Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

[sroc4]

GFS back to rain in Caribou ME for next week.  That would suck, but must be prepared for it.  Heights pointing to the North Pole.  

This is a great post but probably belongs in the LR thread. Id like to respond to it but Ill quote you over there and respond to it there.

[Grselig]

Here is the current total snow fall for the season through Feb 4th.  As you can see the storm track has been a hair N&W relative to he last 6 seasons to this point. You can see the 1-2 feet zone is really not that far off relatively speaking.  If the 1-2 foot line were down to the coast, 35-50miles maybe, im pretty sure most individuals along the coastal plain would be happy as of Feb 4th with all of Feb and March on the way.  I stress most because there are some people who you just cant please and don't seem to want to be happy no matter what.  Of course if your an IMBY kind of individual it might as well be a million miles away.  Certainly more than enough reason to continually pout, moan, bitch complain...over and over and over......AND OVER (just in case people didn't know or perhaps forgot how one felt)

I'm at about 17" for the season and it doesn't do much for me.  The periodicity of the snowfalls is probably one of the worst I can remember and even when it does snow it doesn't last too long.  Those are two heavily weighted factors that I judge winter on.  But to each his own on their judgments...

Hey I hear you heehaw. I dont know what your seasonal avg is but how it is achieved, duration of snow pack, all that stuff is of course in the eye of the beholder.  That said My point today is very simply stated this:

Who really cares right?  In the grand scheme of life does it really matter?  How's your best friend? How's your parents?  Hows your husband or wife?  I love winter and hope for snow as much as anyone else.   If snow doesn't come or if the snow comes and melts too fast for my ideal scenario well that sucks, but Ill get over it.  I simply don't understand why people want to cont to beat the same drum on how awful the winter is.  Its like NO SHIT Sherlock.  Why do people feel the need to constantly over and over again express how negative something is when we all feel the same way.  My mother always used to say if you don't have anything positive to say don't say anything at all.  Wait for something that you can be positive about and then join the conversation for negative people who complain about the negative things will more often than not achieve negative results. Positive people who think positive about the negative things are the ones who will ultimately succeed.  

. Wise words! Its the weather. Its not life or death or things that truly matter. (unless you are outside in the cold, flooding, etc and it becomes dangerous).

[RJB8525]

[docstox12]

Even if this winter busts you youngsters under 50 have many many more great winters ahead of you.I'm 68 and have experienced so many great ones and when you all get to my point in life, you will have many as well.Since it's such a long stretch from mid April to mid October without snow chances,I'm still not abandoning ship until late March.Maybe March could be like last year where up in CP Land we got over 50 inches as he has said only once or twice,LOL.

[mikeypizano]

Even if this winter busts you youngsters under 50 have many many more great winters ahead of you.I'm 68 and have experienced so many great ones and when you all get to my point in life, you will have many as well.Since it's such a long stretch from mid April to mid October without snow chances,I'm still not abandoning ship until late March.Maybe March could be like last year where up in CP Land we got over 50 inches as he has said only once or twice,LOL.

I got screwed on all but the first of those.

[heehaw453]

Here is the current total snow fall for the season through Feb 4th.  As you can see the storm track has been a hair N&W relative to he last 6 seasons to this point. You can see the 1-2 feet zone is really not that far off relatively speaking.  If the 1-2 foot line were down to the coast, 35-50miles maybe, im pretty sure most individuals along the coastal plain would be happy as of Feb 4th with all of Feb and March on the way.  I stress most because there are some people who you just cant please and don't seem to want to be happy no matter what.  Of course if your an IMBY kind of individual it might as well be a million miles away.  Certainly more than enough reason to continually pout, moan, bitch complain...over and over and over......AND OVER (just in case people didn't know or perhaps forgot how one felt)

I'm at about 17" for the season and it doesn't do much for me.  The periodicity of the snowfalls is probably one of the worst I can remember and even when it does snow it doesn't last too long.  Those are two heavily weighted factors that I judge winter on.  But to each his own on their judgments...

Hey I hear you heehaw. I dont know what your seasonal avg is but how it is achieved, duration of snow pack, all that stuff is of course in the eye of the beholder.  That said My point today is very simply stated this:

Who really cares right?  In the grand scheme of life does it really matter?  How's your best friend? How's your parents?  Hows your husband or wife?  I love winter and hope for snow as much as anyone else.   If snow doesn't come or if the snow comes and melts too fast for my ideal scenario well that sucks, but Ill get over it.  I simply don't understand why people want to cont to beat the same drum on how awful the winter is.  Its like NO SHIT Sherlock.  Why do people feel the need to constantly over and over again express how negative something is when we all feel the same way.  My mother always used to say if you don't have anything positive to say don't say anything at all.  Wait for something that you can be positive about and then join the conversation for negative people who complain about the negative things will more often than not achieve negative results. Positive people who think positive about the negative things are the ones who will ultimately succeed.  

Totally agree and believe you me, I'm old enough to appreciate a good winter and seen enough bad ones not to get that upset over it.  But in all honesty people are going to vent frustration and I think that is healthy as long as it's not misdirected or personal.  Meteorology is a very inexact science that is still in its infancy and nobody is gonna get it right all the time...

[nutleyblizzard]

Day 7 18z Para Blizzard. I can dream can't I?

[amugs]

^^^^^^^^^^^Happy Hour FV3 run - must be pretty happy !!

[billg315]

One thing to keep in mind is that across the continental U.S. it is rare to have snowy winters across all regions. Typically a snowy winter in the northeast may mean a less snowy winter in the west or Midwest. And vice versa. I was just looking at the blizzard warnings in the northern plains/upper Midwest and thinking “the people there who are like us must be talking about how awesome this winter is.” If we were happy with this winter, snow lovers somewhere else would be miserable. The point being, these are cycles. If this isn’t our winter one in the near future will be. And when it happens, while we’re all gushing about what a great winter that is, someone out west will be complaining how the winter sucks. And we won’t care. So people just need to deal with it. I’ve been through a lot of crappy near snowless winters. This isn’t the first and won’t be the last. I can’t waste my time getting angry about it. It’s like getting angry at the sunrise. Feel free to yell out your window every morning but the sun is going to keep coming up. We will have a snowy winter again at some point. I can wait if need be.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

In the town of NJ Strong, where the people traveled the lands to freedom from the discordant wasteland land of the 7ABC’s times were good.  White gold poured from the sky for nearly a decade, but terrible famine rode the streets in 2019.  The professional almanacers predicted glorious powdery white frozen wonderlands laced with ice crystals, but the Gods delivered tepid rain.  Some say it was the consequence of actions of pollsters taken in 2015.  Other experts contend it was the whim of the summer winds.    In the month of January, tempers were ignited, fueled by disappointment, and it is a well-known fact that ignition is never desirable in frozen wonderlands.  Pharaoh-In-Chief Franklin emigrated to Spain and chaos rose from the muddy soil.  Scientists with the name of CP discovered ancient texts and performed risky black magic rituals in the County of Orange with Hedghog #67.  Horrifically, the gardens of sacred land remained bare.

Giants with the name of SYO and SROC (taken possibly from the Chevrolet plants  of years gone by), woke and argued over ancient worthless models, like the EURO, GEFS and the NAM.   They battled over the numerical placement of the mercurial MJO as the residents of Banterland Boulevard cowered.  Accusations of wish casting were hurled and images of inconsolable infants were produced.  Bruce Springsteen warned, “Times are tough and they are just getting tougher, cover me.”  Of course, he was covered in warm rain.  

Legend has it that Syo, weary of fighting the good fight, simply packed his cherished belongings and hiked cross country to the redwood forests of Yellowstone Park, never to be seen again.  Others contend that a yeti like figure can be seen wandering the melted tundra’s of Long Island screaming, “Isotherm…isotherm, damn you man.”  Meanwhile, ancient parchment pages of mediocre prediction manuscripts describe a shady figure who settled down to resume the noble activities of a family man, on occasion adopting the moniker "Guest Today".

Maybe time will tell…?

To be continued.  

Epilogue
In a brightly lit hospital room at Orange Regional Medical Center in Middletown, protected by the strongest bodyguards, hedgehog #67 rose from the depths of mummification and screamed  spells of unintelligible language.  

To be continued…again….

Great stuff Grselig, I look forward to the next chapter. To preserve it feel free to post in Othelias thread where it won't get lost.

And Syos, thanks for the kind words, If Othelia survives, and the last reports are favorable, we will see you after Feb 12th when all hell breaks loose and Winter releases her full fury.

[sroc4]

So no storm next week? Or not no storm but No snow? I do not want to bother checking in If this threat is pretty much a non-event. Thanks for any info, do not have time to read the in depth writeups but I thank all those that do this!

Jman Im not even looking at model runs right now. Actually thats not true I am but I am not going to analyze anything until the weekend. I am only focused on Pattern recognition right now by observation on Sat imagery in the equatorial Pac, and OLR maps of the same region to determine if the Euro or GEFS MJO forecast will come to fruition. If the euro MJO forecast is correct and we do indeed make it into phase 8 by day 5 then I expect all models to trend to the colder and potentially snowier solns. Looking at the actual observations on Sat imagery and looking at current OLR maps, I have to think the euro MJO appears more on track with timing than the GFS does, but the proof is in the pudding. I feel like being burned as many time as we have this season has me gun shy to jump all in just yet. So for now thats it. NOthing more nothing less...no hype.

I never said anyone was hyping anything was just curious whats going on as I have been so busy I have little time to read through lots of past posts. I am guessing the post above by mugs is a good one? When the MJO goes out of the box into 8 i am assuming thats a good thing?

Jon I didn't take it that way at all. Its just that some occasionally may take a post with optimistic undertones as hype and I wanted to be clear.

[crippo84]

Even places like Seattle are cashing in on the snow. This winter is unreal.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Even places like Seattle are cashing in on the snow.  This winter is unreal.

Seattle going into today has had 2.7 inches of snow this season vs their normal of 3.0 inches to this point. Many people don't realize Seattle averages less snow per season than Virginia Beach Virginia. If something is going on there today which I'm unaware of that would just make an annoying winter even more so.

Consider B ostons plight though, 2.3 inches of snow so far and their average is 25.9, to this point. Most of southern and Central New England have taken the brunt of the screw job this year as well as of course, most of NJ and NYC and LI.

No fears though Feb 12 through the end of March will make up for it, of that I am increasingly confident.

[weatherwatchermom]

Even places like Seattle are cashing in on the snow.  This winter is unreal.

Seattle going into today has had 2.7 inches of snow this season vs their normal of 3.0 inches to this point. Many people don't realize Seattle averages less snow per season than Virginia Beach Virginia. If something is going on there today which I'm unaware of that would just make an annoying winter even more so.

Consider B ostons plight though, 2.3 inches of snow so far and their average is 25.9, to this point. Most of southern and Central New England have taken the brunt of the screw job this year as well as of course, most of NJ and NYC and LI.

No fears though Feb 12 through the end of March will make up for it, of that I am increasingly confident.

I have not seen any posts from my niece yet..she moved out there 3 years ago and she just laughs when they close down for snow..the other day there was a delay until 11 am for all employees around the city...so I asked how much did you get..she said around an INCH of snow...she just goes around picking up her co workers...lol....they have no idea how to drive in it..

[crippo84]

Even places like Seattle are cashing in on the snow.  This winter is unreal.

Seattle going into today has had 2.7 inches of snow this season vs their normal of 3.0 inches to this point. Many people don't realize Seattle averages less snow per season than Virginia Beach Virginia. If something is going on there today which I'm unaware of that would just make an annoying winter even more so.

Consider B ostons plight though, 2.3 inches of snow so far and their average is 25.9, to this point. Most of southern and Central New England have taken the brunt of the screw job this year as well as of course, most of NJ and NYC and LI.

No fears though Feb 12 through the end of March will make up for it, of that I am increasingly confident.

I have not seen any posts from my niece yet..she moved out there 3 years ago and she just laughs when they close down for snow..the other day there was a delay until 11 am for all employees around the city...so I asked how much did you get..she said around an INCH of snow...she just goes around picking up her co workers...lol....they have no idea how to drive in it..

They're under a winter storm warning for 4-6 inches, upwards of 8.  Then snow chances every day for the next 5 days!

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.60357000000005&lon=-122.32944999999995#.XF2w-FVKjx5

[weatherwatchermom]

Even places like Seattle are cashing in on the snow.  This winter is unreal.

Seattle going into today has had 2.7 inches of snow this season vs their normal of 3.0 inches to this point. Many people don't realize Seattle averages less snow per season than Virginia Beach Virginia. If something is going on there today which I'm unaware of that would just make an annoying winter even more so.

Consider B ostons plight though, 2.3 inches of snow so far and their average is 25.9, to this point. Most of southern and Central New England have taken the brunt of the screw job this year as well as of course, most of NJ and NYC and LI.

No fears though Feb 12 through the end of March will make up for it, of that I am increasingly confident.

I have not seen any posts from my niece yet..she moved out there 3 years ago and she just laughs when they close down for snow..the other day there was a delay until 11 am for all employees around the city...so I asked how much did you get..she said around an INCH of snow...she just goes around picking up her co workers...lol....they have no idea how to drive in it..

They're under a winter storm warning for 4-6 inches, upwards of 8.  Then snow chances every day for the next 5 days!

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.60357000000005&lon=-122.32944999999995#.XF2w-FVKjx5

wow

[mwilli5783]

for those who don't know,or maybe knew intellicast has merged with weather underground..i think its a great move..check it out sometime

[mwilli5783]

for those who don't know,or maybe knew intellicast has merged with weather underground..i think its a great move..check it out sometime

[algae888]

Personally for me you can have this storm if it's not mostly snow / sleet. This winter has broke most of our hope and spirits and another cutter is not going to help repair the damage

[crippo84]

Personally for me you can have this storm if it's not mostly snow / sleet. This winter has broke most of our hope and spirits and another cutter is not going to help repair the damage

Lol I agree. This storm is nothing but a finger in the eye.

[Irish]

This winter has been incredibly miserable! I'm sorta used to getting shafted being near the coast and everyone has this winter. However, N&W usually get the goods and now today, in this crap winter, south Jersey cashes in. It's like Central/coastal NJ always gets nothing. And tonight, N&W cash in and watch, CNJ will get a ton of rain.

[mikeypizano]

This winter has been incredibly miserable!  I'm sorta used to getting shafted being near the coast and everyone has this winter.  However, N&W usually get the goods and now today, in this crap winter, south Jersey cashes in.  It's like Central/coastal NJ always gets nothing.  And tonight, N&W cash in and watch, CNJ will get a ton of rain.

I would gladly take all rain compared to what I will get...

[Irish]

This winter has been incredibly miserable!  I'm sorta used to getting shafted being near the coast and everyone has this winter.  However, N&W usually get the goods and now today, in this crap winter, south Jersey cashes in.  It's like Central/coastal NJ always gets nothing.  And tonight, N&W cash in and watch, CNJ will get a ton of rain.

I would gladly take all rain compared to what I will get...

I hear ya there. It's just killing me as we always seem to miss out with most snow events being N&W and now today's was S. LoL! It's like winter toys with my sNOwmotions!

[billg315]

This winter has been incredibly miserable!  I'm sorta used to getting shafted being near the coast and everyone has this winter.  However, N&W usually get the goods and now today, in this crap winter, south Jersey cashes in.  It's like Central/coastal NJ always gets nothing.  And tonight, N&W cash in and watch, CNJ will get a ton of rain.

I would gladly take all rain compared to what I will get...

I hear ya there.  It's just killing me as we always seem to miss out with most snow events being N&W and now today's was S.  LoL!  It's like winter toys with my sNOwmotions!

The way this winter has gone, I second that snowmotion!

[billg315]

Disclaimer: This is not my forecast. It is my "worst case scenario" from past experience with these types of storms.

So I've been burned by these snow to sleet to rain storms before. How does it all go wrong? Here is how it usually goes.

1. I go to bed with a forecast of accumulating snow slowly changing to sleet and then rain much later. Im not expecting a big storm, but hope for a few hours of decent snow and sleet before the rain arrives.
2. I wake up at 6 a.m. I look out my window and see  . . . nothing. Ground is dry, no snow yet. Radar shows light snow over me, but not reaching the ground yet. Temp is 32* instead of the forecast low of 27*
3. At 8 a.m. after two hours of anxious waiting the snow begins falling lightly. I hope this is the start. The temp drops a degree or two which encourages me.
4. 10 a.m. the snow picks up intensity to moderate levels. Ground is coated now and the temp is 30* and things are looking good.
5. 11 a.m. I hear that sound. Sleet pelting my windows. What? Too soon! I don't even have 1" of snow yet.
6. 12 noon full on sleet and temp is rising to 32*.
7. 12:30 p.m. rain starts mixing with sleet. Temp hits 33*
8. 1 p.m. All rain now. 34*  and the 1-2" of snow and sleet slowly turns to slush and puddles. I kick myself for getting hopes up about another of these transition storms.

This, is my nightmare. It has played out many times just like this. I hope this is not one of them.

[sroc4]

I just had to share. So my daughter this morning and I, she's 8, are waiting at the bus stop and we are talking about random stuff. It begins to flurry and she realizes it and out of the blue says,

"OMG Daddy!! It worked!"
"What worked? What are you talking about?"
"Last night I told Owen, (her 10yr old brother), to wear his pajama's inside out, put a spoon under his pillow, and put ice cubes in the toilet bowl to make it snow. IT WORKED!! IT WORKED!!"

Future winter weather weenie in the making....so proud. LOL

[billg315]

Lol! The ice cubes in the toilet I had not heard of!

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