December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:01 am

Here is a great disco from Upton. Coastal peeps it never really was favored for our area but def don’t look away just yet. I have def seen things zero in on us last minute before. We have to see the track of the secondary pull away from the coast a little and we are back in business. 50miles will do. Either way it’s been a fun one to track. Happy for my inlanders. Go get some.


The evolution of this complex storm system can be broken down
into three stages.

The first stage will be Sunday and Sunday night. The warm front
will be a part of the low pressure system approaching the local
region. The warm front will likely stay south of Long Island
Sunday as secondary low pressure develops along the Delmarva by
late day. The low pressure is forecast to track east northeast
going south of Long Island Sunday night to eventually south of
Cape Cod.

Mid level factors are an approaching mid level low, exhibiting
more stretching to the northeast Sunday night and thereby
positive tilt. The upper level jet is southerly dominant with an
approaching left front quad to help enhance synoptic lift
Sunday night. Upper level low also approaches and has positive
tilt to it. The surface low will slow down and move south of
Long Island. It is far enough north with a consensus of model
solutions to bring in more easterly flow and thereby warmer low
level air across the coastal sections Sunday into Sunday night.

Initially, weather will be snow for all locations as an initial
cold dry environment will likely wet bulb to subfreezing with
the onset of precipitation Sunday morning. Then, the more
progressive nature of the mid and upper level features will
allow for a transition to rain along the coast with a wintry mix
inland Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The forecast
soundings showing warmth above freezing in the 850 to 700mb
layer moving in Sunday afternoon. Sfc temperatures will be the
difference maker between freezing rain or just rain, interior
likely to be below freezing, the transition line probably just
northwest of NYC. NYC and Long Island keeping with the plain
rain.

The second stage will be Monday. For Monday, the surface low
moves slowly towards the Cape Cod and Martha`s Vineyard and
Nantucket while deepening slightly. The mid and upper level
factors however do present a remarkable change. They both convey
the lows to become more stretched to the north, with thereby a
more negative change in tilt. Upper level jet and trough move
farther southward. So the factors are there to show
amplification which would favor a strengthening surface low. This
also would produce dynamic cooling of the atmospheric column,
allowing for more snow across the region.

The weather is forecast to transition from wintry mix inland
and rain at the coast to eventually all snow by the end of the
day. Brief wintry mix will be possible closer to coast Monday
into Monday night.

The third stage will be Monday night into Tuesday. This will be
when mid and upper level lows deepen more and become negatively
tilted, with a surface low that will generally move slowly
eastward to the vicinity of Cape Cod with some models indicating
more strengthening with the low more within the Gulf of Maine.
While precip is trending down, the resulting strengthening could
result in moderate to heavy precipitation for Southern
Connecticut and Long Island with the greater amount of forcing.
All precipitation would be snow with the colder air advecting in
on the backside of the low with the northerly flow.

Uncertainty with the third stage is with the deformation banding
with the low and how of that banding gets into the local area.
Low level inversion may be warm enough as shown in some model
guidance to keep some ice accumulation in the region from
freezing rain late Monday into Monday night. This is something
to watch for the coastal areas but thinking overall main precip
type should remain snow.

&

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:21 am

Meh guess we will have school here unless ice is a big threat, which they hint is possible, looks like if any day is going to be delayed or closed is tuesday, my school is totally different as we have three waves of busses 9am, 11:15am and 2:15pm, so if one set of busses cancels and the other doesnt can split our day or leave half staff which means I wouldn't have to go in or complete closure if all runs of the busses are cut and it appears to be bad enough that kids dropped off by their parents aren't going to come. So I guess these totals put out by NWS and the one recently posted from a met should be cut more than half for areas around NYC? Sounds like mainly a rain or mix event here, hoping thats wrong i hate sleet and frz, theres no point to it except i guess it would likely effect school.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:24 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Artechmetals on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:23 am

Hey mugs how far out from the city do you think it will not change over I’m in Wayne nj
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Post by aiannone on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:37 am

12z Nam basically never turns NENJ, NYC, SCT back to snow
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:46 am

aiannone wrote:12z Nam basically never turns NENJ, NYC, SCT back to snow

500mb ULL moves off the coast in the perfect position but 850 is right over top of us leading to that warm nose in the mid levels. Really annoying. Have to see it tighten up and track the N fringe just south of LI. As of the latest NAM it’s over LI into S CT creating the problem. But it’s still 48-72 hrs out so there is time for change.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by Irish on Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:47 am

Yup aiannone, the temps for me continue to rise and the snowfall predictions fall.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:02 am

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z Nam basically never turns NENJ, NYC, SCT back to snow

500mb ULL moves off the coast in the perfect position but 850 is right over top of us leading to that warm nose in the mid levels. Really annoying. Have to see it tighten up and track the N fringe just south of LI. As of the latest NAM it’s over LI into S CT creating the problem. But it’s still 48-72 hrs out so there is time for change.
ugh that really stinks. And we are in range now that we can prolly say this is close to what it will be. Congrats Hudson Valley and Albany math.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:03 am

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z Nam basically never turns NENJ, NYC, SCT back to snow

500mb ULL moves off the coast in the perfect position but 850 is right over top of us leading to that warm nose in the mid levels. Really annoying. Have to see it tighten up and track the N fringe just south of LI. As of the latest NAM it’s over LI into S CT creating the problem. But it’s still 48-72 hrs out so there is time for change.
the 06z 3km nam was great for everyone. They keep changing. I know windshield but still less than 24 hrs out?!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:05 am

A new thread has been started with my 1st call snow map.

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