December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Latest Euro is gung-snow, even down to the City, Long Island, N NJ (control top, mean bottom). We’re still a ways off from this potential storm so expect the ‘windshield wiper’ effect across the models til at least late Saturday.

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12z ICON is also snowy

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Where do I sign in the LHV?
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:11 pm

hyde345 wrote:CMC, Euro, Ukie all give northern areas big snows. I'm not completely sold on that because a lot of that is sleet but I think we get a plowable snow after all is said. Even GFS gives me 6 inches as upper level low tracks south and east of area.

hyde345, if we get 6 out of this I will be happy.Great early season snow that would be.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:26 pm

Dont fall asleep on this just yet. Obviously it’s all relative to where you live. Coastal peeps don’t fall asleep either. North shore vs south shore of LI could be singing diff tunes even.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by Irish on Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:39 pm

Even the forecast temps both highs and lows on weather.com changed overnight, skewing lower.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:20 pm

Good Lawd! The King has spoke!

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by Irish on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:33 pm

LMAO

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:46 pm

Jesus models at 12z went nuts. Even GFS trended in the right direction.

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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:54 pm

We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:57 pm

amugs wrote:We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum

A lot of people of have talked about that having an effect on the winter weather. One met said that the solar minimums coincided with winters like 95/96 and some other big producers. Maybe something to that?

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Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:57 pm

HOLY EURO! shocked
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Post by Irish on Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:58 pm

Details Frank... DETAILS!! lol

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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum

A lot of people of have talked about that having an effect on the winter weather.  One met said that the solar minimums coincided with winters like 95/96 and some other big producers.  Maybe something to that?

haw I have been investigating ad following for sometime now nd will do a post later not to clog this up but 95/96 was a small solar minimum compared to this one I mean a like a pebble compared to a Mount Washington ways.
SPOTLESS DAYS:
Current Stretch: 15 days
2019 total: 251 days (76%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 28 Nov 2019

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.68x1010 W Cold - THIS IS A MAJOR PLAYER GOING FORWARD.

The H5 evolutions are aligning among the models and surface depictions are starting to catch up IMO.

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Post by aiannone on Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:32 pm

Holy euro!
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:40 pm

This will trend even better I have a feeling coastal areas will get it good
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:14 pm

Busy all day love to come see exciting euro!! Maybe have leave ct Saturday. What's the timing on this?
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus models at 12z went nuts. Even GFS trended in the right direction.
no m word yet? Maybe tomorrow if this continues lol. Reel it in Frank!! So I'm guessing the bad look u spoke of earlier has trended much better? 18z gfs gives me 6 plus!
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Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:48 pm

I know it’s early and things could change Janice from channel 4 news has the city 1 to 3 inches of snow 3 to 5 north and west of the city it’s getting Exciting bring omg the ❄ ⛄

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:26 pm

Hwo issued taking about a slow moving storm lasting over 24 hrs! Sunday afternoon to Monday night. But a change to rain they saying for coast. Omg can u imagine if it snowed entire time!
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Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:29 pm

Man, I tune out to spend a few Thanksgiving hours with family and all heck breaks loose. Lol. JMan, it really is a two part event: the overrunning event ahead of the low on Sunday with snow changing to rain; then the low developing and strengthening off the coast Monday wrapping snow in behind it from Monday AM through Monday evening. That is the main snow maker. But still a few days off, so let’s track and see how it develops.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:40 pm

Oh my goodness was so busy with family ..did not even think about weather the last 2 days....I am glad we have something to teack.!!hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!!
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:01 pm

A thing of beauty

"Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-300030-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Confidence is increasing in a slow moving low pressure system
bringing snow and wintry mix to the region Sunday through Monday
Night. There is potential for several inches of snowfall during this
time period, causing significant travel impacts to the Sunday
afternoon/evening through Monday Night commutes. Read the Ode.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed."
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:55 am

The 0Z ECMWF OP has a Roidzilla just south of Albany.

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I know it's several days out.  But if it were to verify, I would get a good one there.

As Frank would say: MADONNE!

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:57 am

Being three days out there are most likely going to be +/- 50-100 mile differences in the ULL track.  People along and north of Rt 80 are in the good spot ATTM. Note the trough tilt in upper picture is more neutral (bigger snows) but ULL is just a hair north and less consolidated than the bottom one.

My bottom line is some people are going to get a lot of snow, and the ULL track is the big difference maker.  That track can even fluctuate 24 hours beforehand.  Buckle up.


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Old
December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 3 Gfsclo11

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:31 am

Holy euro...it doesn't really change to rain as much coasties even see a few inches and just 20 miles inland up to 8 to 12. Doc and those well north see Godzilla totals. Need this just a tad south of 00z and everyone sees one heck of a Dec snowstorm which we haven't seen in a long time.
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Post by dsix85 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:00 am

Is this an overrunning or two part event with the first wave coming through Sunday and then the storm developing off the coast and that’s the main piece of energy that will drive the precip totals? Do we anticipate this to undergo bombogenesis?

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