Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

Warm run on the 12z EURO, albeit NW of 0z

WPC Going All in

Euro was tucked at the 700 and 850. It closes off at the 500 and just meanders off the coast of NJ. Other guidance is not nearly that tucked. There is absolutely no consensus on anything ATTM. Very good hit except immediate coastal areas in NJ and very eastern LI.

This is probably going to be a long and large scoped event. Models keep showing that theme.

Every model has a signal now. What’s the pattern dictate? If we go by the seasonal trend then I wouldn’t get my hopes up TOO MUCH for coastal areas. There’s certainly things working to our advantage this time around that have not been present in prior storms. I think those N&W of NYC should get excited, though

The depth of this trough and the slow nature of the low makes me think snowfall was underdone over our area. Huge potential if the models have a clue.

Frank_Wx wrote:Every model has a signal now. What’s the pattern dictate? If we go by the seasonal trend then I wouldn’t get my hopes up TOO MUCH for coastal areas. There’s certainly things working to our advantage this time around that have not been present in prior storms. I think those N&W of NYC should get excited, though

not exactly what I wanted to hear even though I am ever so slightly north of NYC it's not far enough. Well it wouldn't effect my trip plans then. I've taken the stance whatever happens happens and good luck to everyone here.

Not gonna lie, this one is making me think long and hard, and that’s just a first glance lol been a while since I posted anything because I’ve been busy. I wanted to get a post out on Sunday regarding the last event, and that clearly didn’t happen. I think I’m going to try to sit down tonight after work and really look at this and try to put together a video with my thoughts for those interested, as there are a few different things I’d like to talk about, and it’s just easier in video format.

rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, this one is making me think long and hard, and that’s just a first glance lol been a while since I posted anything because I’ve been busy. I wanted to get a post out on Sunday regarding the last event, and that clearly didn’t happen. I think I’m going to try to sit down tonight after work and really look at this and try to put together a video with my thoughts for those interested, as there are a few different things I’d like to talk about, and it’s just easier in video format.

I'm on the edge of my seat for said motion picture!

Thoughts on possibly doing another Zoom, so that I can listen to intelligent people talk about the possibility of the next winter storm?

HUGE upside to this for sure - if we can get the West Coast Trough to keep moving west it will pull the Ridge with it allowing for this to deepen even further and further south. The NAO block retreating is a CLASSIC ARCHUMBALT EVENT (link: https://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/bio.html).

The relaxation on the chart of teh NAO as it rises


AO


PNA spiking


See it on these maps
EPS


GEFS


Markings aren't working sorry - if i can get it I will fix it for you.

So we have BIG upsdie potential here with lots of time,

FRANK DONT YOU DARE START A THREAD THAT SAYS MONTHRAZILLA, GODZILLA etc.- the last number of storm you have done for the board have gone in teh reverse 48/36 hours before. Just do a Storm Thread with the dates please and then when wait for it to come, deal? Deal!

For the sanity of the weather weenies do not do that to us LOL!!

HOT DOG this is bold - IF IT HOLDS!!

MOMA MIA - this maybe record breaking cold with snow on the ground in teh plains from teh blizzard this week if it can ...hold. Good to see this cold building in OH CANADA

Haha Al I won't do such thing!

Huge scope of threat area from WPC.

Al I was thinking the same thing. Great minds....Nothing personal Frank, just a tweak to the Ju Ju

amugs wrote:
FRANK DONT YOU DARE START A THREAD THAT SAYS MONTHRAZILLA,  GODZILLA etc.- the last number of storm you have done for the board have gone in teh reverse 48/36 hours before. Just do a Storm Thread with the dates please and then when wait for it to come, deal? Deal!

For the sanity of the weather weenies do not do that to us LOL!!

Too late. Frank said "MADONNE". I was chanting Scott's "Cautious optimism" mantra out loud, but the voice in my head kept screaming "MADONNE".

So now I just tried chanting "subsidence" to try and ground myself, but that just made me nauseous  

Frank said Madonnne in my head I'm saying"Let's Go Crazy" will keep monitoring the breaking updates

A very 'calming' write up by Mt Holly. Seems to conjur cautious optimism. Mt Holly is usually lighting quick to discount heavy snow potential, especially for the southern half of it's coverage area- Coastal Ocean County on south. So, their lack of pessimism, with even a RARE hint of optimism, is actually solid grounds for the cautious optimism. imo...lol



LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system
Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic

What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update.
Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the
low, but even with the minor differences, could result in
significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for
the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a blend of guidance.

Timing: There are still some large differences between models
with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as
early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday,
depending on how progressive the system is.

Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big
factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with
regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our
region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region.
If the track is further south, as some of the operational models
are trending, it could be more snow.

Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on
precipitation amounts through this event until at least
Saturday.

The 18Z GFS dumps one and a half feet of snow on LI and it's not even a consolidate nor well structured storm.  LOL!

The trough depth tells me this low is probably going to be a bit more structured than what the GFS is showing.  GFS is a bit lost as usual, but the main idea is long duration and potentially high impact event.

Heeh haw - OP runs are basically turds at this point ENS as we know from tracking and H5 is where we find out some answers.
Great click bait and fun entertainment maps of course.
@ Frank Grazi Mille!!

POSITIVE JUJU!!

Looking forward to further analysis from the best minds around (in my opinion, anyway...)

amugs wrote:Heeh haw - OP runs are basically turds at this point ENS as we know from tracking and H5 is where we find out some answers.
Great click bait and fun entertainment maps of course.
@ Frank Grazi Mille!!

POSITIVE JUJU!!

LOL The H5 was a complete mess on that op run and I thought it was amazing that the model was spitting out those kinds of numbers and qpf. Can you image what it would have showed with just some consolidation? Would have been 2' +.

New thread

Long nights ahead coming up

Snow88 wrote:Long nights ahead coming up

LOVE IT!

The winter-cancel forecasts for February are in danger. pic.twitter.com/Dq2LKV4wBJ

— Sam Lillo (@splillo) January 29, 2021

amugs wrote:

The winter-cancel forecasts for February are in danger. pic.twitter.com/Dq2LKV4wBJ

— Sam Lillo (@splillo) January 29, 2021

What does this mean?

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:

The winter-cancel forecasts for February are in danger. pic.twitter.com/Dq2LKV4wBJ

— Sam Lillo (@splillo) January 29, 2021

What does this mean?

It means two things.  First many of the long range forcasts had Feb the warmest month of the winter season flipping to a torch in fact.   If what you see here comes to fruition THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN.  Second, if this happen it WILL be cold and there will likely be several snow chances.