Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

billg315 wrote:Might need to pump the heights up a little more off the coast to turn that thing north on Thursday (1/28) no? With the first storm sliding off the coast just a couple days before, does that create/keep the upper air progression too "flat" along the coast for the Thursday storm to get far enough north for a major event here?

I think the ridging out west determines the fate of this potential.  If you put this ridge in plains 100 miles west then this storm has more room to come up as the trough would have more time to go negative and rise the heights on the EC. Even as it stands as shown anyone NYC south would probably get something from this verbatim. It's hard not to be intrigued at this even if it misses us...

12Z EURO

I think I’m settling in to where I was early this week on this. A 2-4” type event with some mixing possible for those to the south. Obviously a lot to be hammered out in the next three days but that seems the safest place to put my chips right now.

Based on the latest EPS weeklies there could be two major stratospheric warming events (winds reverse at 10hPa & 60N) separated by a month. This seems to me to be unprecedented in the observational record & highlights the complexity & challenge of forecasting the combined impacts pic.twitter.com/36B4IObv73

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 21, 2021

A secondary warming event is predicted to take place in the Stratosphere in the coming week. Will secondary warming event be the final blow to the Stratospheric Polar Vortex? pic.twitter.com/p78D0EJ2kE

— Doc V (@MJVentrice) January 21, 2021

amugs wrote:

A secondary warming event is predicted to take place in the Stratosphere in the coming week. Will secondary warming event be the final blow to the Stratospheric Polar Vortex? pic.twitter.com/p78D0EJ2kE

— Doc V (@MJVentrice) January 21, 2021

I wonder if this will end up being a one-two knockout punch so to speak. The first event creating a marginal cold lobe giving us the next week's slightly BN temps, and kind of greasing the skids for the second wave to be bringing us a much deeper shot of cold air in early-to mid February.

"Will secondary warming event be the final blow to the Stratospheric Polar Vortex?"

Does this mean the final blow is the polar vortex won't make it down here or do you mean the final blow is the polar vortex will make it down here?

...because I am a dolt. I don't rightly understand. Help a senior citizen out. Thanks.

dkodgis wrote:"Will secondary warming event be the final blow to the Stratospheric Polar Vortex?"

Does this mean the final blow is the polar vortex won't make it down here or do you mean the final blow is the polar vortex will make it down here?

...because I am a dolt. I don't rightly understand. Help a senior citizen out. Thanks.

As in final blow that splits the PV or breaks it up sending it’s cold south into the continental US potentially. This would be a good thing. If you like very cold air.

Thank you. I like very cold air. It is what I split wood for. Yay!

Damian it would likely split the PV once and for all.
Good post here.

Trends on recent EPS runs for the 50/50 low to be farther east, a slower & more consolidated shortwave, more amped SE ridge, and location of the PV over S'rn Canada all support the more amped/north solutions for Mon-Tues. The trough over the SW may also influence this either way. pic.twitter.com/7xySG2EdvI

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) January 21, 2021

A tad wetter as t keep ticking North with LE

Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

Well and there it is. I respect you calling them as you see them. It's unfortunate, and this winter, other than that one storm, has been pretty disappointing so far. We'll see where it goes from here, thx for chiming in. Look forward to the runs tomorrow and over the weekend...

Hey all, been pretty busy and have lurked a few times (not a word I have ever used lol) and haven't seen much to talk about. Just wanted to say hello and though things do not look great from what I just read from RB maybe we can squeeze out one storm (or maybe we pull a backloaded winter, which I would prefer not (I will explain that reasoning in banter maybe), anyways I am just relieved I can say this was NOT the worst season of the decade lol.  Anything more we are already double last year in my area.  It just kills me so much I remember so many storms all winter long when I was a kid and even not that many years ago, in fact my signature shows those crazy years where even here I had over 50 inches which is double our average. Hopefully one day we can go back to that.  I would love to have a driveway or designated parking spot before that if possible lol

The GFS is trending MUCH wetter for this event.  Those that stay on the right side of the baroclinic zone will do quite well IMO. We are not going be able to nail down the thermals profile until Saturday evening at the earliest. More likely Sunday...

Huge differences in last 24 hours.

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

Nah Ray. No riots here. Unlike our mainstream media world your opinion won’t be censored or incite riots just because your view point doesn’t fit the narrative.  

All kidding aside after reading your comments I for the life of me cannot figure out what it is your seeing that makes you think this storm will trend so far north that northern New England will even see a flurry from this particular system let alone the best snows.  Do you really feel like the southern energy will consolidate enough to amplify and raise heights enough to push that far north.  I mean there is a legit west based -NAO block and a legit 50/50 ULL position.




Even though I disagree for likely some of my personal biases on top of my objective unbiased attempts at reading the pattern I’d love a little extra understanding as to your reasoning with Monday Tuesday system if you have time.

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

rb, no need to hide in fear on our board.It is what higher education USED to be in this country, a place where all ideas can be discussed and debated without rancor or violence , so all can benefit from the knowledge we will get.I do not recollect coining the term "warmacist", think that was mugsy or cp,LOL.
You and the other amateur Mets on this site have powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men, but a mortal man like myself goes by 60 years of observing winters around here and since the first week of November, all the big snowstorms have been hitting the Central and North Central CONUS.These patterns, once they set, last a long time and this one is not helping us albeit the December snowstorm.A good pattern is one like 1960-1961, 1993-1994 or 1995-1996.They lock in and give us the works!

docstox12 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:Just waiting for rb to come in here and share his 2 cents on things for the next week or so. Hoping it's not doom and gloom...

I was hoping that I could hide in peace for fear of inciting riots for my recent stretch of “warmicist” views, a term coined by our very own docstox, if I recall correctly haha but, my previous ideas presented many days ago remain unchanged in that I believe that this event will likely end up favoring central and northern New England for the best snows, unfortunately, with mostly slop for our general region. And I know this wasn’t asked, but personally, I very may well pull the plug on this winter by the end of the month. I absolutely DO NOT LIKE what I’m seeing evolving hemispherically.

rb, no need to hide in fear on our board.It is what higher education USED to be in this country, a place where all ideas can be discussed and debated without rancor or violence , so all can benefit from the knowledge we will get.I do not recollect coining the term "warmacist", think that was mugsy or cp,LOL.
You and the other amateur Mets on this site have powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men, but a mortal man like myself goes by 60 years of observing winters around here and since the first week of November, all the big snowstorms have been hitting the Central and North Central CONUS.These patterns, once they set, last a long time and this one is not helping us albeit the December snowstorm.A good pattern is one like 1960-1961, 1993-1994 or 1995-1996.They lock in and give us the works!

Good memory Doc, I did begin the Warmaciist label and I believe it was directed at Math23X7 during one of his posts explaining why an impending snow storm wouldn't hit us. It was during the OTI days when I also called for his tar and feathering.

RB has been a suspected Warmacist for several years. If OTI was still habitable I would be sending requests to the OTI director of Security (the recently resurrected SNOWMAN) to have his phone, emails and social media accounts deleted or locked.

That was the beauty of OTI, no Warmacist were tolerated. We were a Utopian society of snow lovers. We of course would listen to all Warmacists and their nonsense, and when they had identified themselves as such, tied them up and put them a one way raft back to the mainland. I miss the good old days.

TWC is now predicting 4-8" for my area Monday-Tuesday.

GFS became very bullish on the snow threat for Monday night in this mornings runs. Canadian also still a decent hit. Let’s see where the Euro goes.

Speak for yourselves about tolerating rb’s views. Rb, I’ve sentenced many boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn’t want to; felt I owed it to them.


p.s. rb, this is of course in jest. Bonus points if anyone gets the movie reference.

billg315 wrote:Speak for yourselves about tolerating rb’s views. Rb, I’ve sentenced many boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn’t want to; felt I owed it to them.


p.s. rb, this is of course in jest. Bonus points if anyone gets the movie reference.

I read you loud and clear Mrs. Esterhouse.............Caddy Shack!!!!

@DOC & CP - LMAO!! That was the best of times!

Ray - just because ideas are not what some may want to hear we still need to have debate and discuss intellectually not emotionally. Never feel that way here as SROC said we are not MSM!

One thing is for sure - Europe, the Middle east, Northern Africa, Asia (Russia adn Mongolia) and japan are getting slammed. Just because it has not been snowy in our back yards doesn't mean teh Northern Hemisphere isnt having a good winter - we get caught in teh micro and need to look at he macro. I woudl be interested to hear the why to the what Ray. Is it tropical forcing? The PAC JET extension coming off Asia? Or is it more local to the NA continent or the Atlantic. Amazing how teh GFS was a cutter to Ontario 3 days ago then in Tenn now has corrected to the snowiest solution and may wind up over Greenwich, CT. GFS Para takes over in a week I believe or two? 2-3 I read

Winter weather will impact the area from Monday evening into Tuesday. Light to moderate snowfall amounts are expected throughout the area. The risk for more than 3” of snow in the NYC Metro is currently moderate (40-70%). pic.twitter.com/2AGeXFl14a

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) January 22, 2021

I respect RB's input into the system for 1/25-1/26 and I will wait to see how things trend over the weekend before getting hopes up. I would like to know what RB sees going forward that makes him want to pull the plug on winter though, I am always open to learning

phil155 wrote:I respect RB's input into the system for 1/25-1/26 and I will wait to see how things trend over the weekend before getting hopes up. I would like to know what RB sees going forward that makes him want to pull the plug on winter though, I am always open to learning

Agreed, but when rb speaks, it's as if Charlie Brown's teacher is talking, as I have no idea what he's saying half the time.

GFS says hello again

I have started a thread!