Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:39 pm


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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:08 pm

The real deal right there^^^^^

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by Irish on Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:09 pm

Amugs, is the a map/ chart in your 9:39 post that i'm just not seeing?

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:34 pm

I guess nothing to track..no one on
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:10 pm

Its Friday night mom everyone is out.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:39 am

For YBY?? So did 12 Z. It was close. The cold press is real and popping so many SE  members is a good sign.
There is a storm signal and let's keep this IMBY out of her please, I can see it coming. Your like ravenous dogs who smell food us snow starced snowneeenies. We can see 2 storms in a 4 -5 day period, next look's to be supper bowl weekend, hoping for Sunday!!

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:44 am

amugs wrote:For YBY?? So did 12 Z. It was close. The cold press is real and popping so many SE  members is a good sign.
There is a storm signal and let's keep this IMBY out of her please, I can see it coming. Your like ravenous dogs who smell food us snow starced snowneeenies. We can see 2 storms in a 4 -5 day period, next look's to be supper bowl weekend, hoping for Sunday!!
Who's asking IMBY, I was talking in general the entire area, but after reading about the thermal profiles between 925mb and 850mb its def a difficult think to predict so not concerned at this point. And whatever you posted that you were honking at above the picture did not show up even after refreshing several times and trying another browser, there def is a issue with the pics Frank, maybe you can look into your host site that hosts the pics? Dunno where exactly the issue would be but there have been numerous complaints about the same thing.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:17 am

EPS folks still honking and with with about 84 to go it's looking good. The Coastal has jumped further east as the Ridge in the North Atlantic presses on it and this is good it will keep the flow NE for us on its backside and slow up this front and lock it some cold air. Let's see where we go today and hioedully we can get a plowist storm for all!! Can't posts map for some reason being mobile. Sorry

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:21 am

EPS



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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:41 am

amugs wrote:EPS folks still honking and with with about 84 to go it's looking good. The Coastal has jumped further east as the Ridge in the North Atlantic presses on it and this is good it will keep the flow NE for us on its backside and slow up this front and lock it some cold air. Let's see where we go today and hioedully we can get a plowist storm for all!! Can't posts map for some reason being mobile. Sorry
sounds good let's hope this is how trend because I am sick and tired of getting cold then rain storms then back to cold

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:13 am

frank 638 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS folks still honking and with with about 84 to go it's looking good. The Coastal has jumped further east as the Ridge in the North Atlantic presses on it and this is good it will keep the flow NE for us on its backside and slow up this front and lock it some cold air. Let's see where we go today and hioedully we can get a plowist storm for all!! Can't posts map for some reason being mobile. Sorry
sounds good let's hope this is how trend because I am sick and tired of getting cold then rain storms then back to cold

Amen Frank...you've been speaking my mind all winter man.

OK...now we are out of the long range, into the mid range, and we are still tracking something worth tracking. And it's not even trending crappier at the moment.

So, as this threat figures out how to belly-up itself from here, we do appear to be making progress!

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by mwilli5783 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:15 pm

great write up senj mugs and frank,like all in here waiting 4 plow able snow and the"m" word

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:22 pm

GEFS agree on juicer outcome.
Then it has arctcue snow shower's Wednesday with insane ratios LOL


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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:28 pm

I'm NOT trying to say I think it's going to snow.

I just want to see if I'm getting some of this stuff right.

Following Frank's lead (Frank W_x, that is), I'm comparing the 00z GFS with the 12z for 18z on Wed. I think I see 3 improvements at the upper level.

1. Most significantly, the trough looks negative to me in the 12z. It also looks like the that 492 circle is a tad further south.

2. It looks like the n and s parts are trying to phase on 12z. They don't, but that's seems at least better...

3. While still strung out and weak, the southern stream is better- longer fuller.





That's what I see...is that the right read/takeaway?

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:03 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:  ...is that the right read/takeaway?

Any chance I can get even a Y/N, no explanation needed...

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:12 pm

I'm not sure but I can say that from the model runs surface the coast and even well inland is mostly rain again...and a flooding one at that. I'm sure that's what will happen I have no faith left in this winter or lack there of.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:31 pm

18z NAM seems to be developing a secondary Tuesday along the front in the Carolinas and bringing it up the coast Tuesday night. Also a little colder with mostly snow with the frontal passage. 18z GFS still starts with rain and mainly just a frontal passage but more aggressive on the backside snow.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:33 pm

If the NAM played out I think we might have something to work with Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:38 pm

SENJ I think 18z Wednesday is probably too late in the day to look at for clues. This will mostly play out Tuesday into Wednesday morning. I’d keep an eye on the upper levels on the Monday night through Tuesday night maps to see how it’s coming together.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:51 pm

billg315 wrote:SENJ I think 18z Wednesday is probably too late in the day to look at for clues. This will mostly play out Tuesday into Wednesday morning. I’d keep an eye on the upper levels on the Monday night through Tuesday night maps to see how it’s coming together.

Roger that. So, is what I'm looking at actually bad news, b/c it already missed the phase? does the 12z map I posted shows some of what we needed, but too little and too late in the game?

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:52 pm

If you remember Frank saying above it would be good for the southern energy to hang back a bit and stay apart from the arctic front I think the NAM indicates some of that. The southern energy seems to keep its own identity and the arctic front up north is less dominant. Then the southern energy consolidates over the Carolinas and swings north. Not sure how good this all is but it’s a better look than GFS:


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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by heehaw453 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:55 pm

Inside the 95 I wouldn’t expect more than c-1 attm. I think 81 corridor does best with this. Very frustrating winter. Hopefully this renders pleasant surprise.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm not sure but I can say that from the model runs surface the coast and even well inland is mostly rain again...and a flooding one at that. I'm sure that's what will happen I have no faith left in this winter or lack there of.

Saw that too, JMAN. Sad Just figured I might as well try to learn to read that yellow/red wind streak map. Seems to be Frank's go to, so...

I wish vegas would open a line for these threats. For this one, I dont like the cutter, but I'd jump on suppressed ots at -125. You could prob get 5-1 or better if you have the cajones to bet on the snow.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:00 pm

If the GFS is right this is an inch or two at best. A cold front alone in January won’t cut it. But if the NAM is right and a Low will be sitting over Delmarva Tuesday night with the 850 line well off the coast, I think things could be interesting.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:04 pm

I totally follow that Bill, well both posts, but that first one was awesome...thank you. very helpful

HeeHaw, are you thinking the 81 corridor gets snow from the northern boundary front, but that the 95 misses out b/c the southern stream coastal never comes together?

Or cutter? (I'm thinking it's this one  ^^)


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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