Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:02 am

GFS says hello again

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by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:09 am

I have started a thread!

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:10 am

Irish wrote:TWC is now predicting 4-8" for my area Monday-Tuesday.

If you can stay on the cold side of baroclinic zone I think that amount range is possible. Cold surface for sure as dew points will be low. GFS continues to be aggressive with the precipitation. I know it does show some shredding as it moves east, but may not play out that with with Atlantic enhancement.

by Koroptim Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 am

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:28 am

Anyone else intrigued by 1/28 threat? I sure am.

by **phil155** Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:07 pm

1/28 certainly looks like it can be rather interesting

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:08 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Anyone else intrigued by 1/28 threat? I sure am.

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by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Anyone else intrigued by 1/28 threat? I sure am.

Yes, but potential issue is the dis-jointment of the jets. Is there enough room for that beast to come north? At the moment, I don't think so.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Anyone else intrigued by 1/28 threat? I sure am.

Yes, but potential issue is the dis-jointment of the jets. Is there enough room for that beast to come north? At the moment, I don't think so.

For sure Frank. 00z to 12z on the Canadian shows how it can be done. Verbatim much improved ridge amplification and where the axis is to the west. All it would take is a little more amplification or if the TPV shifted north by just a tiny bit. While the odds are against it making it up far enough north the ceiling of this threat if it panned out perfectly could be madonne worthy...thats whats so intriguing.

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by **algae888** Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:46 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Anyone else intrigued by 1/28 threat? I sure am.

Yes but I more intrigued by the February 1st one as the vortex rotates out and some weakening of the nao and ao. One thing for sure plenty of storms to track the next 10 days

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:16 pm

That's close enough for my interests. That'd even get southern NJ in the game. Anyway this is D6 so there is time for changes. I'd be happy to see the models keep the storm next few days.

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by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:25 pm

Remember Tuesdays storm has bearing on what the next storm does. Let's take it one at a time but itbis exciting to see the possibilities

by **amugs** Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:16 pm

EPS start to move north with the cluster 6bdays out in good shape

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by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:23 pm

LOL! This system needs to be watched.

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by **Irish** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:36 pm

heehaw453 wrote:LOL! This system needs to be watched.

Funny, that looks like it could be a big hit and yet they have flurries listed for the 28th. I know it's still 5-6 days out, and we have another system hitting first, but figured they'd have something more substantial forecast. Guess not, pretty pumped to see things unfold.

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:45 pm

I guess it would be an unforgiveable breach of protocol to go rogue and actually forecast vs. McWeather. However truth be told...who is accurate anymore a week out? I guess that would be like saying who wins the game within the first quarter. Would be speculation.

Doc, tell me if I am wrong...when we were waifs, did it not seem like weatherpeople had better forecasts even a week out? Forecasting temps...good...but it seems to me weather forecasters tend to be most accurate during summer while they tend to be least accurate during fall and winter. Maybe summer weather is easier to predict than winter weather.

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:49 pm

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:LOL! This system needs to be watched.

Funny, that looks like it could be a big hit and yet they have flurries listed for the 28th. I know it's still 5-6 days out, and we have another system hitting first, but figured they'd have something more substantial forecast. Guess not, pretty pumped to see things unfold.

This is an evolving system that models are starting to hint at more consistently now. This also is consistent with a relaxation of the AO and NAO.

This is a significant signal for 5+ days out by the GEFS. CMC is also hinting at it. Let's just see if we can get some run to run consistency on this...

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by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:45 am

The 06Z GFS is a blizzard from DC to PHL including all southern NJ consistent with 0Z within 5+ days. NYC gets in on the act too just not nearly as bad. Supported by the GEFS.

Hard to speculate how far north this can come, but i remember a little storm in January 2016 that nobody thought NYC had any chance of getting the jackpot even 48 hours out. For now I just want to see the storm consistently show and appear like this on other models.

Also this shortwave is coming ashore in about 40 hours and it comes into northern CA just as the one that will affect on on Monday. This one blows up because of the ridging behind it. The ridging is very important in the bigger storms.

I guess we'll see if this holds any water shortly...

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by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:07 am

I’m definitely more excited with this wave than I was 24 hours ago. All major models point significant snow in this direction. Also, our mid level lows finally track south of us instead of west or north. This is why models have snow as far north as NYC even though the main low is way down near DC.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:11 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I’m definitely more excited with this wave than I was 24 hours ago. All major models point significant snow in this direction. Also, our mid level lows finally track south of us instead of west or north. This is why models have snow as far north as NYC even though the main low is way down near DC.

I want to see to more modeling come on board before I get anymore enthusiastic about this. No other major model is as aggressive as the GFS currently. But there is ensemble support at least for several runs now on the GEFS.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:20 am

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I’m definitely more excited with this wave than I was 24 hours ago. All major models point significant snow in this direction. Also, our mid level lows finally track south of us instead of west or north. This is why models have snow as far north as NYC even though the main low is way down near DC.

I want to see to more modeling come on board before I get anymore enthusiastic about this. No other major model is as aggressive as the GFS currently. But there is ensemble support at least for several runs now on the GEFS.

Agreed. GFS and CMC were close to something big but until the EURO comes on board I’m highly skeptical. We need the NAO to relax some for it to come north.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:51 am

Hope someone didn’t pull the plug on winter too soon yesterday. Wink

Two solid systems to track this week.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:58 am

If you take this mornings GFS verbatim it gives us five Storm signals to watch between this Monday and the Super Bowl. Pattern does seem to be getting active.

by **Irish** Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:07 am

billg315 wrote:Hope someone didn’t pull the plug on winter too soon yesterday. Two solid systems to track this week.

Paging rb... lmao!

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:26 am

Irish wrote:
billg315 wrote:Hope someone didn’t pull the plug on winter too soon yesterday. Two solid systems to track this week.

Paging rb... lmao!

Not for nothing but no verification on anything yet for these late January threats. I have a paltry one inch of snow for January to date and nothing worthy of mentioning since Dec 17. Many of the board members January is their snowiest month and I'm pretty sure they're in the same boat w.r.t. January totals. We shall see what actually materializes for the rest of January. But agree at least there is something to track which last year there was not.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:48 am

Well it all comes down to whether anything verifies as always. But the encouraging thing is I remember looking at the models two or three weeks ago and there was nothing of interest for the entire runs. Zippo. Not anything to even get excited about. Actually I’d say in that sense they were right on target because they didn’t show anything interesting and we got nothing interesting. Now at least they are hinting at - or actually showing - activity. That activity may or may not pan out, but it’s better than looking at a two week run with vast nothingness like earlier this month. Lol.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:51 am

Heck even if I only get 2” of snow Monday, that combined with the 1” I got this past Wednesday morning probably tops last January, not to mention the December storm. So I’ll take this winter over last already.

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