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Tropical Storm Isaias

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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Models are for guidance! lol Mother Nature will do what she damn well pleases! lol!

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:28 pm

Big storm coming through.
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down"  Eventually they get it right told ya
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play. I still like the eastern side of the cone. I could be wrong...

Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10

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Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down"  Eventually they get it right told ya
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play.  I still like the eastern side of the cone.  I could be wrong...

Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10

Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:31 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down"  Eventually they get it right told ya
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play.  I still like the eastern side of the cone.  I could be wrong...

Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10
hey hats off to you if your right. Just means worse rain and wind for the area rather than just wind. Though you are talking a very small jog.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I dunno Scott models have it pretty nailed down but we see. Scott does the increase now potentially mean he will be worse up here with the enhancement.

Oh Jon the models..yes the models have it "nailed down"  Eventually they get it right told ya
lol true enough . but there is good consensus.

Im not talking about a huge shift but the eastern side of the latest forecast cone still has my LI landfall between Jones bach and Long Beach in play.  I still like the eastern side of the cone.  I could be wrong...

Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 Track_10

Scott I’m feeling you on this. I said earlier these storms always trend eastward (well not always, but often) so I wouldn’t be surprised if that inland NJ track becomes a just off the NJ coast track.
that could be bad too might allow him to msintain more and obviously the rain would be more impactful.
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.
omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightning

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Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:34 pm

Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:41 pm

@billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:42 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Big storm coming through.
omg it’s really Coming down By me Heavy rain very windy And lots of lightning
Yeah i got soaked had run out thought i had time, nope. winds whipped for a minute, some lightning, nothing like i think the storm a week ago. and this is nothing tomorrow potentially sustained winds 40-50mph gusts higher especially now with a stronger storm, even if a bit east i think nyc and just N & W still see winds but more rain.  Whatever happens happens, oh we will likely have to contend with some tornado warnings too, and NWS said a tornado watch is likely.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.

Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:47 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Correct-a-Mundo JMan. That would shift the 4-6” rains over all of NJ and NYC while still keeping damaging winds along the coast.
I wanted to see some winds you know me, damn if its just rain here.

Oh I think even if this shifts East a bit, you’ll still see winds. Just heard that the power companies are preparing for a multi-day power outage event. I knew I should have stocked up on junk food.
Yeah i got a email from coned earlier but they always do that, its just a generic prep letter, well im not so keen on having no power for multiple days but i guess i cant have a good wind storm without that potential, its go be freaking swealtering inside if so. Order 711 door dash lol, you could get out now or in the morning, it wont be bad till after noon id guess.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:47 pm

From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:50 pm

@billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
Oh wow, yeah well he is intensifying unexpectedly and with the enhancement from the jet he may maintain near cat 1 up here now. maybe dropping to 70 or 75mph, imagine if all the ts warnings are upped to hurricane warnings, people will go nuts. doubt that happens but who knows. Con ed is def not saying anything like that and im very close to the coast.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:51 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z Euro and HRRR wow
Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 65e06f10
Tropical Storm Isaias - Page 3 5d72b410
Holy crap I don't like what I am seeing on that model
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:52 pm

@billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”
i hope they are wrong With the winds because Last thing we need is power outages or worse especially dealing with this heat Stay safe everyone

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Post by mwilli on Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:52 pm

Jones beach?, I'm located a block from Hoestra,Meadowbrook pkwy is five min straight to Jones beach..long day tomorrow

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:02 pm

still strengethening, 984mb.
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Post by amugs on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:03 pm

RI Mom means Rapid Intensification to clear up my language for you and everyone else who had the same question

he is very impressive now and my friend in Oak Island, NC said the surf just went nuts about an hour ago and winds are much stronger now.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:03 pm

@billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:07 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@billg315 wrote:From PSE&G:
“ As PSE&G continues to monitor Isaias, our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach New Jersey in years and some outages could last for an extended period.”

PSEG had a conference call with OEM people today, they are bringing in 800 technicians to NJ for tomorrow. They are taking it VERY seriously!
tahts good, coned are POS, they dont prepare much and then we wait even longer cuz of it. down to 983mb jeeze, RI for sure.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:11 pm

Call me crazy but im hearing on other boards that due to the jet etc and going hybrid extratropical etc he could actually maintain at hurricane strength and many TS warnings would have to be converted to hurricane warnings. I do not think thats impossible, so far this storm has done a lot of surprises for better and worse.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:15 pm

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Post by amugs on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:19 pm

FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:
☑Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary
☑If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:21 pm

@amugs wrote:FOR NJ
UPDATE: I am declaring a STATEWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY for Hurricane Isaias effective at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, August 4, 2020:
☑Do not be on the roads unless absolutely necessary
☑If you MUST drive, take it slow, use caution, and leave extra time to get to your destination
Wow, NY should follow suit, just to be safe, Cuomo is smart enough to do so.
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