JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Ummmmmmmm

Just look at the difference in the evolution of the PNA ridge out west from 12z the 14th to todays 12z.  2 days ago there was a compact amplified ULL coming onshore pumping the ridge.  Now the modeling on the euro verbatim has the energy all strung out actually de-amplifying it.  Unreal

Euro gives Central NJ by me 2.5 to 3 inches of precip. Zowie. I might go buy a generator...

New York City on the Euro never gets above 32 degrees for the entire storm in the twenties anywhere north of there. Newark highest temperature is 30 during the storm. We still have to remember the mid-levels are going to warm because this is a southern stream system so even though temps will be cold enough to support snow it will not be an all-out snowfall for many of us probably a 30 mile radius north and west of the city. you have to get into CP and Doc land for it to have a chance to stay all snow even there can mix. Verbatim on the euro is five to seven in for New York City followed by 1.8 in of either sleet or freezing rain followed by 1 to 3 in of snow on the back end I don't ever recall a storm like this if this were to happen

I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

Seeing as there are no dumb questions, here goes:

I'm looking at the Euro and something here doesn't make sense to me. The surface map is calling for 12" on the ground by Monday morning, but that's at 10:1. Temps here are expected to peak at 25 on Saturday and drop into the low teens. That's between 15 and 30:1 which would push the storm into borderline Roidzilla territory. How is that kind of prediction even possible?

syosnow94 wrote:

algae888 wrote:one thing I noticed so far today is that this system has speed up on all guidance. which is good imo as the front end snows should be good. so far all three global, gfs icon and cmc give nyc 4+ inches and cp and doc around a foot before any change to some other form of precip.

Not good IMHO it gives the southern energy and the northern energy more time to phase which WE DO NOT WANT. We want the northern energy way out ahead to act as a kicker. It’s the opposite of what we usually
want

James what we want is a faster arrival time of the snow so we can maximize the amount of time we have before the inevitable changeover happens near the coast. This system is not phasing early it's phasing late now quick of arrival time equals more snow for Coastal sections

aiannone wrote:Ummmmmmmm

wait wait is that on top of 8 to 14 inches snow mugs was talk bout or is the precip all ice
This is now getting a bit concerning. Not just one run or one model but a few and similar crippling amunts. I can't even fathom. I've never seen the fzr legend nearly maxed out. So we better watch out!

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

No kidding aside you made these lat two storms call after the Nov debacle LOL! - Great come back kid!

Alex you beat me to the punch on the ice maps - I had to teach a few kids a few things about ................C........A.................D......

Crippling scenario. Need a few more ticks over teh next 24 hours and then..............HOLD!!

TheAresian wrote:Seeing as there are no dumb questions, here goes:

I'm looking at the Euro and something here doesn't make sense to me. The surface map is calling for 12" on the ground by Monday morning, but that's at 10:1. Temps here are expected to peak at 25 on Saturday and drop into the low teens. That's between 15 and 30:1 which would push the storm into borderline Roidzilla territory. How is that kind of prediction even possible?

Not sure I completely understand the question (not a jab, just honestly not clear on what you’re trying to get at). Can you be more specific?

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

This is such a great point Ray!! And dont think the exact thermal profiles seen today are locked. This is going to go right down to the wire

algae888 wrote:New York City on the Euro never gets above 32 degrees for the entire storm in the twenties anywhere north of there. Newark highest temperature is 30 during the storm. We still have to remember the mid-levels are going to warm because this is a southern stream system so even though temps will be cold enough to support snow it will not be an all-out snowfall for many of us probably a 30 mile radius north and west of the city. you have to get into CP and Doc land for it to have a chance to stay all snow even there can mix. Verbatim on the euro is five to seven in for New York City followed by 1.8 in of either sleet or freezing rain followed by 1 to 3 in of snow on the back end I don't ever recall a storm like this if this were to happen

nope al I'm not as old as you but I too do not recall such a potentially awful situation. If its frz we are screwed sleet we can deal with but the models seem to be zoning in on frz not sleet. As mugs said not good. May be a wild ride here and inland going to makeup big time for lost snow.

I mean 12" is a reasonable total, but with the cold temps forecasted for my area the ratio bump jumps the total up to 18-24". That would make it the biggest or 2nd biggest snowfall since the Superstorm of 93. Does this system really have that much potential?

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

This is such a great point Ray!!  And dont think the exact thermal profiles seen today are locked.  This is going to go right down to the wire

That's not good if that ice comes true. There will be preparations needed. Stores are go b mobbed no matter what. I'm in CVS and people are talking. Its Def not only in forums.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:New York City on the Euro never gets above 32 degrees for the entire storm in the twenties anywhere north of there. Newark highest temperature is 30 during the storm. We still have to remember the mid-levels are going to warm because this is a southern stream system so even though temps will be cold enough to support snow it will not be an all-out snowfall for many of us probably a 30 mile radius north and west of the city. you have to get into CP and Doc land for it to have a chance to stay all snow even there can mix. Verbatim on the euro is five to seven in for New York City followed by 1.8 in of either sleet or freezing rain followed by 1 to 3 in of snow on the back end I don't ever recall a storm like this if this were to happen

nope al I'm not as old as you but I too do not recall such a potentially awful situation. If its frz we are screwed sleet we can deal with but the models seem to be zoning in on frz not sleet. As mugs said not good. May be a wild ride here and inland going to makeup big time for lost snow.

I don't ever recall an ice storm like that in reality. But we have seen potential on the maps over the past years. Hopefully the next few days are positive changes.

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

Ray, things are looking pretty good north of 84 in Dutchess. Im 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and hoping freezing rain stays south. I just hate the ice. Are you in Fishkill?

Yea hyde no ice please, we might be in a good place for snow and heavy.

My analog of MLK day storm of January 1994 is on the table Biggly at this point.
This Low Level Cold Arctic Air ain't no run of the mill here peeps this is dense air from the mid to top levels of the troposphere not some Alberta HP sliding down and over. Interesting.

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

R b I totally agree. also wear temperatures stay in the mid-20s or colder and 850s warm to say + 3 that's a sleet signal this looks like a snow and sleet event for a vast majority of us as currently modeled and Scott I also agree with you as thermal profiles are not yet set

jimv45 wrote:Yea hyde no ice please, we might be in a good place for snow and heavy.

Euro was a good hit for us and keeps ice just south. Hope things tick a little more south the next 2 days.

Frank_Wx wrote:When the precip maps pick up on very intense precip rates like this one, in the dead of winter, it usually means ice.



And then you validate it against the temperature map...and...yes. Lots and lots of ice.

I have no idea how reliable this Icon map is with regard to temperatures, but there is like a 80° difference between the demarva to just over the Canadian border. Even between the coast and just inland there is a very notable difference. The local pro mets for my area have been very consistant with the temps in mid 40° range on Sunday leading me to believe that a changeover is evident. What scares me is what is forecast to come in on Sunday night with a projected low of 12°, everything will be a block of ice come monday morning,especially if we go from snow to rain and then back over to snow as the system pulls away.

Yes hyde hope no one has to deal with what some models are putting out with that ice. RB said he thinks there might be one more tick South and East.

Wowzers. I guess I'm not going into the City on Sunday.

algae888 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

R b I totally agree. also wear temperatures stay in the mid-20s or colder and 850s warm to say + 3 that's a sleet signal this looks like a snow and sleet event for a vast majority of us as currently modeled and Scott I also agree with you as thermal profiles are not yet set

Agree with you both on all accounts.

All models are going back to what the euro showed a week ago i think and thats alot of snow for the coast. They say u have to smell the rain to jackpot

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I actually think the 15:1 map is more representative of the overall distribution. Whomever is immediately on the cold side of the thermal gradient aloft is going to be absolutely RIPPING, relative to those further north and west. Also, ratios will still be approximately 15:1 there, if not even a bit higher based on my earlier analysis. Secondly, the incredible vertical motion is undoubtedly going to work to offset the northward protrusion of the warm tongue for seemingly borderline locations. For example, anywhere the current thermal profile suggests a particular point reaches 0-1C aloft, I think will actually end up below 0C and snowing via intense dynamics. This also why I like one more southward correction from the consensus, but time will tell. I will say, though, that having the Euro, UK, and NAM seemingly aligned and still trending favorable is a tremendous positive (knocks on wood).

Ray, things are looking pretty good north of 84 in Dutchess. Im 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and hoping freezing rain stays south. I just hate the ice. Are you in Fishkill?

I will very likely be going home to PA for this one, so no, I won’t be in Fishkill this time I think you stay all snow. Doc and CP too, if my geography is correct.

Anyone know for the city if we going to have snow to rain then back to snow or snow and sleet and freezing rain situation thanks