JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

algae888 wrote:12z icon has the low over north Carolina and then develops a second wave along the front and rides up the coast. precip comes in quicker and hot good front and back end snows

Yeah, ICON and UKIE probably the best. Looks like lots of ice on ICON as well, temperatures never get to freezing

rb924119 wrote:1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)

what does number 3 mean

I’m not saying to take the ICON literally here, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK IS HUGE

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)

what does number 3 mean

They are usually the warmest/most amped/furthest northwest solution, especially at this range, so seeing them more in line with southern options is a good sign.

I am hearing that the NAM is still leaping around at h5 quite a bit and therefore perhaps should still be taken with a grain of salt until it settles down a bit.

Is the icon ever right?. Still holding on hope

Checking in this morning, every map I've seen seems to point to a major/potentially catastrophic icing event for my area. I don't want to be a debbie downer but I could seriously do without that. Give me snow or just rain. At least I'll have a better chance of keeping my power on.

I'm about 44 miles WNW of NYC.

Updated NWS forecast for my area: still calling for 8-12 inches of snow/sleet for Saturday night, but Sunday has changed from "Wintry Mix" to "Ice to Snow."

Interestingly enough, weather.gov (NOAA) calling for an all snow event for my region. Somehow I don't see that happening but they are usually pretty reliable?

DAYBLAZER wrote:Checking in this morning, every map I've seen seems to point to a major/potentially catastrophic icing event for my area. I don't want to be a debbie downer but I could seriously do without that. Give me snow or just rain. At least I'll have a better chance of keeping my power on.

I'm about 44 miles WNW of NYC.

Agree 100% with you!

DAYBLAZER wrote:Checking in this morning, every map I've seen seems to point to a major/potentially catastrophic icing event for my area. I don't want to be a debbie downer but I could seriously do without that. Give me snow or just rain. At least I'll have a better chance of keeping my power on.

I'm about 44 miles WNW of NYC.

Kinda how I feel. The excitement of tracking a snowstorm seems to have been replaced with tracking a potentially terrible event.

Is this right:

mid level air (850) is too warm, so no matter the track and temps of the surface low, no snow (or snow to rain, same thing)...but then we get blasted with huge qpf and the arctic rush that follows flash freezes everything not already frozen?

wow...thanks atmosphere...

Is an actual area wide snow storm still a possible option? Or is the best case scenario now to somehow not get crippling ice?

Edit: Anyone have an extra dose of optimism I can grab?

lglickman1 wrote:Is it normal to have centers of low pressure at different levels of the atmosphere be so far apart?

That is a great question

Still not a great run, but the GFS does come further south. Some backend ice/snow

12z



6z

12z GFS seems pretty status quo with its previous runs. It has been, I think very consistent throughout. (not that a model can't be consistently wrong).

Right now my preliminary thoughts are:
From I-195 south this is primarily a rain event. It may start as a few hours of snow, but even if a couple inches fall, the rain will be heavy and prolonged enough that will well be washed away by Sunday AM.
From I-195 north to about I-78 and NYC proper, westhern LI, will be a few inches of snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain, then rain. You may have a lot of slush around Sunday (which will need to be cleared before Sunday night or it will be a block of ice come Monday).
From I-78 north to I-80 several inches of snow, to ice/sleet and maybe a brief period of all rain.
Anywhere north of I-80 and west of I-287 will say predominately snow and could get over a foot, especially in NE PA and near Binghamton.
I think all areas end as a brief shot of snow midday Sunday, but not enough to really add much to what has already fallen.

SENJsnowman wrote:

DAYBLAZER wrote:Checking in this morning, every map I've seen seems to point to a major/potentially catastrophic icing event for my area. I don't want to be a debbie downer but I could seriously do without that. Give me snow or just rain. At least I'll have a better chance of keeping my power on.

I'm about 44 miles WNW of NYC.

Kinda how I feel. The excitement of tracking a snowstorm seems to have been replaced with tracking a potentially terrible event.

Is this right:

mid level air (850) is too warm, so no matter the track and temps of the surface low, no snow (or snow to rain, same thing)...but then we get blasted with huge qpf and the arctic rush that follows flash freezes everything not already frozen?

wow...thanks atmosphere...

Is an actual area wide snow storm still a possible option? Or is the best case scenario now to somehow not get crippling ice?

Edit: Anyone have an extra dose of optimism I can grab?  

It's always unlikely we ever get an area wide snow storm just because it's such a diverse big area, no matter how big the storm someone on this forum seems to always get screwed. We have coastal, inland, hilly areas, flat areas. Just consider the average snowfall per season in our area runs from a low of 20 inches per season in SNJ to anywhere form 30-60 inches in suburbs N&W of NYC, to 30-50 inches for suburbs E and NE of NYC.

For your area for this storm I would do the old adage, expect nothing and if you receive nothing you won't be disappointed. I'm not saying it's impossible for SNJ coast to have a major snow from this but highly unlikely at this stage.

One of the worst places to be for this storm IMO is right where I reside in the HV. Yes we will probably see several inches of snow, but it will probably be followed by several hours of maddening sleet and freezing rain with temps in low 20's followed by sub zero cold and no power in all likelihood for days. If that's the choice I'd rather be on the Jersey shore in all rain for this one.

billg315 wrote:Anywhere north of I-80 and west of I-287 will say predominately snow and could get over a foot, especially in NE PA and near Binghamton.
I think all areas end as a brief shot of snow midday Sunday, but not enough to really add much to what has already fallen.

Well I'm 4 miles North of I-80 and 20 miles west of I-287. Would gladly take a snowier solution. I have a feeling my area will be the battleground.

I'm also 1100 ft above sea level (I like in the mountains of Hopatcong not down by the lake itself). Will elevation help me out here?

DAYBLAZER wrote:

billg315 wrote:Anywhere north of I-80 and west of I-287 will say predominately snow and could get over a foot, especially in NE PA and near Binghamton.
I think all areas end as a brief shot of snow midday Sunday, but not enough to really add much to what has already fallen.

Well I'm 4 miles North of I-80 and 20 miles west of I-287. Would gladly take a snowier solution. I have a feeling my area will be the battleground.

I'm also 1100 ft above sea level (I like in the mountains of Hopatcong not down by the lake itself). Will elevation help me out here?

Becuase this is more a battle of mid level temperature issues and not surface temp issues in our areas, elevation will have a minimal effect.

DAYBLAZER wrote:

billg315 wrote:Anywhere north of I-80 and west of I-287 will say predominately snow and could get over a foot, especially in NE PA and near Binghamton.
I think all areas end as a brief shot of snow midday Sunday, but not enough to really add much to what has already fallen.

Well I'm 4 miles North of I-80 and 20 miles west of I-287. Would gladly take a snowier solution. I have a feeling my area will be the battleground.

I'm also 1100 ft above sea level (I like in the mountains of Hopatcong not down by the lake itself). Will elevation help me out here?

I think you're in a pretty good spot to get mostly snow. And to the extent it does change over, I think you'd get a longer period of sleet/freezing rain than just rain. Elevation probably doesn't make a big difference but if it does, it might be to extend your period of freezing rain since it will still be warm aloft with frozen ground.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

DAYBLAZER wrote:Checking in this morning, every map I've seen seems to point to a major/potentially catastrophic icing event for my area. I don't want to be a debbie downer but I could seriously do without that. Give me snow or just rain. At least I'll have a better chance of keeping my power on.

I'm about 44 miles WNW of NYC.

Kinda how I feel. The excitement of tracking a snowstorm seems to have been replaced with tracking a potentially terrible event.

Is this right:

mid level air (850) is too warm, so no matter the track and temps of the surface low, no snow (or snow to rain, same thing)...but then we get blasted with huge qpf and the arctic rush that follows flash freezes everything not already frozen?

wow...thanks atmosphere...

Is an actual area wide snow storm still a possible option? Or is the best case scenario now to somehow not get crippling ice?

Edit: Anyone have an extra dose of optimism I can grab?  

It's always unlikely we ever get an area wide snow storm just because it's such a diverse big area, no matter how big the storm someone on this forum seems to always get screwed. We have coastal, inland, hilly areas, flat areas. Just consider the average snowfall per season in our area runs from a low of 20 inches per season in SNJ to anywhere form 30-60 inches in suburbs N&W of NYC, to 30-50 inches for suburbs E and NE of NYC.

For your area for this storm I would do the old adage, expect nothing and if you receive nothing you won't be disappointed. I'm not saying it's impossible for SNJ coast to have a major snow from this but highly unlikely at this stage.

One of the worst places to be for this storm IMO is right where I reside in the HV. Yes we will probably see several inches of snow, but it will probably be followed by several hours of maddening sleet and freezing rain with temps in low 20's followed by sub zero cold and no power in all likelihood for days. If that's the choice I'd rather be on the Jersey shore in all rain for this one.

I hear you on all counts CP. It's strange though how over the past 24-48 hrs the convo has really changed from tracking who the lucky ones are in the bulls-eye of a blizzard to who the poor souls are getting the worst of bona fide severe weather.

Believe me, I am not concerned with imby snow totals right now...unless somehow the potential ice-tragedy can just go away. I guess that's my point. And the all rain for the coast is going to be all ice before daybreak on monday anyway...but clearly not as threatening as 1/2"+ of icy precip...oh my...for Monday morning...

I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

syosnow94 wrote:

Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully



YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

That's...like...so organic...

(spoken in best Cheech Marin voice)

I really feel like there’s too much panic and freaking out over ice in this discussion right now. Relax

A. Freezing rain forecasts almost always bust low
B. There’s still 3 sets of model runs before anything is nailed down and we are still trending south as we speak
C. Load up on wood and booze and ride it out. People have survived for ages. We will too. Relax

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

syosnow94 wrote:I really feel like there’s too much panic and freaking out over ice in this discussion right now. Relax

A.  Freezing rain forecasts almost always bust low
B.  There’s still 3 sets of model runs before anything is nailed down and we are still trending south as we speak
C.  Load up on wood and booze and ride it out. People have survived for ages. We will too. Relax

Very good points, and they worked...thanks!

Don't know that there has been any panic or freaking out, though, lol but you are right...relax it is...

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?