Re: Tropical Storm Isaias

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right

lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

by **aiannone** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:26 pm

18z Euro and HRRR wow

NJwx - Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 65e06f10

NJwx - Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 5d72b410

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Models are for guidance! lol Mother Nature will do what she damn well pleases! lol!

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:28 pm

Big storm coming through.

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...

NJwx - Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10

by **billg315** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...

Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...

hey hats off to you if your right. Just means worse rain and wind for the area rather than just wind. Though you are talking a very small jog.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:32 pm

billg315 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down" Eventually they get it right
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...

Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.

that could be bad too might allow him to msintain more and obviously the rain would be more impactful.

by **frank 638** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.

omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightning

by **billg315** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:34 pm

Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:41 pm

billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.

I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:42 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.
omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightning

Yeah i got soaked had run out thought i had time, nope. winds whipped for a minute, some lightning, nothing like i think the storm a week ago. and this is nothing tomorrow potentially sustained winds 40-50mph gusts higher especially now with a stronger storm, even if a bit east i think nyc and just N & W still see winds but more rain. Whatever happens happens, oh we will likely have to contend with some tornado warnings too, and NWS said a tornado watch is likely.

by **billg315** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.

Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:47 pm

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.

Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.

Yeah i got a email from coned earlier but they always do that, its just a generic prep letter, well im not so keen on having no power for multiple days but i guess i cant have a good wind storm without that potential, its go be freaking swealtering inside if so. Order 711 door dash lol, you could get out now or in the morning, it wont be bad till after noon id guess.

by **billg315** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:47 pm

From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:50 pm

billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

Oh wow, yeah well he is intensifying unexpectedly and with the enhancement from the jet he may maintain near cat 1 up here now. maybe dropping to 70 or 75mph, imagine if all the ts warnings are upped to hurricane warnings, people will go nuts. doubt that happens but who knows. Con ed is def not saying anything like that and im very close to the coast.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:51 pm

aiannone wrote:18z Euro and HRRR wow

Holy crap I don't like what I am seeing on that model

by **frank 638** Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:52 pm

billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

i hope they are wrong With the winds because Last thing we need is power outages or worse especially dealing with this heat Stay safe everyone

by mwilli Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:52 pm

Jones beach?, I'm located a block from Hoestra,Meadowbrook pkwy is five min straight to Jones beach..long day tomorrow

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:02 pm

still strengethening, 984mb.

by **amugs** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:03 pm

RI Mom means Rapid Intensification to clear up my language for you and everyone else who had the same question

he is very impressive now and my friend in Oak Island, NC said the surf just went nuts about an hour ago and winds are much stronger now.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:03 pm

billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:07 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!

tahts good, coned are POS, they dont prepare much and then we wait even longer cuz of it. down to 983mb jeeze, RI for sure.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:11 pm

Call me crazy but im hearing on other boards that due to the jet etc and going hybrid extratropical etc he could actually maintain at hurricane strength and many TS warnings would have to be converted to hurricane warnings. I do not think thats impossible, so far this storm has done a lot of surprises for better and worse.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:15 pm

WOW...

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

by **amugs** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:19 pm

FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:

Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary

If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:21 pm

amugs wrote:FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:
Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary
If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination

Wow, NY should follow suit, just to be safe, Cuomo is smart enough to do so.

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