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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:47 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:We better hope this Solar Event doesn't happen sooner than later or man will be sent back to pre electric days. Many will be in periless situations. Massive solar flares that just rock our planet thus knocking out, frying up & rendering our electrical gadgets, appliances and grid useless and it is not a quick fix like days or weeks.
Read for oneself.
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/08/30/a-warning-from-history-the-carrington-event-was-not-unique/

Such a great point.  This isn't a matter of if, but rather when.  

Scott EXACTLY!! There are methods to harden our grid from this but the 13k satellites that we depend on from navigation to communications to weather predictions would be basically destroyed. It is a very unnerving scenario that would have a huge cascading affect, just look at the Quebwx blackout of 1989 before the PC and cell phone and all of this tele equipment.
This what is tell tale of what could be and we need luck to avoid it a bit longer.

July 2012, NASA and European spacecraft watched an extreme solar storm erupt from the sun and narrowly miss Earth. “If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” announced Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado at a NOAA Space Weather Workshop 2 years later. “It might have been stronger than the Carrington Event itself.”

USA, Trump signed a bill to resource millions to harden our grid since signing the bill from EMPs either man made or naturally occurring

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:51 pm

From Chris Martz on Twitter.
Whoa! This would be crazy *IF* it were to verify.

According to the 00z ECMWF, Denver, CO will reach 96 degrees MON afternoon before plummeting to 19 by THU morning with over a foot of snow on the ground.

The 12z is less aggressive, and more probable.

Worth watching 👀 https://t.co/PlSa3Lyn1H

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Post by algae888 on Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:47 am

Good day to all. Haven't posted in a while but now as we enter fall we start to get a feel for what our winter will look like here are a few thoughts. As of now it is looking bleak. Just about every indicator says our winter will suck. Basin wide weak nina looks like a lock which means an Aleutian high and WAR with a trough center over the central US with tropical forcing over the maritime continent (mjo phases 4 thru 6) UGH. Main storm track through the Great Lakes . +QBO which often indicates a + AO and NAO ( which often happens in ninas). - pdo, warm waters over the western atlantic should only enhance the WAR. Our only hope is that the year following the solar minimum we have seen high-latitude blocking in the past but I wouldn't get my hopes up that it would happen this year as for whatever reason the Nao has been in a positive state for many years now during winter. I think we'll see some decent cold snaps especially early on this winter but probably cold and dry then warm and wet with cutter after cutter. Hopefully we'll see some positive changes as we head throughout the fall but as of now not looking very good
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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:54 am

@algae888 wrote:Good day to all. Haven't posted in a while but now as we enter fall we start to get a feel for what our winter will look like here are a few thoughts. As of now it is looking bleak. Just about every indicator says our winter will suck. Basin wide weak nina looks like a lock which means an Aleutian high and WAR with a  trough center over the central US with tropical forcing over the maritime continent (mjo phases 4 thru 6) UGH. Main storm track through the Great Lakes . +QBO which often indicates a + AO and NAO ( which often happens in ninas). - pdo, warm waters over the western atlantic should only enhance the WAR. Our only hope is that the year following the solar minimum we have seen high-latitude blocking in the past but I wouldn't get my hopes up that it would happen this year as for whatever reason the Nao has been in a positive state for many years now during winter. I think we'll see some decent cold snaps especially early on this winter but probably cold and dry then warm and wet with cutter after cutter. Hopefully we'll see some positive changes as we head throughout the fall but as of now not looking very good

yep, not looking good, CPC has projected a warmer winter for our area, and unless we have a period where everything aligns just right, I'm not expecting much. But Colorado and Wyoming are in for some snow this week! lol

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:31 pm

@algae888 wrote:Good day to all. Haven't posted in a while but now as we enter fall we start to get a feel for what our winter will look like here are a few thoughts. As of now it is looking bleak. Just about every indicator says our winter will suck. Basin wide weak nina looks like a lock which means an Aleutian high and WAR with a  trough center over the central US with tropical forcing over the maritime continent (mjo phases 4 thru 6) UGH. Main storm track through the Great Lakes . +QBO which often indicates a + AO and NAO ( which often happens in ninas). - pdo, warm waters over the western atlantic should only enhance the WAR. Our only hope is that the year following the solar minimum we have seen high-latitude blocking in the past but I wouldn't get my hopes up that it would happen this year as for whatever reason the Nao has been in a positive state for many years now during winter. I think we'll see some decent cold snaps especially early on this winter but probably cold and dry then warm and wet with cutter after cutter. Hopefully we'll see some positive changes as we head throughout the fall but as of now not looking very good
I believe the winter of 95-96 had a weak Nina and that season rocked. Besides I no longer have great confidence in long range forecasting with the past two winters busting badly. I do agree though that the lack of a -NAO puts the winter at a disadvantage if you’re looking for cold and snow.
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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:57 pm

Algae,

JB says +3 to +5 temperature departure for Dec ro Feb with normal snowfall. Yes for us it looks blah this winter where people will be claiming GW while the central US and will be in a deep freeze. All part of the Meridional jet stream that is being a result of the Grand Solar Minimum that NOAA and Zarkova Russian Scientists who has written numerous papers on the sun and discovered solar geomagnetic variability of sun dynamics to put it simply. We are starting this cycle that will last until about 2050 from both thei write ups. What does this mean you ask?

Extreme weather events, cold, hot, storms, hail storms, areas of the world will have massive pattern changes, droughts.

More Eatmrthquakes and more severe
Many and stronger Volcano's

Possible destruction of our electrical circuit unit here earth.

Crop /Food disruption and redistribute the farming regions.

Disease

Meteors

Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Flares that will knock out the modern worlds electrical system in parts that are hit by these and its not a rehmgion but continents in the hemispheres.

This is happening already, 6.0 EQ have been happening more regularly, extremely volatile weather, meteors passing close by space standards and hitting earth lately, droughts, crop.losses, food disruption, .any volcanic eruptions and strong ones, etc

Great plains are goi g to go from summer i to winter in 48 hours with a snowstorm. This will roll eastward and the crops and livestock are at stake here. The farmers don't have the time to protect all.

Denver will go from a high of 95 today to a low Tuesday night of 20!!!

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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:50 pm

Crazy
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 9 20200912
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Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 9 20200914

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by HectorO on Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:27 pm

@amugs wrote:Algae,


Sweet, so winter is already over in September? Well the last 2 have been crap anyways, what's another?


JB says +3 to +5 temperature departure for Dec ro Feb with normal snowfall. Yes for us it looks blah this winter where people will be claiming GW while the central US and will be in a deep freeze. All part of the Meridional jet stream that is being a result of the Grand Solar Minimum that NOAA and Zarkova Russian Scientists who has written numerous papers on the sun and discovered solar geomagnetic variability of sun dynamics to put it simply. We are starting this cycle that will last until about 2050 from both thei write ups. What does this mean you ask?

Extreme weather events, cold, hot, storms, hail storms, areas of the world will have massive pattern changes, droughts.

More Eatmrthquakes and more severe
Many and stronger Volcano's

Possible destruction of our electrical circuit unit here earth.

Crop /Food disruption and redistribute the farming regions.

Disease

Meteors

Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Flares that will knock out the modern worlds electrical system in parts that are hit by these and its not a rehmgion but continents in the hemispheres.

This is happening already, 6.0 EQ have been happening more regularly, extremely volatile weather, meteors passing close by space standards and hitting earth lately, droughts, crop.losses, food disruption, .any volcanic eruptions and strong ones, etc

Great plains are goi g to go from summer i to winter in 48 hours with a snowstorm. This will roll eastward and the crops and livestock are at stake here. The farmers don't have the time to protect all.

Denver will go from a high of 95 today to a low Tuesday night of 20!!!

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:35 am

Hector, even in the worst of winters, a surprise snowstorm hits.The winter of 1994-1995 was a particularly bad one for snow lover in between excellent winters of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996.There was that February 1995 snowstorm of over 12 inches.
I am always skeptical of long range forecasts, they can't even get right at times a week out much less 3 to 6 months.
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Post by HectorO on Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:20 am

True, this is the first time I'm hearing a bad winter. Others have said cold and snowy. In terms of winter. One snowstorm doesn't make up a bad winter for me though even if it's a big one because it warms up again and is gone so soon.

@docstox12 wrote:Hector, even in the worst of winters, a surprise snowstorm hits.The winter of 1994-1995 was a particularly bad one for snow lover in between excellent winters of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996.There was that February 1995 snowstorm of over 12 inches.
I am always skeptical of long range forecasts, they can't even get right at times a week out much less 3 to 6 months.
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:17 am

Hector,

I agree, a real winter is like '93-'94 and '95-'96, where the ground is snow covered from early December through mid April.
There was a God awful one, maybe 1997-1998, where there was only a 5 or 6 inch storm in March that melted the next day.

At this juncture, we hear everything from warm and dry to cold and snowy.The Farmers Almanac predicts a February blizzard of one to two feet.
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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:02 pm

All I know is winter has settled in foothill and eastern Rockies region. SE Colorado may get 2-3 feet above 6000 feet. Crop losses are gling ro be bad in Idaho, Montana. Wyoming, Colorado from this. Imagine swimming on Sunday in 9p's temps ro shoveling snow today?!

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:31 pm

Mugsy, truly an amazing change in temperature.
When I read of these events, I always go back to an article I read many years ago where people were sunbathing in warm temps a few days before the Blizzard of 1888.Weather is an amazing study when events like these occur.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:24 am

NJ Earthquake at 2AM last night 10 miles outside Freehold.

https://twitter.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1303580632577175552?s=20

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:26 am

Check out Jackson Hole, Wyoming this morning - winter wonderland!!
https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1303480138454233088?s=20

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:28 am

Summer heat on the left and summer snow 2 days later on the right. Extremes of weather.

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:06 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:37 pm

Cali Wildfires - this is a tweet from Mike Shellenberger who WAS a huge proponent of AGW that was changed to Climate Change. He recently published a book released on June 15th that went against his 30 years of research with this saying this is not true for the reasoning behind this said theory/movement ideology. Here is what he has to say (he lives out in Cali all his life to boot) about the wildfires

Mike Shellenberger
@ShellenbergerMD
·
Sep 11
Stop politicizing a tragedy

California's top *forest* scientists say main causes of fires are

- 5x more wood fuel in forests due to 100+ years of fire suppression

- Drought (2012-16) that would have occurred w/o climate change
Quote Tweet
What was impact of a 15-20% more intense drought? Well, one thing we know is that it didn't kill anybody

By contrast, (pre-climate change) drought of 1876 - 78 killed 50M

Prosperity (eg irrigation, fertilizer, desal plants, etc) outweigh climate
People are missing what's important about fires & climate change so I made this short vid

- Well-managed forests surviving despite cl. ch.

- 5x more wood fuel in forests means mega-fires were likely w/o cc

We are not doomed to, nor need accept, megafires & mega-smoke!



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:57 pm

Mugsy,
Agree with you.Instead of proper forest management, they build multi billion dollar trains to nowhere.Then they blame climate change.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:01 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Mugsy,
Agree with you.Instead of proper forest management, they build multi billion dollar trains to nowhere.Then they blame climate change.

In Oregon the politicians on the left are crying climate change for their wildfires meanwhile authorities have arrested their 5Th individual in connection with arson of said fires. It’s a joke what these politicians have been doing. And people eat it up.

facepalm

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:14 pm

Doc, yes, I forgot to mention that as well.Arson is a factor in these fires.
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Post by frank 638 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:51 pm

Did anyone see today’s sunset it was Spectacular Beautiful colors Orange and red

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:13 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Did anyone see today’s sunset it was Spectacular Beautiful colors Orange and red

Yes!!! It was unbelievable.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by dkodgis on Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:29 pm

Aw man I missed it. Photos?
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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:58 pm

A very respected and super intelligent scientist on the topic of CC and the wildfires.
https://youtu.be/78E4nRfZnQM

The sun today looked apocalyptic around here kept temps 3-4 degrees below normal.


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More smokey sky for manana since the smoke level will drop.
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