JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

that crushes southern ny too ugg

That's sleet in the LHV on the warmest frame of the NAM Jman, I would welcome that over freezing rain. On that run no freezing rain gets into HV only sleet. At least unitl the next run.

yes on that map but you also saw the jam frz map from pivotal weather doesn't get up to you but us down here not so lucky.

aiannone wrote:0z ICON

Frank said nyc area is nearly all ice so does that mean everything encased in 2 plus inches of ice?!! Or sleet too as doc said sleet is safer. But Damn I just can't believe the persistence of a potential ice storm sorry if I say it a million times its just hard to believe. Even frank said he wasn't buying the idea yet. Earler. I dunno what he thinks now.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:0z ICON

Frank said nyc area is nearly all ice so does that mean everything encased in 2 plus inches of ice?!! Or sleet too as doc said sleet is safer. But Damn I just can't believe the persistence of a potential ice storm sorry if I say it a million times its just hard to believe. Even frank said he wasn't buying the idea yet. Earler. I dunno what he thinks now.

Here's the thing.

Yes, some of these maps are showing significant ice. But it's important to understand the context. Take this map of the ICON for example. 850mb temps are above freezing and surface temps are between 31-33 degrees in NYC. While technically that is considered ice, the warming is too deep at 850mb and the surface temps are too marginal to allow for significant ice accretion.

In my opinion, you need surface temps in the 20's (mid 20's or lower honestly) to see significant ice accretion. Areas in the 30's may see some sleet but not a whole lot of freezing rain.

0z GFS is nearly identical to 18z through 54. maybe a tad weaker

arctic high a bit stonger

tick southeast at 69

GFS shows no ice. Snow to rain. Here is the snow map.



I did see improvements aloft. Probably best piece of news of the night to see the GFS trend in a better direction.

0z CMC has the low south of LI like the euro. big step for that model

if only the storm would redevelop off coast and go benchmark.

Sadly we'll do this all over again tomorrow to find out we do not have any consensus.


Night all.

Overall I like what I see so far. Really would like to see the UKMET hold serve and the EURO tick southeast. Both globals have so far tonight (albeit the crappoer ones lol)

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:0z ICON

Frank said nyc area is nearly all ice so does that mean everything encased in 2 plus inches of ice?!! Or sleet too as doc said sleet is safer. But Damn I just can't believe the persistence of a potential ice storm sorry if I say it a million times its just hard to believe. Even frank said he wasn't buying the idea yet. Earler. I dunno what he thinks now.

Here's the thing.

Yes, some of these maps are showing significant ice. But it's important to understand the context. Take this map of the ICON for example. 850mb temps are above freezing and surface temps are between 31-33 degrees in NYC. While technically that is considered ice, the warming is too deep at 850mb and the surface temps are too marginal to allow for significant ice accretion.

In my opinion, you need surface temps in the 20's (mid 20's or lower honestly) to see significant ice accretion. Areas in the 30's may see some sleet but not a whole lot of freezing rain.

that's a good point guess it will come down to how cold the surface trees etc actually get to. I wouldn't think NYC would accrue much but as u head into Westchester it might become more likely if temps are lower like u said 20s.

0z UKIE southeast again of 12z

South of BM

aiannone wrote:0z UKIE southeast again of 12z

South of BM

C.L.U.T.C.H.

Wow 0z UKIE!!

What does southeast of 12z mean? And is ukie still trending in the right direction?

Irish wrote:What does southeast of 12z mean?  And is ukie still trending in the right direction?

It means the track and position of the low on the 00z ukie was southeast of the 12z run. That is a good thing.

0z Euro. Dangerous ICE for NYC/LI/SCT again. Also ends as moderate snow

Looks like the Euro slid a little to the NW this run, at least as it pertains to the heaviest snows.

This can not be good. From WeatherBell.

Biggest red flag to me, and people can make fun of me all they want, but seeing how far south and COLD the SREFs are at this range (when they are normally the most amplified ensemble) is a tremendous signal that further corrections south on other guidance (most notably the EURO, GFS, and GEM suites) are more likely than not in future runs.

NWS this morning has me in the LHV at 5 to 9 for the event with sleet and FR on Sunday.Hope rb's SREF analysis pans out and this shifts S and E .

rb924119 wrote:Biggest red flag to me, and people can make fun of me all they want, but seeing how far south and COLD the SREFs are at this range (when they are normally the most amplified ensemble) is a tremendous signal that further corrections south on other guidance (most notably the EURO, GFS, and GEM suites) are more likely than not in future runs.

rb here is uptons disco. they are not using gfs and are siding with colder solutions.

"arctic high pressure will be located across southeast Canada and
ridge down into New England on Saturday. At the same time, a
southern stream shortwave spawns low pressure across the southeast.
The southern stream is progged to remain progressive and positively
tilted with little phasing from the polar jet to the north. It
appears that the influence of the northern stream will not come into
play until the southern stream wave is near the east coast. This has
led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low
further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt
on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well
except the GFS/GEFS which appear to be an outlier solution and
remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy
with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is
also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet
interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track
forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages."

National weather service has issued winter storm watch for North and west of the city and east of the city hopefully today we will have a better idea of what's going on.i hope we all get a decent amount of snow not ice or sleet