. Yeah, I’ve been accepted as a user and I’m allowed to post at will, but for me posting here almost always leads to being ignored or given some type of nuisance, bot-like response (Docstox and Billg notable exceptions).

So, while I guess it would be hard for me to argue that I’m not claiming to be ‘hurt’ this, I promise I’m not ‘butt-hurt’ by this. I just would like for it to change. Basically…

I want in!

Please?

I just posted my new member introduction (linked below if interested), something I probably should have done when I first signed up. It’s short and simple, and I hope it helps to resolve my grievance in the true nature of Festivus…I think.

Sincerely,

Scott
(SENJ is a stupid acronym for Southeast New Jersey)

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1p175-introductions#142117

I love the content of the post Scott..lol. Welcome. I responded in the other thread as well. Anyway my private life has me extremely busy so I don't have time to respond to alot of the nonsense in this thread nor do I care much any more. It happens every year. We start talking about the changes that occur. Every year it is mentioned that a delay is likely and the exact timing of what we think vs what actually happens may be different. The projections of the what and when are always subject to change as things evolve; yet the knuckle heads who come out of the woodwork to simply to stir the pot only hear what they want to hear and try to call something a failure when in reality it is more accurate to call it a miscalculation on the timing or strength of certain aspects. Guys like myself, and I know I can speak for Frank, and Ray, dont simply look at models to dictate what we think will happen in the long range. Its a part of it but not the only part of it. I do not simply regurgitate what the models are saying. Those in the know know that we will have our time and the individuals who only come out of the woodwork to point out the failures will crawl back into their cracks and crevices and wont say squat. This pattern change that is coming is not a matter of if; but rather a matter of when. Again for many of the knuckle heads snow in their backyard is the only thing used as a measurement of success or accuracy to LR forecasting. Silly. But even that is coming. Mikey P. With all do respect buddy, instead of flying your drone today, how about you get out there and fill out some job applications?

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:46 pm

This winter weather pattern has been one a shear disappointment so far. Most pro's and LR indicators were showing a cold and stormy Dec back in November and even early Dec. John H and many others were calling for a period from mid Dec through Mid Jan to be rocking, then again from Before xmass/right after until mid/late Jan to be teh time frame now its from mid Jan. No one saw this evolution if the MJO that is destructively interfering with our sensible weather. The warm blob/+PDO in the EPAC has not been a major driver AT ALL even minor. Cutter after cutter and the thoughts that these would help the pattern have only hurt the pattern. We'll have punted 1/2 the winter by the time these changes are to take place - 2nd half winters are okay IMO not stellar as we have sun angle that starts to begin playing its hand as we move towards spring.
If I had to grade this winter so far I'd give it a D, many would give it an F I am sure but I have had 10 wintry precipitations so far amount to 8" of white gold - 7.8* in November.
Thank God I have been busy and just basically waiting on the sideline frustrated as anything adn most of you are.
For Next winter I hope we have three VEI Explosions aorund the world in August and September that bring us a winter like the 1814-16 time frame.
We have tried and the weather is what it will be and many head fakes and none fulfillment has occurred in a negative. Hoping the second half goes the other way.

See ya'll next year to be honest - cuter then another one - bite me!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig on Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:48 pm

It did not take my poop emoji. It was completely blank.
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Post by Guest on Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:31 pm

Amugs I’m copying this from your post because this is the issue I have so far and the reason for my frustration

Most pro's and LR indicators were showing a cold and stormy Dec back in November and even early Dec. John H and many others were calling for a period from mid Dec through Mid Jan to be rocking, then again from Before xmass/right after until mid/late Jan to be teh time frame now its from mid Jan. No one saw this evolution if the MJO that is destructively interfering with our sensible weather. The warm blob/+PDO in the EPAC has not been a major driver AT ALL even minor. Cutter after cutter and the thoughts that these would help the pattern have only hurt the pattern. We'll have punted 1/2 the winter by the time thes

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