Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[brownie]

Anyone else unable to see Frank's images?

I can’t see them either.  I haven’t been able to see the images he posts for a couple of days.  Other posters’ images are fine.

[nutleyblizzard]

Anyone else unable to see Frank's images?

Did you log in?

[brownie]

Anyone else unable to see Frank's images?

I can’t see them either.  I haven’t been able to see the images he posts for a couple of days.  Other posters’ images are fine.

Actually, it’s only some of Frank’s posts I can’t see. Not sure what makes some visible and some not.

[nutleyblizzard]

I'm hearing there is limited cold air for the day 7 threat (so what else is new)? Fortunately we have time for the upper levels to iron things out.

[Guest]

Seeing as nobody said it was too early, I'll ask. The Euro ensembles show a second system over the Great Lakes around the same time that the coastal low arrives. I'm assuming it's possible that the two systems could overlap, but what would happen if that scenario came to be?

[crippo84]

Anyone else unable to see Frank's images?

Did you log in?

Gotta be logged in to be able to comment. Sometimes when others quote a comment hidden images will show. Maybe it's because I'm mobile who knows.

[snowday111]

I can't see his images either. I just see a black box with a white x in it. I can see images from other posters though.

[jmanley32]

I'm hearing there is limited cold air for the day 7 threat (so what else is new)? Fortunately we have time for the upper levels to iron things out.

Euro ensembles show that for majority of coast, not many have snow for just west of NYC on east. Some are even cutters, lots of time but that would be par for the course this winter.

[amugs]

I'm hearing there is limited cold air for the day 7 threat (so what else is new)? Fortunately we have time for the upper levels to iron things out.

Euro ensembles show that for majority of coast, not many have snow for just west of NYC on east.  Some are even cutters, lots of time but that would be par for the course this winter.

As I stated last night in the Pen about the NAO needs to helps us or else this can run the spine of the Apps since the PNA is not in an ideal location at this time it is to far west and then another massive cold arctic air mass filters in as it leaves - sound familiar?
PNA ridge is off the WC
And the LP in the GL the aresian noted above will act as a kicker if this pattern is correct

[amugs]

Solar Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2019 total: 14 days (67%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)

[docstox12]

NWS honking snow Sunday, Sunday night, Monday 30 to 40% now up here.

[heehaw453]

LOL!

[skinsfan1177]

LOL!

Crap model not so good

[jmanley32]

LOL!

Crap model not so good

We so wish, crushing blozzard there, everything I want in a storm, high amounts of snow and high winds. Too bad I am more likely to win the lottery than this to verify. BTW when does the other GFS phase out to this one? That may be bad news.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

LOL!

Crap model not so good

We so wish, crushing blozzard there, everything I want in a storm, high amounts of snow and high winds.  Too bad I am more likely to win the lottery than this to verify.  BTW when does the other GFS phase out to this one? That may be bad news.

I almost thought this was someone posting the Feb 25, 2010 Snowicane by mistake.

A classic storm with a classic rain/snow line. NYC had 21 inches, I had 35 inches, the single biggest storm I ever experienced. Of course to top things off it rained throughout almost all of the storm through most of New England all the way up into Vermont.

Of course this as Jman said as depicted here this is not happening. Not this winter anyway.

[crippo84]

The silence in the long range thread by most of our main forecasters is a bit discouraging lol.

[Irish]

Agreed crippo, especially with some thinking that the 28th held some promise and now that's less than a week away.

[lglickman1]

Does anyone see anything promising on the horizon? Or only false hopes and crushing defeat?

[Frank_Wx]

Wednesday and Thursday of this week we'll see more rain from a storm cutting to our west. The trough is in the west which means a ridge pops over the east:



Behind the cutter we see the PV drift south and a nice ridge develop over the west. However, notice how the location of the western ridge is just off the coast of Cali. Typically, for east coast storms, we want the ridge centered over Montana.



A chance for light snow exists on Saturday as some upper energy from the PV slides across our area. But I would not expect much.

Beyond this weekend, it looks like a piece of the PV stays south enough that we stay cold while very extreme ridging continues over the NE Pacific in the EPO domain. However, if you pay close attention to the height fields over the western U.S. they actually look quite low. It's more of a neutral to negative PNA than it is positive. Once again, the ridge being JUST off the coast is not a good thing for our area.



Now forward to February 1st and a -EPO/-NAO has developed. This could lead to winter weather along the east, but I caution when the PNA is negative and the cold almost looks to be on the other side of the country, it does not mean the storms will have enough cold air to work with.



Our theme of the winter is cold/dry and warm/wet. While I mentioned nearly 2-3 weeks ago I think the 25th-5th time period will be our best shot of the winter, I cannot help but feel a little down by looking at latest guidance. Nothing screams Godzilla or even moderate snowstorm to me right now. If something does pop, it will be the signal ensembles show for next Monday. Right now models lost the storm but it can still come back as long as enough ridging sneaks into the western U.S.

Its been a very frustrating winter, folks. And with Stratospheric mean zonal winds expected to go positive again and the MJO entering warm phases, I am concerned we may very well witness one of the worst winters (snowfall wise) of our lifetimes.

[heehaw453]

Nice write up Frank and well said.  I agree with you that this has the makings of 95th percentile least snowy winters for the meteorological winter.  Anything can happen, but I've already resigned myself to this.

[billg315]

I was just thinking how there was nothing popping up of much interest on the models right now. Then I read Frank's post. Not encouraging.

[HectorO]

Does anyone see anything promising on the horizon?  Or only false hopes and crushing defeat?

The horizon meaning next winter.

[sroc4]

Regardless of what models say now I still like our chances for Tuesday Wed next week. I think the nature of even some of the key players at this stage is like to change throughout the week. Won’t take anything serious good or bad until I see some continuity which there is zero right now.

[amugs]

EPS the cold is here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

EPS the cold is here

No offense to you or any of the experts, but these maps a week or more out have become meaningless this winter.

[amugs]

The EPO is there but we need the PNA ridge axis and I talked about this is banter to be more east than off the WC as Frank showed, we need it 500 miles more east or we get inland runners and then the PV drops in behind it or its too flat coming out and they slide south.
This pattern has been the same since early Dec and you know that nature loves to lock in patterns. We need NAO help or the WC ridge to slide further east east .

From JB and Scot brought this up about the MJO and where teh convection is - and it isnt suppose to dry out over the warm phases until.............next week now - for the love of god it was to be a slingshot run through these phases for 3-5 days now were are up to 10 days






This though this jet streak looks good to me for Sunday into Monday on the GEFS overall - needs some work though




Need about 100 miles more south for my liking at this stage for everyone here to see snow


The Best storms pop up within the 5 day range so holding out over the next two days for this Sunday into Monday event.

As one met said we keep saying 7 days it will change adn the other factors come into play and squash us - ala the dismal winter 11-12 winter

[dkodgis]

Short long range: I notice lots of rain Wed and Thurs (am). I also notice that Thursday could be what...50 degrees? I guess this all is the new normal.

n-o-r-m-a-l

I don't wanna believe it

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